Mobile Services in Central and Eastern Europe: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

"The majority of the mobile revenue growth in Central and Eastern Europe will come from Russia and Turkey, where LTE network expansion will lead to an increase in mobile data consumption."

This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides a comprehensive mobile telecoms market forecast for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 individually modelled countries including the Czech Republic, Poland, Russia and Turkey.

This report provides:

• a 5-year forecast of 206 mobile KPIs for the Central and Eastern European region and for 16 key countries

• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries

• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, which highlight similarities and differences between countries

• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE

Countries modelled individually	Detailed country commentary
Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Estonia Hungary Latvia Lithuania Montenegro Poland Romania Russia Serbia Slovakia Slovenia Turkey Ukraine	Czech Republic Poland Russia Turkey

DATA COVERAGE

Mobile connections	Handset, mobile broadband, IoT Prepaid, contract 2G, 3G, 4G, 5G Smartphone, non-smartphone
Mobile revenue	Service, retail Prepaid, contract Handset, mobile broadband, IoT Handset voice, messaging, data
Mobile ARPU	SIMs, handset Prepaid, contract Handset voice, data
Voice traffic	Outgoing minutes, MoU

Table of Contents

• 5. Executive summary

• 6. Executive summary

• 7. Worldwide trends

• 8. Worldwide: mobile data demand will drive telecoms revenue growth in most regions

• 9. Regional trends

• 10. The growth in the mobile handset data revenue will outstrip the declines in the mobile voice and mobile messaging revenue

• 11. The total number of mobile connections will decline by 2024 due to market saturation and migration from multi-SIM prepaid plans to contract services

• 12. Penetration in CEE will plateau, mainly due to market saturation

• 13. Mobile ARPU will increase in CEE, stimulated by LTE expansions and the associated increase in data usage

• 14. The outlook for mobile ARPU and handset revenue is positive thanks to increasing LTE-A coverage and the growing adoption of contract subscriptions

• 15. Country-level trends

• 16. Czech Republic: the mobile market is relatively uncompetitive but this is likely to change following the introduction of a new mobile operator

• 17. Poland: the mobile market is competitive; operators are focusing on offering converged services

• 18. Russia: mobile revenue will grow modestly thanks to enhancements in service quality and favourable macroeconomic conditions

• 19. Turkey: the expansion of LTE network coverage will lead to higher mobile data usage and, in turn, will help to increase mobile ARPU

• 20. Forecast methodology and assumptions

• 21. Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge

• 22. Examples of forecast input drivers

• 23. About the authors and Analysys Mason

• 24. About the authors

• 25. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned26.Research from Analysys Mason

• 27. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 2: Mobile service revenue in CEE and the rest of the world, 2014-2024
• Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, Central and Eastern Europe (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, Central and Eastern Europe (EUR per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, Central and Eastern Europe (GB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, Central and Eastern Europe, 2014-2024
• Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, Czech Republic (CZK per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, Czech Republic (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Poland (PLN per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Poland (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Russia (RUB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Russia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Turkey (TRY per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Turkey (million), 2014-2024