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Market Research Report

Pay-TV and OTT Video Services in Western Europe: Forecasts and Analysis 2013-2018

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 278728
Published Content info PPT and PDF (60 slides); Excel
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Pay-TV and OTT Video Services in Western Europe: Forecasts and Analysis 2013-2018
Published: August 13, 2013 Content info: PPT and PDF (60 slides); Excel
Description

We expect just 3% of households in Western Europe to take up OTT video services as their primary form of pay-TV in 2018, but this will vary significantly from one country to another, because of a wide range of factors.

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The pay-TV market is evolving, and boundaries are increasingly blurred between pay and free-to-air (FTA) TV services. Our forecasts take a holistic view of the market, and include paid-for OTT video as well as traditional pay-TV services.


This Report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services, spend and average spend per subscriber (ASPS)
  • forecasts split by platform: cable, IPTV, pay DTT, satellite, pay analogue terrestrial and OTT services
  • forecasts for 10 individual countries; 17 countries that are modelled as the 'rest of Western Europe'; and Western Europe as a whole
  • an overview of the trends and drivers in the market
  • top-level overviews of the key countries in the region
  • recommendations for traditional pay-TV operators and content owners and aggregators.

Geographical coverage

The following countries are modelled individually in this Report

  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • UK

Forecasts are also provided for 17 countries that are modelled together as the 'rest of Western Europe'; and Western Europe as a whole.

Data coverage

The Excel data annex provides detailed 5-year forecasts of the following KPIs in the pay-TV and OTT video services market in Western Europe.

