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Market Research Report

Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

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Middle East and North Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
Published: December 7, 2018 Content info: 44 Slides
Description

"Telecoms revenue will increase because growth in spending on data services will offset the effects of increasing competition and market saturation."

We anticipate that there will be moderate growth of telecoms services revenue in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Demand will be tempered by market saturation, challenging socioeconomic conditions and fierce competition. This report provides a full update of our 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for MENA as a whole and for 12 key countries.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for the MENA region as a whole and 12 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Countries modelled individually

  • Algeria
  • Egypt
  • Iran
  • Iraq
  • Israel
  • Kuwait
  • Morocco
  • Oman
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tunisia
  • United Arab Emirates (UAE)

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 10.Telecoms revenue in Middle East and North Africa will increase despite increasing competition and market saturation, driven by strong demand for data
  • 11.Telecoms retail revenue will increase in most countries by 2023, primarily driven by the demand for mobile data and fixed broadband services
  • 12.Geographical coverage: we model 12 telecoms markets, which will account for 91.2% of telecoms service revenue (excluding pay TV) in MENA in 2023
  • 13.Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 14.Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 15.Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 16.Market context: the region is economically diverse and retail spend per capita on telecoms services is correlated with GDP trends
  • 17.Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 18.Key drivers at a glance for each country in the Middle East and North Africa
  • 19.Market overview: mobile services will account for most of the revenue in the region, but fixed broadband and business services will see the strongest revenue growth
  • 20.Mobile: accelerating LTE take-up and the launch of 5G mobile services in 2019 will contribute to traffic growth and will reduce the decline in ARPU
  • 21.Mobile: market saturation and economic slowdown will moderate the penetration growth
  • 22.Mobile: increasing demand for mobile data services and users' migration to contract plans will help to reduce the rate of ARPU decline
  • 23.Mobile: data revenue driven by the demand for digital services and an increase in 4G/5G connections will help to offset declines in legacy services revenue
  • 24.Fixed: NGA's share of broadband connections will grow significantly due to a large number of infrastructure investments
  • 25.Fixed: broadband penetration growth will continue in all countries because demand for high-speed connections is high and most markets are not yet saturated
  • 26.Fixed: IPTV/video service upsell and speed upgrades will ensure that ASPU levels continue to be stable
  • 27.Fixed: broadband connections and revenue will grow in the forecast period driven by network roll-out and service demand
  • 28.Business services: operator revenue from large enterprises will rise as the demand for data connectivity, IoT and other business services grows
  • 29.IoT: the IoT market will generate just over USD6 billion in revenue in 2023 supported by strong growth in the number of M2M connections
  • 30.Pay TV: revenue growth will be strong in the traditional and ‘OTT to the TV' segments
  • 31.Individual country forecasts
  • 32.Egypt: the telecoms sector is supported by promising economic conditions, the demand for 4G services and robust levels of infrastructure investment
  • 33.Egypt: strong demand for data will continue to boost 4G and fixed broadband take-up during the forecast period
  • 34.Egypt: 4G will continue to boost the mobile market, but competition in the fixed market is yet to operate on any meaningful level
  • 35.Egypt: forecast changes
  • 36.Kuwait: recent market recovery and investments in fixed infrastructure should provide a basis for future revenue growth
  • 37.Kuwait: 4G will account for an increasing share of mobile connections, driven by data demand, and 5G will be launched in 2019
  • 38.Kuwait: the mobile market is poised for revenue growth thanks to increase in data demand
  • 39.Kuwait: forecast changes
  • 40.Oman: revenue growth will be steady despite the challenging market conditions created by a third mobile entrant and regulatory pressure
  • 41.Oman: a third mobile player is expected to enter the market in 2019, which will support subscriber base growth but will erode market value
  • 42.Oman: the identity of the third mobile entrant is uncertain, while theoutlook for fixed broadband remains positive
  • 43.Oman: forecast changes
  • 44.Qatar: enduring economic sanctions have negatively affected the market revenue, but the total revenue forecast remains positive
  • 45.Qatar: strong demand for data, 4G/5G speeds and attractive data plans will help to increase the ratio of contract subscriptions and limit ARPU decline
  • 46.Qatar: demand for fast broadband services will drive telecoms revenue growth in the forecast period
  • 47.Qatar: forecast changes
  • 48.Saudi Arabia: telecoms revenue will be buoyed by an economic recovery against the challenging demographic indicators and increased competition
  • 49.Saudi Arabia: growing demand for data will offset the ongoing decline in revenue from legacy mobile services
  • 50.Saudi Arabia: mobile revenue will return to positive growth after several years of consistent decline
  • 51.Saudi Arabia: forecast changes
  • 52.UAE: an improved economic outlook will support a positive trend in telecoms revenue growth despite the slow population growth
  • 53.UAE: contract's share of mobile subscribers will increase, driven by data demand and the launch of 5G services that is expected in 2019
  • 54.UAE: infrastructural investments will help operators to find new growth areas beyond broadband connectivity
  • 55.UAE: forecast changes
  • 56.Methodology
  • 57.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 58.Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 59.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 60.Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 61.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 62.About the authors
  • 63.About the authors
  • 64.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 65.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 66.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017--2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2017 and
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 12 countries modelled individually in the Middle East and North Africa, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in the Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018--2023), by country, Middle East and North Africa
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), --2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Middle East and North Africa (million), --2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Middle East and North Africa (USD per month), --2023 List of figures
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Middle East and North Africa (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Middle East and North Africa (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Middle East and North Africa (USD billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Middle East and North Africa (GB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay-TV, Middle East and North Africa, 2013--
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Egypt (EGP billion), --2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Egypt, --2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Egypt (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Egypt, 2013--2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Egypt (EGP per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Egypt (MB per month), 2013--
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Egypt (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Egypt, 2013--2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kuwait (KWD million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kuwait (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kuwait, --2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kuwait (thousand), 2013--2023
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kuwait, 2013--2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kuwait (KWD per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kuwait (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kuwait (thousand), 2013--2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Kuwait, 2013--2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Oman (OMR million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Oman (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Oman, 2013--2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Oman (thousand), 2013--2023
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Oman, 2013--2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Oman (OMR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Oman (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Oman (thousand), 2013--2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Oman, 2013--2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Qatar (QAR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Qatar, 2013--2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, Qatar (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Qatar, 2013--2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Qatar (QAR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, Qatar (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, Qatar (thousand), 2013--2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Qatar, 2013--2023
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Saudi Arabia (SAR billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Saudi Arabia, 2013--2023
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 67: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Saudi Arabia, 2013--2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Saudi Arabia (SAR per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Saudi Arabia (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Saudi Arabia (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Saudi Arabia, 2013--2023
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, UAE (AED billion), 2013--2023
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, UAE (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, UAE, 2013--2023
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, UAE (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 76: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, UAE, 2013--2023
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, UAE (AED per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, UAE (MB per month), 2013--2023
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, UAE (million), 2013--2023
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, UAE, 2013--2023
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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