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Market Research Report

FTTx in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 351706
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FTTx in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2015-2020
Published: February 5, 2016 Content info: 32 Slides
Description

"The emerging markets of Asia-Pacific accounted for 70% of all additional FTTP coverage worldwide in 2015 - China alone accounted for more than half."

Middle-income emerging economies in the Asia-Pacific region represent a huge potential market for FTTx networks and services, and some national plans are already enjoying demonstrable success. Converged fixed-mobile-video services will become the new paradigm for consumers in previously mobile-dominated markets.

The forecasts include the following metrics:

  • coverage (premises passed)
  • conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • capex (split into network and connection)

Split by technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL
  • FTTB/VDSL
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator).

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually and included in this report

  • China
  • India
  • Indonesia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 6.Executive summary
  • 7.Worldwide trends
  • 8.Worldwide: By 2020, over half the world will have access to FTTx or cable, which will make up 80% of broadband connections
  • 9.Worldwide: Investment in FTTP will peak in 2015, and follow different paths in developed and emerging economies
  • 10.Worldwide: Interest in copper acceleration is strong in Europe, but much of the rest of the world is going straight to FTTP
  • 11.Worldwide: Older, purely cost-based, models are giving way to newer thinking about the optimal use of capital resources
  • 12.Worldwide: The service use case for FTTx is compelling, and the multi-service use case for FTTP will shape technology strategy
  • 13.Worldwide: Interest in FTTx is growing in emerging economies
  • 14.Worldwide: Conversion rates for fibre-based access are improving, and forced migration from legacy access is increasing
  • 15.Regional trends
  • 16.Emerging Asia-Pacific: The success of centralised state planning leaves new entrants with difficult choices
  • 17.Emerging Asia-Pacific: The major national schemes for NGA conversion have enviable take-up rates
  • 18.Country-level trends
  • 19.China: There are few signs of slowdown in the supply of fixed NGA to the Chinese domestic market
  • 20.India: NGA coverage remains very low, and there is little impetus for change
  • 21.Indonesia: The ambition of Telkom's FTTx roll-out makes competition difficult
  • 22.Malaysia: HSBB is proof-of-concept for middle-income FTTx
  • 23.Philippines: TD-LTE is paving the way for FTTP
  • 24.Thailand: Leading operators are looking to fibre as a new source of revenue and as a way to boost postpaid penetration
  • 25.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 26.Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 27.Methodology for coverage and conversion
  • 28.Methodology for capex
  • 29.About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 30.About the author
  • 31.About Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: NGA premises passed by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 2: Active NGA connections, by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 3: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, worldwide, 2011-2020
  • Figure 4: NGA coverage by technology, worldwide, 2011-2020
  • Figure 5: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA's share of connections, worldwide, 2011-2020
  • Figure 6: FTTx capex by market type, and availability and affordability of NGA, worldwide, 2013-2020
  • Figure 7: Incumbent operator FTTC or FTTB coverage, by region, 2015 and 2020
  • Figure 8: Cost of deploying FTTx by centile, new and old cost models (illustrative)
  • Figure 9: Bandwidth consumed by pixel resolution and type of MPEG-4 compression
  • Figure 10: Emerging economies' shares of worldwide FTTx premises passed and connected, and emerging economies' FTTx coverage, 2011-2015
  • Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA by technology, worldwide, 2011-2015
  • Figure 12: FTTx net additions by technology, worldwide, 2011-2015
  • Figure 13: NGA coverage by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 14: FTTx capex by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 15: Active connections per premises, by technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2020
  • Figure 17: FTTx premises passed and connected, conversion rates, China, 2014-2020
  • Figure 18: FTTx connections and coverage, China, 2013-2020
  • Figure 19: FTTx connections and coverage, India, 2013-2020
  • Figure 20: FTTx connections and coverage, Indonesia, 2013-2020
  • Figure 21: FTTx connections and coverage, Malaysia, 2013-2020
  • Figure 22: FTTx connections and coverage, Philippines, 2013-2020
  • Figure 23: FTTx connections and coverage, Thailand, 2013-2020
  • Figure 24: Regional breakdown used in this report
  • Figure 25: Coverage and conversion model outline
  • Figure 26: Capex model outline
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