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Market Research Report

Fixed-Mobile Convergence: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023

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Fixed-Mobile Convergence: Trends and Forecasts 2018-2023
Published: March 22, 2019 Content info: 29 Slides
Description

"We expect video to be increasingly optional in fixed-mobile converged bundles, and there will be some strong connectivity-focused offers from challengers."

This report analyses multi-play services in 14 countries in Europe and Asia-Pacific. It includes forecasts for the adoption of fixed broadband and pay-TV bundle as well as expectations for the take-up of, and revenue from, fixed-mobile converged (FMC) bundles in these countries.

THIS FOLLOWING SHOULD READ THIS REPORT.

  • Integrated operators that have recently invested in fixed-mobile convergence as part of their retail strategy and want to understand its growth potential.
  • Mobile-only or fixed-only players that want to understand what their addressable market for non-converged services will be by 2023.
  • Investors who observe, or have stakes in, the current and potential consolidation developments related to convergence in Europe.
  • Non-European operators that want to know more about the drivers of multi-play and FMC services, and wish to gain access to benchmarks.

Geographical coverage

  Western Europe

  • Belgium
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • UK

  Central and Eastern Europe

  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Turkey

  Asia-Pacific

  • Australia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • . 6. Executive summary
  • 7. Several factors affect the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
  • 8. Scorecard of incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
  • 9. The take-up rate of FMC bundles will vary; FMC household penetration will be highest in Spain, France and Portugal [1]
  • 10. The take-up rate of FMC bundles will vary; FMC household penetration will be highest in Spain, France and Portugal [2]
  • 11. Recommendations
  • . 12. Regional trends
  • 13. Southern European countries continue to lead the way in fixed-mobile convergence take-up
  • 14. Integrated markets have the strongest potential for FMC take-up, but this does not guarantee that they will have the highest levels of convergence
  • 15. Mobile-centric operators will benefit from the increased availability of competitive wholesale for gigabit access and the arrival of 5G fixed-wireless access (FWA)
  • 16. FMC bundle penetration has almost reached saturation in the most developed markets, but the number of FMC subscriptions will grow by at least 10% elsewhere
  • 17. Demographic factors will continue to play an important role in the penetration of FMC bundles
  • 18. Pay TV is the focal point of fixed-mobile convergence in many countries but there are signs that this is beginning to change
  • 19. The rise of third-party OTT video, exclusivity issues and changing viewing behaviour mean that operators can launch FMC bundles that do not include pay TV
  • 20. Challenger operators will put pressure on ARPA in several markets
  • 21. Competition is shifting to the lower end of some advanced markets; operators are now using sub-brands in order to take advantage of brand segmentation
  • 22. Convergence is yet to gain strong momentum in Asia-Pacific, but take-up will increase strongly during the forecast period
  • . 23. Western Europe
  • 24. Belgium: Proximus and Telenet dominate the market, despite Orange's launch of fixed-mobile convergence
  • 25. France: operators will focus on multi-brand strategies in order to insulate themselves from intensified competition in the value segment
  • 26. Germany: the take-up of FMC services will grow steadily but will remain relative low compared to that in other Western European countries
  • 27. Italy: the entry of the low-cost mobile operator Iliad caused integrated operators to focus more on their FMC strategies
  • 28. Netherlands: the merger of T-Mobile and Tele2 should boost competition in the Dutch telecoms market
  • 29. Portugal: the FMC market has settled following a period of explosive growth
  • 30. Spain: growth in the number of FMC accounts will largely be restricted to the value segment, leading to a modest decline in ARPA
  • 31. UK: the future of FMC penetration is dependent on the strategy of BT/EE, the only truly converged operator in the market
  • . 32. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 33. Poland: market fragmentation will limit the potential for fixed-mobile convergence
  • 34. Romania: the fragmented FMC market will gradually converge around the middle-income segment
  • 35. Turkey: increasing pay-TV investment is leading to an increase in the number of quad-play bundles
  • . 36. Asia-Pacific
  • 37. Australia: the shift towards convergence has yet to be fully realised
  • 38. Malaysia: only one operator currently offers a truly converged bundle
  • 39. Philippines: growing competition in the mobile market is expected to increase operators' focus on FMC bundles
  • . 40. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 41. Our forecasts cover fixed broadband, pay-TV and mobile service bundles, with or without fixed voice
  • 42. Notes on key assumptions and methodology
  • 43. Factors influencing the growth of supply and/or demand for FMC bundles (often acting together)
  • . 44. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45. About the authors [1/2]
  • 46. About the authors [2/2]
  • 47. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 48. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures

  • Figure 1: Incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
  • Figure 2: Incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles by country
  • Figure 3a: Household penetration of FMC bundles and FMC SIMs as a share of total SIMs, selected countries in Europe, 2023
  • Figure 3b: Household penetration of FMC bundles and FMC SIMs as a share of total SIMs, selected countries in Asia--Pacific, 2023
  • Figure 4: FMC bundle penetration of fixed broadband connections, by country, 2018
  • Figure 5: MNO shares of fixed broadband and pay-TV markets, by country, selected European countries, 2017
  • Figure 6: FMC bundle penetration of fixed broadband connections, selected European countries, 2013--2023
  • Figure 7: Forecasted number of SIMs per FMC account, average household size and FMC SIMs' share of contract SIMs, by country, 2023
  • Figure 8: Pay-TV penetration of FMC bundles by country, 2013--2023
  • Figure 9: Examples of pay-TV strategies
  • Figure 10: Average revenue per FMC account (ARPA), by country, 2013--2023
  • Figure 11: Example of FMC brands in the highly converged Spanish market
  • Figure 12: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Belgium, 2013--2023
  • Figure 13: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, France, 2013--2023
  • Figure 14: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Germany, 2013--2023
  • Figure 15: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Italy, 2013--2023
  • Figure 16: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Netherlands, 2013--2023
  • Figure 17: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Portugal, 2013--2023
  • Figure 18: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Spain, 2013--2023
  • Figure 19: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, UK, 2013--2023
  • Figure 20: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Poland, 2013--2023
  • Figure 21: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Romania, 2013--2023
  • Figure 22: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Turkey, 2013--2023
  • Figure 23: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Australia, 2013--2023
  • Figure 24: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Malaysia, 2013--2023
  • Figure 25: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of fixed broadband subscriptions, Philippines, 2013--2023
  • Figure 26: Multi-play bundles covered in our analysis (may or may not include fixed voice)
  • Figure 27: Drivers and incentives for FMC supply and demand
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