Retail Banking Research (RBR) has just published the latest edition of its highly respected biennial global ATM survey, Global ATM Market and Forecasts to 2013. The 170 country report shows that last year, the worldwide ATM market grew by more than ever before - undermining reports that the days of cash are numbered.
The global ATM installed base expanded by over 130,000 units in 2007 - considerably higher than the previous record of 119,000 seen in 2000. By 2013, there are forecast to be over 2.5 million installations worldwide.
The impressive growth in the number of installations in several countries in central and eastern Europe (CEE) looks set to continue. The region is forecast to overtake Latin America to become the fourth largest regional market by 2013.
In more mature ATM markets, growth in new locations has slowed, but there has been healthy demand for replacement units, often upgrading terminals to higher specifications and more advanced functionality. RBRs new study forecasts almost two million ATM shipments between 2008 and 2013, and by the end of this period, replacements are expected to constitute more than two thirds of the total.
Developing Regions Drive Global ATM Market
Despite concerns over saturation and the future of cash, the global ATM market has continued to expand rapidly. More new machines were added worldwide during 2007 than ever before, with total installations approaching 1.8 million. The fast pace of growth is expected to continue for a number of years yet, driving the installed base to 2.5 million by 2013.
Growth continues to be stronger in the developing and emerging regions such as CEE and the Middle East and Africa (ME&A). In contrast, growth in the more mature markets of North America and western Europe has continued to slow, with the focus shifting towards replacement terminals.
Asia-Pacific remains the largest region and made the largest contribution to the growth in the worldwide ATM base last year, having added over 50,000 machines. China alone accounted for a staggering 40% of this increase. CEE also stood out, contributing 25% of growth despite only representing 7% of the global ATM market.
CEE is forecast to overtake Latin America by 2013
Rapid growth of the global installed base is expected to continue over the next five to six years. By 2013 RBR predicts that there will be more than 2.5 million ATMs installed worldwide, an increase of 41% on the current total. China is anticipated to continue its growth spurt and witness by far the largest absolute increase in its installed base between 2007 and 2013 as a result of continued economic development and banking liberalisation, as well as a rise in the number of inhabitants using banking services.
Both India and Russia are also likely to see substantial rises in their number of ATMs. In the case of India, this is expected to be caused by banks cutting of costs in delivering services to customers along with a fall in hardware costs and an improvement in the countrys communications and IT infrastructure. The major driving force in Russia is the improved customer confidence in the banking system underpinned by a stable economic and political environment. Hundreds of medium-sized and small towns in Russia are currently underserved by ATMs and hold significant potential for deployment over the next few years.
On a regional level, perhaps the most dramatic development is that, by 2013, CEE is expected to have overtaken Latin America to become the fourth largest region for ATMs worldwide. CEE together with ME&A are by far the fastest growing regions (in percentage terms), while Asia-Pacific is forecast to see the greatest absolute growth.
Replacements represent an ever increasing share of overall shipments
In total, nearly two million ATMs are likely to be shipped between 2008 and 2013, or an average of 320,000 per year. Different regions will of course play different roles; a large proportion of new installations will be shipped to rapidly expanding markets such as China, India, Russia, the Ukraine and Iran.
However, in the world as a whole, replacement machines will represent an increasingly important component of shipments. By 2013, two-thirds of all machines shipped worldwide are forecast to be replacements for existing ATMs. In most cases these replacement machines are a substantial upgrade in terms of performance and functionality, compared to the units they replace.
In the mature North American market, the total proportion of shipments represented by replacements is more than 90%, and is set to rise to 99% by 2013 as the deployment of new installations stalls.
In contrast, in the fast growing regions of CEE and ME&A, replacements are expected to account for less than half of shipments annually throughout the forecast period.
Five countries contain half the worlds ATMs
USA, Japan, China and Brazil have all now passed the 100,000 ATMs mark, while South Korea is not far behind with 90,000 units. This group is followed, at some distance, by Europes four largest markets and Canada.
Overall, the five largest ATM markets make up 52% of the worldwide installed base, and the top ten make up 68%.
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