Mobile Services in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

"Mobile service revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will continue to grow, primarily due to the increasing mobile penetration and strong demand for data services."

Emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) contains some of the most dynamic telecoms markets and fastest growing economies in the world. This report examines the key trends and drivers, and provides comprehensive telecoms market forecasts and insights for the region and for six modelled countries: China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.

This report and associated data annex provide:

• a 5-year forecast of 118 mobile KPIs for emerging Asia-Pacific as a whole and for 12 key countries
• an in-depth analysis of the trends, drivers and forecast assumptions for each type of mobile service, and for key countries
• an overview of operator strategies and country-specific topics, in order to highlight similarities and differences by means of a cross-country comparison
• a summary of results, key implications and recommendations for mobile operators.

Geographical coverage

Countries modelled individually

• Bangladesh
• Cambodia
• China
• India
• Indonesia
• Malaysia
• Nepal
• Pakistan
• Philippines
• Sri Lanka
• Thailand
• Vietnam

Data coverage

Table of Contents

• 5.Executive summary
• 6.Executive summary
• 7.Worldwide trends
• 8.Worldwide: mobile handset data services will drive telecoms retail revenue growth worldwide
• 9.Regional trends
• 10.The total telecoms service revenue will continue to grow, driven by the increasing number of connections
• 11.Monthly data consumption per connection will increase six-fold during 2018-2024, but the contract share of mobile connections will only grow marginally
• 12.Mobile penetration rates will increase in most countries, and will only decline in Cambodia and Malaysia due to a fall in multi-SIM ownership
• 13.ARPU will decline in most countries during the forecast period due to growing competition and regulatory pressure
• 14.Increasing subscriber numbers and rising mobile data revenue will support the growth of mobile service revenue over the forecast period
• 15.Country-level trends
• 16.China: the Chinese telecoms market is the most-advanced telecoms market in EMAP
• 17.Indonesia: the number of mobile connections will recover rapidly following the large drop due to the 2018 prepaid SIM card registration regulation
• 18.Malaysia: high levels of competition will limit the total telecoms revenue growth during the forecast period
• 19.Philippines: the expected entry of a third MNO and a challenging regulatory environment will lead to a moderate increase in mobile retail revenue
• 20.Thailand: Thailand has some of the highest mobile data traffic per connection figures in the region
• 21.Vietnam: price competition in the prepaid mobile segment will lead to a decline in mobile service revenue
• 22.Forecast methodology and assumptions
• 23.Our forecast model is supported by sound market knowledge
• 24.Examples of forecast input drivers
• 25.About the authors and Analysys Mason
• 26.About the authors
• 27.Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
• 28.Research from Analysys Mason
• 29.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

• Figure 1: Telecoms and pay-TV retail revenue by type and total service revenue, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 2: Mobile service revenue by location, emerging Asia-Pacific and worldwide, 2014-2024
• Figure 3: Telecoms retail revenue by mobile service type, and mobile ARPU, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 4: Telecoms retail revenue and growth rate by service type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 5: Mobile connections by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 6: Mobile connections by generation, emerging Asia-Pacific (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 7: Mobile ARPU by type, emerging Asia-Pacific (USD per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 8: Contract share of mobile connections (excluding IoT), emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 9: Mobile data traffic per connection, emerging Asia-Pacific (MB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 10a: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 10b: Mobile penetration by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 11a: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 11b: Mobile ARPU by country, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2014-2024
• Figure 12: Mobile ARPU, China (CNY per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 13: Mobile connections by type, China (billion), 2014-2024
• Figure 14: Mobile ARPU, Indonesia (IDR thousand per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 15: Mobile connections by type, Indonesia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 16: Mobile ARPU, Malaysia (MYR per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 17: Mobile connections by type, Malaysia (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 18: Mobile ARPU, Philippines (PHP per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 19: Mobile connections by type, Philippines (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 20: Mobile ARPU, Thailand (THB per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 21: Mobile connections by type, Thailand (million), 2014-2024
• Figure 22: Mobile ARPU, Vietnam (VND thousand per month), 2014-2024
• Figure 23: Mobile connections by type, Vietnam (million), 2014-2024