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Market Research Report

Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

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Sub-Saharan Africa Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
Published: August 8, 2018 Content info: 44 Slides
Description

"There are strong revenue growth opportunities in some of the telecoms markets in Sub-Saharan Africa; more than 1.0 billion mobile connections and a total service revenue of over USD46 billion are expected in the region by 2023."

Telecoms operators in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are increasingly focused on developing and monetising data services as the growth of legacy services starts to slow down and consumers increasingly adopt digital services. This report presents Analysys Mason's core forecasts for the region, analyses the key trends and assesses their impact during the next 5 years.

THIS REPORT AND ASSOCIATED DATA ANNEX PROVIDE:

  • a 5-year forecast of more than 180 mobile and fixed KPIs for SSA, as a whole and for 11 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile and fixed service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile and fixed operators.

COVERAGE:

Geographical coverageKey performance indicators

Region modelled

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

Countries modelled individually

  • Cameroon
  • Côte d'Ivoire
  • Ghana
  • Kenya
  • Nigeria
  • Rwanda
  • South Africa
  • Sudan
  • Tanzania
  • Uganda
  • Zambia

Connections

Mobile

  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone

Fixed

  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up
  • Narrowband voice, VoBB
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, 5G, other

Voice traffic
Fixed and mobile

  • Outgoing minutes, MoU

Revenue

Mobile

  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband,
  • Handset voice, messaging, data

Fixed

  • Service, retail
  • Voice, broadband, IPTV, dial-up, business services
  • DSL, FTTP/B, cable, BFWA, other

