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Market Research Report

Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 345545
Published Content info 12 Slides
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Mobile Services in Western Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: December 11, 2019 Content info: 12 Slides

"Revenue growth for the mobile market in Western Europe will be flat due to strong price competition in some countries in the region, as well as market saturation in terms of the number of connections."

Mobile service revenue in Western Europe (WE) will grow by less than 0.1% between 2019 and 2024 due to market saturation and heavy price competition in some countries within the region. This report examines key trends and drivers and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the region and for 16 individually modelled countries.

This report provides:

  • a 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Western European region and for 16 key countries
  • an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
  • an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries
  • a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.


Countries modelled individuallyDetailed country commentary
  • Austria
  • Belgium
  • Denmark
  • Finland
  • France
  • Germany
  • Greece
  • Ireland
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Norway
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • Sweden
  • Switzerland
  • UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • UK


Mobile connections
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Prepaid, contract
  • 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G
  • Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue
  • Service, retail
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset, mobile broadband, IoT
  • Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU
  • SIMs, handset
  • Prepaid, contract
  • Handset voice, data
Voice traffic
  • Outgoing minutes, MoU
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 5. Executive summary
  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. Worldwide: mobile data demand will drive telecoms revenue growth in most regions
  • 9. Regional trends
  • 10. Mobile revenue will remain flat due to declining revenue from legacy services and intense competition in the mobile markets in most countries in Western Europe
  • 11. Blended ARPU will increase marginally, thanks to growing data usage and customers' migration to contract plans
  • 12. Mobile penetration in WE will remain high, but it will decrease in most countries during the forecast period
  • 13. The evolution of ARPU will differ significantly between countries due to different market conditions and competitive landscapes
  • 14. Mobile service revenue will increase modestly over the forecast period; the launch of 5G services is expected to have a limited impact on revenue growth
  • 15. Country-level trends
  • 16. France: investments in 5G will lead to a considerable increase in the number of mobile connections, but with limited impact on revenue
  • 17. Germany: the 5G share of connections will reach 48% by the end of 2024
  • 18. Italy: intense competition will result in a decline in the mobile service revenue
  • 19. Spain: saturation among middle-income and premium customers will continue to drive a shift in strategy among operators
  • 20. UK: service enrichment from 5G will create limited opportunities for revenue growth
  • 21. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 22. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
  • 23. Examples of forecast input drivers
  • 24. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 25. About the authors
  • 26. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 27. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 28. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in WE and worldwide, USD (2018) billion
  • Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Western Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Western Europe (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Western Europe (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Western Europe (GB per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Western Europe, 2014-2024
  • Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, France (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, France (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Germany (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Germany (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Italy (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Italy (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Spain (EUR per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Spain (million), 2014-2024
  • Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, UK (GBP per month), 2014-2024
  • Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, UK (million), 2014-2024
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