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Market Research Report

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020

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Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2015-2020
Published: March 29, 2016 Content info: 23 Slides
Description

"Mobile handset data and fixed broadband will be the key revenue drivers in the telecoms market in developed Asia-Pacific, while mobile voice and messaging, as well as fixed voice and narrowband, retail revenue will continue to decline."

According to our latest forecasts, the total telecoms service revenue for the developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) region will grow gradually from 2014 to reach USD220 billion in 2020.

The region has one of the world's highest mobile and fixed broadband penetration rates. This has enabled an increasing usage of over-the-top (OTT) players' apps and content, which has affected telecoms services such as voice and IPTV.

This report provides:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Developed Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2015-2020, previously published in October 2015) of more than 100 mobile and fixed KPIs for DVAP as a whole and for six key countries.
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2015)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageMajor KPIs 

Regions modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP)

Connections
Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

Revenue
Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, M2M
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTH/B, cable, BFWA, other

 

Fixed and mobile voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
  • Mobile data

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia Pacific) Sherrie Huang is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 15 key markets as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecasting, end-user case studies, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries in product marketing, project management, and research and consulting roles. Sherrie has a Master's degree in computer science from the National University of Singapore (NUS) and a Bachelor's degree in Electrical Engineering from Xiamen University, China.

Harsh Upadhyay (Analyst) Harsh contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. His research focuses on market tracking, competitive assessment, data forecasting, next-generation services and consumer behaviour analysis in the Asia-Pacific telecoms market. He also supports consulting projects and presents at industry events. Harsh's experience in the TMT industry is diverse, and he has a detailed understanding of the telecoms market in the region. He has previously worked with Frost & Sullivan and IDC as an analyst and consultant, and his clients include leading ICT firms and government bodies. Harsh holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Business Management from India.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6. The total telecoms service revenue for the developed Asia-Pacific region will grow gradually from 2014 to reach USD216 billion in 2020
  • 7. Overall telecoms retail revenue will increase by USD13 billion between 2014 and 2020, which represents a 0.9% CAGR
  • 8. Smartphones and LTE: Smartphone penetration will reach 86% in 2020; 4G will overtake 3G in 2015 to become the mainstream mobile technology
  • 9. Key regional changes since our last forecast: fixed broadband penetration will be higher; mobile handset data revenue will grow faster than expected
  • 10. Forecast revision: Fixed broadband and IPTV will contribute more revenue than expected, thanks to increased investment in broadband network
  • 11. Individual country forecasts
  • 12. Australia: nbn's focus on FTTB will help improve broadband connectivity across the country
  • 13. Hong Kong: Mobile handsets will saturate the market, but ARPU will remain strong due to market consolidation
  • 14. Japan: BFWA will have the largest share of fixed broadband connections; 4G migration will be faster than expected
  • 15. Singapore: Declining voice and mobile broadband revenue will bring down the overall telecoms retail revenue
  • 16. South Korea: Voice (fixed and mobile) and messaging revenue are shrinking faster than expected
  • 17. Taiwan: Mobile broadband will become less relevant and fixed broadband market competition will intensify, dampening ARPU
  • 18. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 19. About the authors
  • 20. About Analysys Mason
  • 21. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 22.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), developed Asia-Pacific, 2010-2020
  • Figure 2: Telecoms retail revenue growth by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets, and LTE's share of total connections (excluding M2M), developed Asia-Pacific, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014 and 2020
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Australia, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Australia
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2010-2020
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Hong Kong
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Japan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Japan
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2010-2020
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Singapore
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2010-2020
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Korea
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2010-2020
  • Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Taiwan
  • Figure 20: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, [Country], 2010-2020
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