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Market Research Report

Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021

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Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Interim Forecast Update 2016-2021
Published: March 7, 2017 Content info: 21 Slides
Description

"Telecoms retail revenue in developed Asia-Pacific will grow at a CAGR of 0.6% from 2015 to 2021 when it will reach USD178 billion."

Mobile handset data, IoT, fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will continue to increase during the forecast period. Revenue growth will be driven by operators investing in mobile network technologies, offering fixed-mobile converged bundles, upgrading fixed networks to high-speed technologies, and forging partnerships with OTT video players.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • an interim update of our 5-year forecast (Developed Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2016-2021, previously published in November 2016) of more than 175 mobile and fixed KPIs for DVAP as a whole and for 6 key countries
  • an explanation of the significant changes in this edition, compared with our previous forecasts.

Revisions to our previous forecasts occurred mainly for the following reasons:

  • market developments - based on recent market events and latest reported operator and regulator data (2Q 2016)
  • changes to the competitive and regulatory environment
  • changes to the macroeconomic outlook and exchange rates used to derive revenue in constant US dollars
  • changes to historical data because of newly available information.

COVERAGE

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Developed Asia-Pacific

Countries modelled individually

  • Australia
  • Hong Kong
  • Japan
  • Singapore
  • South Korea
  • Taiwan

Countries not modelled individually,
but modelled as part of the region as a whole

  • Brunei
  • French Polynesia
  • Guam
  • Macau
  • New Caledonia
  • New Zealand
  • Northern Mariana Islands

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Voice traffic

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, BNS
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

Mobile ARPU

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Harsh Upadhyay (Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. His research focuses on market tracking, competitive assessment, data forecasting, next-generation services and consumer behaviour analysis in the Asia-Pacific telecoms market. He also supports consulting projects and presents at industry events. Harsh's experience in the TMT industry is diverse, and he has a detailed understanding of the telecoms market in the region. He has previously worked with Frost & Sullivan and IDC as an analyst and consultant, and his clients include leading ICT firms and government bodies. Harsh holds a Master's and Bachelor's degree in Business Management.

Cai Shiyu (Research Analyst) contributes to Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme, and is based in our Singapore office. He had been involved in data collection process as well as analysis of telecoms market trends in developed and emerging Asia-Pacific. Before joining Analysys Mason, he worked as an intern with business development division of SAP, and conducted qualitative and quantitative research on cloud computing market. Shiyu holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and operations management at NUS Business School, Singapore.

Sherrie Huang (Research Programme Head, Asia-Pacific) is the lead analyst for Analysys Mason's Asia-Pacific research programme and is based in our Singapore office. Her research covers the entire Asia-Pacific region, and includes market data and forecasts for 17 key markets, as well as thematic reports covering key telecoms industry trends in the region including IoT/M2M, video and multi-play, and enterprise services. Sherrie has extensive expertise in fixed and mobile services and has covered the telecoms industry from various angles, including strategy, market sizing and forecast, end-user research, cost modelling and regulatory issues. She previously worked at IDC, Ovum and ZTE in various Asia-Pacific countries.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 5.Executive summary and regional forecasts
  • 6.Telecoms retail revenue for developed Asia-Pacific will grow steadily from USD172 billion in 2015 to USD178 billion in 2021
  • 7.Smartphones and 4G/5G: Smartphones and 4G will have become mainstream by the end of the forecast period
  • 8.Fixed services: FTTP/B connections will continue to increase during the forecast period, while DSL will decline
  • 9.Key regional changes since our previous forecast: the take-up of 4G services and multi-play bundles has increased
  • 10.Forecast revision: Traditional revenue streams will deplete more quickly than expected but fixed broadband and IPTV revenue will grow faster
  • 11.Individual country forecasts
  • 12.Australia: The change in termination rates has affected operator service revenue
  • 13.Hong Kong: Operators are embedding multiple features inset-top boxes to attract consumers and encourage IPTV take-up
  • 14.Japan: We have reduced our telecoms retail revenue forecastdue to competitive data pricing and declining voice revenue
  • 15.Singapore: Operators have dropped data prices and offer converged services to grow their postpaidbase
  • 16.South Korea: Operators are working on technology development and using newly acquired spectrum to monetise 4G
  • 17.Taiwan: Unlimited data plans have increased data traffic but hampered profitability and overall revenue
  • 18.About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 19.About the authors
  • 20.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 2: Smartphones as a percentage of handsets and 4G/5G's share of total connections (excluding IoT), developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 3: Fixed broadband connections by type, and fixed voice, IPTV and mobile broadband connections, developed Asia-Pacific, 2011-2021
  • Figure 4: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast for developed Asia-Pacific
  • Figure 5: Telecoms retail revenue forecast by service type and total service revenue, previous and new forecasts, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016 and 2021
  • Figure 6: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, total service revenue and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 7: Connections by type, and growth rates, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015 and 2021
  • Figure 8: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Australia, 2011-2021
  • Figure 9: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Australia
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Hong Kong, 2011-2021
  • Figure 11: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Hong Kong
  • Figure 12: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Japan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 13: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Japan
  • Figure 14: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Singapore, 2011-2021
  • Figure 15: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Singapore
  • Figure 16: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, South Korea, 2011-2021
  • Figure 17: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, South Korea
  • Figure 18: Telecoms retail revenue by service type, and total service revenue (retail and wholesale), new and previous forecasts, Taiwan, 2011-2021
  • Figure 19: Summary of major changes compared with our previous forecast, Taiwan
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