ARPU
Mobile

  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 8. Executive summary and recommendations
  • 9. Telecoms revenue will grow to USD46.2 billion with a CAGR of 1.5% between 2018 and 2023, amidst affordability, regulatory and macroeconomic challenges
  • 10. The positive growth in telecoms retail revenue will be largely proportional to the economic growth across SSA, except in Ghana, Nigeria and Sudan
  • 11. Geographical coverage: we model 11 telecoms markets, which will account for 69.4% of SSA's overall telecoms service revenue in 2023
  • 12. Key trends, drivers and assumptions for the mobile and fixed markets
  • 13. Key recommendations for telecoms operators
  • 14. Regional forecasts and cross-country comparison
  • 15. Market context: the 11 countries modelled provided 50.7% of the total population in SSA and 68.4% of tis telecoms service revenue in 2017
  • 16. Key drivers at a glance for each Sub-Saharan Africa market
  • 17. Market overview: mobile and fixed data services will drive revenue growth but mobile voice will continue to be a key contributor to service revenue
  • 18. Mobile overview: become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 16.9% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2020
  • 19. Mobile: 3G will become the predominant technology in SSA, while 4G will account for 16.9% of mobile connections in 2023; 5G is expected to launch in 2020
  • 20. Mobile: penetration will increase in most countries, driven by improved coverage and competition, but growth will slow down due to declining multi-SIM levels
  • 21. Mobile: spending on non-voice services will help to slow down the ARPU decline in most countries in SSA; ARPU in Sudan will increase due to inflation
  • 22. Mobile: SIM penetration growth rates will drop to single digits in most markets despite the sustained demand for mobile services
  • 23. Fixed: wireless access will contribute the largest share of broadband revenue, but fibre will have the highest growth rate
  • 24. Fixed: South Africa continues to lead in terms of fixed broadband penetration in the region thanks to its developed infrastructure and level of competition
  • 25. Fixed: increased popularity of wireless services will cause fixed broadband revenue to fall, while the growth of NGA will help to stabilize ASPU over the next 5 years
  • 26. Fixed: fixed broadband services offer strong growth opportunities from a small base but they will remain inaccessible to the majority of the region's population
  • 27. Business services: enterprise revenue is small, but is growing more rapidly in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other regions
  • 28. IoT: cellular M2M revenue growth will be substantial, but connectivity revenue will remain small
  • 29. Pay TV: the overwhelming majority of the pay-TV market will be split between satellite and pay-DTT platforms
  • 30. Individual country forecasts
  • 31. Ghana: non-voice services, including mobile money, will help to boost revenue despite the modest growth in the number of SIMs
  • 32. Ghana: reluctance to acquire spectrum will limit adoption of LTE, and fixed broadband will benefit from fibre network deployments
  • 33. Ghana: growth in the number of mobile connections will be modest, but a growing demand for data, financial services and fibre will boost revenue
  • 34. Ghana: we have revised the market ARPU to reflect MTN's new way of reporting active subscribers, resulting in a more optimistic growth outlook
  • 35. Kenya: the mobile market has potential for growth, and cable's popularity and fibre deployments will support the fixed market revenue growth
  • 36. Kenya: the accelerated adoption of 4G will drive traffic growth; cable will lose its dominant position in the fixed broadband market to fibre
  • 37. Kenya: there are solid revenue growth prospects for mobile money and data services; fixed broadband adoption will benefit from better access
  • 38. Kenya: there is a more optimistic outlook for fibre services thanks to recent deployments and a stronger than expected take-up
  • 39. Nigeria: difficult economic conditions will continue to affect the telecoms market in terms of investment and spend
  • 40. Nigeria: increased 4G coverage and improved smartphone affordability will support the demand for data services
  • 41. Nigeria: there is room for mobile revenue growth despite the crowded market; fibre will represent a third of fixed broadband connections by 2023
  • 42. Nigeria: the forecast for the number of mobile connections has been adjusted to take into consideration MTN's restatement of its subscribers
  • 43. South Africa: service revenue will grow with a modest CAGR of 1.0% between 2018 and 2023, driven by handset data and fixed broadband
  • 44. South Africa: there will be sustained growth in the mobile market thanks to a strengthening economy and the fixed market will benefit from investment
  • 45. South Africa: improved rural network coverage will help the number of mobile connections to grow, and investment will boost broadband take-up
  • 46. South Africa: the entry of 4G player Rain in 2017 has compelled us to reassess the prediction for the number of fixed and mobile 4G connections
  • 47. Tanzania: service revenue will reach TZS3.0 trillion in 2023, and more than 40.9% of this will be from mobile handset data
  • 48. Tanzania: the newly awarded 700MHz band for 4G usage will help to improve coverage and access to high-speed mobile data services
  • 49. Tanzania: the mobile market offers growth opportunities despite competition, while the fixed market will benefit from investment
  • 50. Tanzania: the fixed broadband market outlook is stronger, but the revenue for mobile voice interconnect is reduced due to a new MTR glide path
  • 51. Uganda: mobile handset data and fixed broadband d services will help to growth the service revenue to almost UGX3.5 trillion by 2023
  • 52. Uganda: 4G services will be adopted slowly because of a lack of affordability, limited network coverage and low smartphone penetration
  • 53. Uganda: there are opportunities for moderate mobile revenue growth, but fixed broadband holds more potential
  • 54. Uganda: we have increased our forecast for the number of fixed broadband connections, and have reduced the postpaid share of mobile connections
  • 55. Methodology
  • 56. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 57. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 58. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [1]
  • 59. Key drivers at a glance table: methodology [2]
  • 60. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 61. About the author
  • 62. Analysys Mason's consultiing an research are uniquely positioned
  • 63. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 64. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 2: Growth in both telecoms retail revenue and nominal GDP by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017-2023
  • Figure 3: 4G/5G share of mobile connections and next-generation access (NGA) share of fixed broadband connections by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017 and 2023
  • Figure 4: Summary of key trends, drivers and assumptions for Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 5: Metrics for the 11 countries modelled individually in Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017
  • Figure 6: Recent and upcoming market structure changes in Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 7: Major forecast drivers: current situation (2017) and future trajectory (2018-2023), by country, Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Figure 8: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 9: Mobile connections by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 10: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 11: Fixed connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 12: Mobile connections by generation, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 13: Mobile ARPU by type, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 14: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 15: Mobile data traffic per connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 16a: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 16b: Mobile penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17a: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 17b: Mobile ARPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 18: Broadband connections by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 19: Fixed retail revenue by service, Sub-Saharan Africa (USD billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 20: NGA broadband household penetration and NGA share of broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 21: Fixed Internet traffic per broadband connection, Sub-Saharan Africa (GB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 22a: Fixed broadband household penetration by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 23a: Fixed broadband access ASPU by country, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 24: Total market revenue from business services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 25: Total IoT value chain revenue by sector, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2023
  • Figure 26: Retail revenue from pay TV, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2014-2023
  • Figure 27: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Ghana (GHS billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 28: Mobile connections by type, Ghana (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 29: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Ghana, 2013-2023
  • Figure 30: Fixed connections by type, Ghana (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 31: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Ghana, 2013-2023
  • Figure 32: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Ghana (GHS per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 33: Mobile data traffic per connection, Ghana (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 34: Broadband connections by technology, Ghana (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 35: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Ghana, 2013-2023
  • Figure 36: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Kenya (KES billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 37: Mobile connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 38: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Kenya, 2013-2023
  • Figure 39: Fixed connections by type, Kenya (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 40: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Kenya, 2013-2023
  • Figure 41: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Kenya (KES thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 42: Mobile data traffic per connection, Kenya (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 43: Broadband connections by technology, Kenya (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 44: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Kenya, 2013-2023
  • Figure 45: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Nigeria (NGN trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 46: Mobile connections by type, Nigeria (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 47: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Nigeria, 2013-2023
  • Figure 48: Fixed connections by type, Nigeria (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 49: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Nigeria, 2013-2023
  • Figure 50: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Nigeria (NGN thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 51: Mobile data traffic per connection, Nigeria (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 52: Broadband connections by technology, Nigeria (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 53: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Nigeria, 2013-2023
  • Figure 54: Total fixed and mobile telecom service revenue, South Africa (ZAR billion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 55: Mobile connections by type, South Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 56: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, South Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 57: Fixed connections by type, South Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 58: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, South Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 59: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, South Africa (ZAR per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 60: Mobile data traffic pre connection, South Africa (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 61: Broadband connections by technology, South Africa (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 62: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, South Africa, 2013-2023
  • Figure 63: Total Fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Tanzania (TZS trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 64: Mobile connections by type, Tanzania (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 65: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Tanzania, 2013-2023
  • Figure 66: Fixed connections by type, Tanzania (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 67: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Tanzania, 2013-2023
  • Figure 68: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Tanzania (TZS thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 69: Mobile data traffic per connection, Tanzania (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 70: Broadband connections by technology, Tanzania (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 71: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Tanzania, 2013-2023
  • Figure 72: Total fixed and mobile telecoms service revenue, Uganda (UGX trillion), 2013-2023
  • Figure 73: Mobile connections by type, Uganda (million), 2013-2023
  • Figure 74: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Uganda, 2013-2023
  • Figure 75: Fixed connections by type, Uganda (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 76: 4G and contract share of mobile connections, Uganda, 2013-2023
  • Figure 77: Mobile ARPU, fixed voice ASPU and fixed broadband ASPU, Uganda (UGX thousand per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 78: Mobile data traffic per connection, Uganda (MB per month), 2013-2023
  • Figure 79: Broadband connections by technology, Uganda (thousand), 2013-2023
  • Figure 80: Total telecoms service revenue - current and previous forecasts, Uganda, 2013-2023
  • Figure 81a: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
  • Figure 81b: Methodology for attributing scores to each element in the key drivers table (current and future) and impact of high scores
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