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Market Research Report

Pay-TV Services Worldwide: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 617179
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Pay-TV Services Worldwide: Trends and Forecasts 2017-2022
Published: March 22, 2018 Content info: 28 Slides
Description

"Cable growth has peaked, satellite will grow a little, but IPTV will make the greatest gains between 2017 and 2022."

Retail revenue from pay TV and OTT video to the TV will grow by USD50 billion between 2017 and 2022, but 85% of this growth will be from OTT video. Worldwide pay-TV penetration will grow to 59%, but North America will suffer from significant cord-cutting.

This report provides:

  • forecasts for the number of pay-TV households, services, spend and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and OTT video delivered to the TV set
  • forecasts for eight regions
  • an overview of the trends and drivers in the market.

Geographical coverage

Regions modelled

  • Western Europe
  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • North America
  • Latin America
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 8. Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
  • 9. Worldwide: pay-V penetration will grow to 57% of households; the emerging Asia-Pacific region will be responsible for most of this growth
  • 10. Worldwide: retail revenue form pay TV and OTT video to the TV will grow by USD50 billion from 2017 to 2022, but 85% of growth will be from OTT
  • 11. Worldwide: cable growth has peaked; satellite will grow a little, but IPTV will make the greatest gains between 2017 and 2022
  • 12. Worldwide: worldwide pay-TV penetration will be the most significant
  • 13. Regional forecasts
  • 14. Western Europe: Sky's OTT launch will trigger a significant shift to OTT-to-the-TV viewing in three of the region's biggest markets
  • 15. Western Europe: IPTV will grow as the rest of the market contracts
  • 16. Western Europe: Sky's OTT launch will trigger a significant shift to OTT-to-the-TV viewing in three of the region's biggest markets
  • 17. Central and Eastern Europe: traditional pay-TV spend will grow, but OTT video spend will dramatically outpace that of IPTV
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe: IPTV will continue to bring new customers to pay TV
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: Affordability and availability of illegal services will limit the demand for OTT video
  • 20. Middle East and North Africa: revenue growth will be strong in both traditional and OTT-to-the-TV segments
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa: strong growth in IPTV will challenge the long-established dominance of regional satellite broadcasters
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa: the popularity of illegal streaming will be a barrier to OTT adoption
  • 23. Sub-Saharan Africa: satellite will dominate the growing pay-TV market
  • 24. Sub-Saharan Africa: the overwhelming majority of the pay-TV market will be split between satellite and pay-DTT platforms
  • 25. Sub-Saharan Africa: affordability and infrastructure issues will prevent OTT to the TV from becoming a mass market proposition
  • 26. Emerging Asia-Pacific: IPTV will thrive, but the greatest winner in terms of spend and subscriber growth will be OTT to the TV set
  • 27. Emerging Asia-Pacific: strong growth in IPTV and satellite services will be at the expense of cable
  • 28. Emerging Asia-Pacific: OTT growth will be strong, but not at the expense of traditional pay TV in most markets in the short-to-medium term
  • 29. Developed Asia-Pacific: revenue growth will be low as markets are saturated and OTT competition is growing
  • 30. Developed Asia-Pacific: the popularity of free-to-air broadcasting will limit the future growth or pay TV
  • 31. North America: cord-cutting will continue, but premium users who retain their services will prevent a substantial ASPU decline
  • 32. North America: cable operators will drive migration to managed IP delivery
  • 33. North America: cable operators will drive migration to managed IP delivery
  • 34. North America: OTT services will continue to grow in popularity as more producers launch their own alternatives
  • 35. Latin America: pay-TV markets will grow further, as cable continues to be the leading technology
  • 36. Latin America: demand for local and premium content will limit the decline of a relatively high ASPU
  • 37. Latin America: the number of OTT-to-the-TV users will more than double during the forecast period
  • 38. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 39. Our spend forecasts focus on linear and on-demand content to the TV
  • 40. Our definition of 'OTT-video-to-the-TV' services
  • 41. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 42. About the authors
  • 43. About Analysys Mason
  • 44. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 45. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections and the number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, 20221
  • Figure 2: Traditional pay-TV and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, worldwide, 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2016-2022
  • Figure 4: The number of pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2016-2022
  • Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2016-2022
  • Figure 6a: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 6b: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 7: Traditional pay-TV and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, Western Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 8: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, Western Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 9: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, Western Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 10: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Western Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 11a: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Western European countries, 2013-2022
  • Figure 11b: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Western European countries, 2013-2022
  • Figure 12: Traditional pay-TV and OTT-video-to-the-TV retail revenue, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 13: Pay-TV spend and CAGR by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 14: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, Central and Eastern Europe, 2016-2022
  • Figure 15: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 16: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 17: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Central and Eastern Europe, 2013-2022
  • Figure 18: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 19: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 20: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Middle East and North Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 22: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, Middle East and North Africa countries, 2013-2022
  • Figure 23: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, 2013-2022
  • Figure 24: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 25: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 26: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2016-2022
  • Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 28: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 29: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2013-2022
  • Figure 30: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 31: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, emerging Asia-Pacific, 2013-2022
  • Figure 33: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, emerging Asia-Pacific countries, 2013-2022
  • Figure 34: The number of OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, emerging Asia-Pacific countries, 2013-2022
  • Figure 35: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2022
  • Figure 36: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 37: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, developed Asia-Pacific, 2016-2022
  • Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2022
  • Figure 39: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, developed Asia-Pacific, 2013-2022
  • Figure 40: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, North America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 41: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 42: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, North America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 43: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, North America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 44: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, North America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 45: Pay-TV spend by service type and ASPU for traditional and OTT-to-the-TV-set services, Latin America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 46: Pay-TV total spend and growth rates by service type, Latin America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 47: Pay-TV connections and growth rates by type, Latin America, 2016-2022
  • Figure 48: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, Latin America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 49: The number of traditional pay-TV connections and OTT-to-the-TV-set subscriptions as a percentage of the number of households, Latin America, 2013-2022
  • Figure 50: Scope of our pay-TV spend forecasts
  • Figure 51: Definitions of OTT video services to the TV
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