Global Information Inc. would like to present a new market research report, "Hybrid And Pure Electric Cars 2012-2022" by IDTechEx Ltd..
One year ago, it was widely believed that there were three key enabling technologies for hybrid and pure electric vehicles batteries, motors and circuitry (electrics, electronics, telematics) but "the battery is the car" in controlling cost and performance, so success revolves mainly around getting battery costs down and performance up, particularly improving energy density for pure electric vehicles . However, it is now clear that we are not only in the decade of the hybrid in terms of money spent, as IDTechEx and others predicted, but plug-in hybrids are key and the most aggressive manufacturers will be selling more plug-in than traditional hybrids by the end of the decade. For that to happen, that the price premium must be small or non-existent and the all-electric range be useful rather than a token gesture. That means battery energy density is now key for hybrids as well.
For 2012, the most important of the new key enabling technologies is range extenders. IDTechEx has the only report on these with ten year forecasts and yet over 30 million vehicles will be fitted with them in the next decade. It is quite wrong to think that the current practice of slightly modifying conventional piston engines and fitting them in hybrids will be acceptable for much longer. It is equivalent to teaching a tortoise to fly. Conventional engines must cope with huge load and torque variations: range extenders with almost none. Conventional engines are in use all the time: increasingly, hybrid engines are used only occasionally and, increasingly, they only need to supply electricity they do not need to rotate and they certainly do not have to employ a shaft to a separate generator in the clunky old "box on box" approach of yesteryear.
IDTechEx forecasts huge new markets opening up such as those for outdoor hybrid forklifts and military Evs. The predicted demise of vehicles dangerous to pedestrians on the sidewalk and to drivers on the road continues but there is always another one being designed by the romantics.
The hybrid and pure electric car business has lost a year due to delayed rollouts and other factors and it alone is highly vulnerable to the whims of government support for the next few years. All other sectors are largely on track but the mix is changing within sectors. For example, hybrid buses are set to be a huge business particularly in China, guaranteed by state and local government support and largely recession proof, so we now report on them separately. There is a real possibility that we shall have to revise upwards our forecasts for the industrial and commercial sector in one year from now. By contrast, the military is adopting Evs fast but facing budget cutbacks, making forecasting rather difficult. We keep a watching brief on the excellent new hybrid electric powertrains in seagoing leisure boats. Certainly, the percentage of the electric vehicles business that is beyond cars continues to rise beyond 50%.
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