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Market Research Report

FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

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FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
Published: December 14, 2017 Content info: 18 Slides
Description

"FTTx subscriber take-up is growing worldwide, but the rates vary according to country and region."

Dynamics in fixed broadband markets are changing as growing numbers of subscribers switch to FTTx networks. This report examines how quickly the migration to FTTx is occurring and what the wider implications of this transition are.

This report provides:

  • 5-year forecasts for subscriber connection numbers and connection rates for flavours of FTTx and cable (DOCSIS 3.0/3.1) in eight regions and in 64 individual markets
  • analysis of the key trends, drivers and inhibitors of FTTx subscriber growth.

KEY METRICS:

  • Subscriber connection numbers
  • Subscriber connections per premises passed
  • Split by architecture/technology:
    • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
    • FTTB/LAN
    • FTTP (split into incumbent and alternative operator)
    • cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

RegionCountries
Western EuropeAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
Central and Eastern EuropeBulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
Middle East and North AfricaIsrael, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
Sub-Saharan AfricaGhana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
Emerging Asia-PacificChina, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
Developed Asia-PacificAustralia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
North AmericaCanada, USA.
Latin AmericaArgentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR:

Stephen Wilson (Principal Analyst) works on our Network Investment Strategies and Network Traffic research programmes. His research covers the implications for different stakeholders of new wireless and fixed technologies. He is based in Analysys Mason's Singapore office, from where he closely follows market developments in the Asia-Pacific region. Stephen has more than 8 years of experience in the telecoms sector and is a graduate in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from St Catherine's College, Oxford University.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. NGA will dominate the fixed broadband market in 2022 and
  • FTTP will continue to increase its share of connection
  • 9. Forced migration has driven FTTP take-up rates to very high
  • levels in some emerging markets
  • 10. In markets dominated by wholesale national broadband
  • networks, FTTx take-up is growing steadily after a slow start
  • 11. Energy companies have seen very mixed take-up rates for their
  • FTTP deployments
  • 12. Fibre specialist ISPs are facing an increasingly difficult market,
  • which is making market share growth challenging
  • 13. FTTx subscribers have significantly lower churn than non-NGA
  • fixed broadband subscribers
  • 14. Incumbents that are slow to proceed with FTTP deployments
  • face political and regulatory risks and potential wholesale losses
  • 15. Dramatic increases in FTTx coverage have had a limited
  • impact on cable broadband connection trends
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. Western Europe: FTTx conversion remains challenging for
  • some Western European incumbents
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: NGA take-up rates will experience
  • only limited growth in the period to 2022
  • 20. Middle East and North Africa
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa: NGA connections will be used by
  • just 12% of households in MENA at the end of 2022
  • 22. Sub-Saharan Africa
  • 23. Sub-Saharan Africa: Take-up rates for NGA will reach 30% of
  • premises passed at the end of 2022, lower than other regions
  • 24. China and merging Asia-Pacific
  • 25. China: Infrastructure competition and forced migration have
  • driven FTTP take-up rates to very high levels
  • 26. Rest of emerging Asia-Pacific: Subscriber connection rates
  • have generally been good but there are exceptions
  • 27. Developed Asia-Pacific
  • 28. Developed Asia-Pacific: The migration to incumbent fibre infrastructure continues to be slow in some advanced markets
  • 29. North America
  • 30. North America: NGA competition is likely to become more
  • intense in Canada and the USA
  • 31. Latin America
  • 32. Latin America: Cable operators will continue to dominate the
  • NGA market in the period to 2021
  • v33. Appendix
  • 34. The retail take-up on FTTP networks in which energy companies have been involved has been highest for LyseTele in Norway
  • 35. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 36. Geographical scope: Forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 37. Definitions
  • 38. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 39. About the authors
  • 40. About Analysys Mason
  • 41. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 42. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Fixed broadband active connections, by technology, and NGA share of connections worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 2: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2012-2022
  • Figure 3: NGA conversion rates, by region, 2014-2022
  • Figure 4: ADSL connections as a proportion of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2012-2016
  • Figure 5: FTTx conversion rates for incumbent wholesale operators, by country, 4Q 2009-4Q 2017
  • Figure 6: Energy company involvement in retail FTTP networks
  • Figure 7: FTTP/B subscriber market share by lean ISP, end of 2016 and end of 2Q 2017
  • Figure 8: Monthly fixed broadband churn rate by selected operator, 2015-2Q 2017
  • Figure 9: Iceland fixed broadband market share, 2012-2016
  • Figure 10: Cable and NGA connections and year-on-year change in cable connections, Western Europe, 2012-2022
  • Figure 11: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Western Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 12: Active connections per premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 13: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 14: Active connections per premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2015-2022
  • Figure 15: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 16: Active connections per premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 17: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx , Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 18: Active connections per premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2015-2022
  • Figure 19: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, China, 2015-2022
  • Figure 20: Active connections per premises, by technology, China, 2015-2022
  • Figure 21: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 22: Active connections per premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 23: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 24: Active connections per premises, by technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2015-2022
  • Figure 25: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 26: Active connections per premises, by technology, North America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 27: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 28: Active connections per premises, by technology, Latin America, 2015-2022
  • Figure 29: Conversion rate of FTTP premises passed, selected energy company FTTP deployments
  • Figure 30: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 31: Definitions used in this report
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