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Market Research Report

Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

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Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: January 14, 2020 Content info: 44 Slides
Description

"The telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow strongly during the forecast period, driven predominantly by a rapid expansion in mobile data consumption."

The number of internet users in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow rapidly during the forecast period thanks to the strong take-up of 3G and 4G mobile data services. The fixed broadband market will remain small in absolute terms, but it will grow strongly in urban areas thanks to an increase in the size of the middle-class population and expanded infrastructure coverage.

This report and associated data annex provide:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

  Region modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

  Countries modelled individually

  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia

  Connections

  Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

  Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

  Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

  Revenue

  Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

  Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

  ARPU
Mobile

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. The telecoms revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa will grow strongly during the forecast period, mainly driven by an increasing appetite for mobile data
  • 10. A healthy economic prognosis for the region will lead to strong growth in disposable incomes, and will thus help to grow telecoms ARPU
  • 11. Geographical coverage: the adoption of next-generation access (NGA) fixed broadband will increase the most in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 14. Market context: GDP per capita will continue to act as one of the primary limiting factors of faster telecoms revenue growth
  • 15. Key mergers, acquisitions and market entries
  • 16. Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
  • 17. Market overview: mobile revenue growth will slow down as some markets begin to saturate; fixed broadband revenue growth will accelerate
  • 18. Mobile: the strong take-up of 3G and 4G (and to a lesser extent 5G) will lead to rapid growth in mobile data usage
  • 19. Mobile: mobile penetration will increase across the region as increasing network coverage is balanced by the decreasing need for multiple SIMs
  • 20. Mobile: growing data consumption and the migration to 4G services will have an inflationary effect on ARPU, but strong market competition will limit this effect
  • 21. Mobile: operators in SSA will shift towards a data-centric model as cheap smartphones and LTE coverage become ubiquitous
  • 22. Fixed: fixed-wireless will remain the dominant broadband access technology, but fibre will start to catch up in terms of the number of connections
  • 23. Fixed: fixed broadband penetration will only increase slightly during the forecast period
  • 24. Fixed: ASPU will remain largely stable on a regional level because increased NGA penetration will be offset by the natural decline in access prices
  • 25. Fixed: the penetration of fixed broadband will grow rapidly, but the adoption of the service will remain largely confined to a small niche of customers
  • 26. Specialist business services: the majority of business services revenue in SSA will be generated in Nigeria and South Africa
  • 27. IoT: the number of cellular M2M connections will grow significantly, but M2M will remain a niche segment
  • 28. Pay TV: total revenue growth will be driven by the increased take-up of DTH and pay-DTT services
  • 29. Individual country forecasts
  • 30. Ghana: mobile revenue growth will slow down during the forecast period; fixed broadband revenue will grow rapidly from a small base
  • 31. Ghana: mobile data traffic will more than triple over the forecast period thanks to rapid growth in LTE coverage and take-up
  • 32. Ghana: the mobile segment will begin to saturate and the adoption of fixed broadband will remain confined to a small niche of customers
  • 33. Ghana: forecast changes
  • 34. Kenya: fixed broadband service adoption will benefit from continued operator investment
  • 35. Kenya: the strong take-up of 4G and the introduction of 5G will drive mobile traffic; fibre will consolidate its dominance in the broadband segment
  • 36. Kenya: Safaricom will face stiff competition following the merger of Telkom Kenya and Airtel
  • 37. Kenya: forecast changes
  • 38. Nigeria: the mobile market will continue to show strong potential for growth despite uncertain economic conditions
  • 39. Nigeria: increasing smartphone affordability and operators' LTE network expansions will sustain the take-up of 4G services and drive data usage
  • 40. Nigeria: mobile revenue will grow strongly as penetration continues to increase at a steady pace
  • 41. Nigeria: forecast changes
  • 42. South Africa: the high disposable income will support the growth in the demand for telecoms services but will be offset by slow economic growth
  • 43. South Africa: the number of prepaid connections will grow, so the contract share of mobile connections will remain unchanged despite net growth
  • 44. South Africa: the number of 4G connections will grow in the short term, but 5G will be the technology of choice for high-value consumers by 2024
  • 45. South Africa: forecast changes
  • 46. Tanzania: mobile service revenue will grow moderately over the forecast period due to competition and new regulations
  • 47. Tanzania: price competition in the mobile market will drive ARPU down; fixed-wireless will be the most-widespread broadband technology in 2024
  • 48. Tanzania: there is potential for growth in the number of mobile connections, but the penetration of fixed services will remain limited
  • 49. Tanzania: forecast changes
  • 50. Uganda: the mobile market will gradually recover following a significant contraction in 2019
  • 51. Uganda: the 4G share of mobile connections will grow to over a third by 2024 due to the demand for data services
  • 52. Uganda: there is potential for a mobile market recovery, but poverty and a large rural population will hinder future growth
  • 53. Uganda: forecast changes
  • 54. Methodology
  • 55. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 56. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 57. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 58. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 59. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 60. About the authors
  • 61. About the authors
  • 62. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 63. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 64. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 2: Growth in telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018--2024
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and NGA share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018 and 2024
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2018
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2018) and future trajectory (2019--2024), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connections, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 21: Fixed internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 22b: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 23b: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from specialist business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2014--2024
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 31: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2014--2024
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2014--2024
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2014--2024
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 40: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2014--2024
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2014--2024
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2014--2024
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 49: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2014--2024
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2014--2024
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 58: 4G, 5G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic per connection, South Africa (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2014--2024
  • Figure 63: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2014--2024
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2014--2024
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2014--2024
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2014--2024
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2014--2024
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2014--2024
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2014--2024
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (GB per month), 2014--2024
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2014--2024
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue --current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2014--2024
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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