KPIsSplit by
  • households
  • penetration
  • spend
  • average spend per subscriber
the following technologies: analogue cable
  • digital cable
  • pay analogue terrestrial
  • IPTV
  • pay DTT
  • satellite
  • OTT video services.
Pay-TV spend is also split into the following categories:
  • linear programming
  • pay-per-view (PPV)/video-on-demand (VoD) services (on-demand content).
  • services
  • primary
  • secondary.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7.Executive summary
  • 8.Executive summary: We expect 3% of households in Western Europe to use OTT video services as their primary pay-TV service in 2018
  • 9.Executive summary: OTT video will account for just over half of secondary pay-TV services in 2018
  • 10.Executive summary: Take-up of OTT video to the TV set will grow significantly in all countries, but with notable local differences
  • 11.Executive summary: Low-cost media streamers will displace games consoles as the main device used to access OTT video services on the TV
  • 12.Recommendations
  • 13.Recommendations [1]
  • 14.Recommendations [2]
  • 15.Recommendations [3]
  • 16.Western European forecast
  • 17.Our forecasts cover both primary and secondary pay-TV services
  • 18.New platforms will drive the growth of pay-TV services on the main TV set, while analogue cable services will disappear
  • 19.OTT video services and IPTV will boost pay-TV penetration rates
  • 20.OTT video services will account for four-out-of-five pay-TV net additions during the forecast period
  • 21.OTT video services will account for just over half of secondary pay-TV services by 2018, as pay-TV operator multi-room services decline
  • 22.Pay-TV spend will be boosted by the increasing take-up of OTT video services and transition to digital cable
  • 23.Pay-TV ASPS will be driven by the increased consumption of on-demand content
  • 24.ASPS is subject to conflicting pressures, which will make it increasingly challenging for pay-TV operators to monetise their subscriber base
  • 25.Low-cost media streamers will displace the games console as the main way of accessing OTT video services on the TV
  • 26.We expect that just over a fifth of OTT video services on the TV set will be used as a primary pay-TV service in 2018
  • 27.Spend on OTT video services to the TV set in Western Europe will increase thirteen-fold to EUR2 billion between 2013 and 2018
  • 28.Market drivers and inhibitors
  • 29.Overview of factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market
  • 30.Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [1]
  • 31.Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [2]
  • 32.Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [3]
  • 33.Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the market [4]
  • 34.Business environment
  • 35.OTT video services will become more popular as long-form online video moves from the PC to the TV
  • 36.Cable operators with large legacy analogue subscriber bases are under threat from a wide range of digital TV alternatives
  • 37.Pay-DTT services are losing their appeal in most of Western Europe after early successes
  • 38.Satellite operators are using broadband-connected STBs to deliver true on-demand services
  • 39.Telcos are gaining ground in pay-TV services
  • 40.Country-specific forecasts
  • 41.France is the country where IPTV has been most successful in Western Europe
  • 42.We expect OTT video services to have a limited impact in France
  • 43.Cable remains the dominant platform in Germany, but faces growing competition from IPTV and satellite
  • 44.Providers of OTT video services have had limited success in Germany so far, but we expect overall take-up to increase to 13% of households in 2018
  • 45.IPTV fails to gain scale in Italy, despite a head start compared to other Western European countries and the absence of cable infrastructure
  • 46.Leading telcos in Italy are focusing on OTT video services, rather than IPTV, driving take-up
  • 47.We do not expect the Spanish pay-TV market to recover until the end of the forecast period
  • 48.We expect OTT video services to the TV set to have limited appeal in Spain, reaching just 2% household penetration overall in 2018
  • 49.We expect IPTV to be the fastest-growing platform in the UK, because of the growing appeal of the services from BT and Talk Talk
  • 50.Having a common language with the USA attracts leading international OTT video services to the UK
  • 51.Market definition
  • 52.Regional breakdown used in this report
  • 53.Measures provided in the data annex
  • 54.Definitions used in this report
  • 55.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 56.About the author
  • 57.About Analysys Mason
  • 58.Research from Analysys Mason
  • 59.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Key metrics and categories featured in this forecast
  • Figure 2: Primary pay-TV services by platform, Western Europe, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 3: Secondary pay-TV services by platform, Western Europe, 2013 and 2018
  • Figure 4: Household penetration of OTT video services on the TV set, by country, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 5: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 6: Types of pay-TV services covered within this report
  • Figure 7: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 8: Pay-TV penetration of households, by platform, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 9: Pay-TV services, by platform, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 10: Secondary pay-TV services, by platform, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 11: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 12: Average spend per subscriber for traditional pay-TV services, by linear programming and on-demand content, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 13: Pressures on ASPS for pay-TV services
  • Figure 14: OTT video services to the TV set, by type of device, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 15: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 16: Spend on OTT video services to the TV set, by service type, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 17: Top-level overview of factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 18: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 19: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 20: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 21: Factors and trends that drive or inhibit the pay-TV market
  • Figure 22: Digital cable penetration, by country, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 23: Household penetration of pay-DTT services, by country, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 24: On-demand service spend as a percentage of satellite pay-TV service spend, Western Europe, 2013-2018
  • Figure 25: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, France, 2013-2018
  • Figure 26: Pay-TV spend, by platform, France, 2013-2018
  • Figure 27: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, France, 2013-2018
  • Figure 28: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Germany, 2013-2018
  • Figure 29: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Germany, 2013-2018
  • Figure 30: OTT video services to the TV set in Germany, by primary and secondary, Germany, 2013-2018
  • Figure 31: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Italy, 2013-2018
  • Figure 32: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Italy, 2013-2018
  • Figure 33: OTT video services on the TV set, by primary and secondary, Italy, 2013-2018
  • Figure 34: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, Spain, 2013-2018
  • Figure 35: Pay-TV spend, by platform, Spain, 2013-2018
  • Figure 36: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, Spain, 2013-2018
  • Figure 37: Pay-TV households, primary services by platform, UK, 2013-2018
  • Figure 38: Pay-TV spend, by platform, UK, 2013-2018
  • Figure 39: OTT video services to the TV set, by primary and secondary, UK, 2013-2018
  • Figure 40: Regional breakdown used in this report
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