Pay TV and OTT Video in Emerging Asia-Pacific: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

"Retail revenue for traditional pay-TV services will grow by USD2.9 billion in EMAP between 2019 and 2024, compared to USD15.1 billion retail revenue growth for OTT video."

Retail revenue from OTT services in emerging Asia-Pacific (EMAP) will grow more-rapidly than that from traditional pay-TV services in the next 5 years. This forecast report analyses how IPTV and OTT video compare as they compete for consumer spend in the region. It presents the scale of, and differences between, these dynamics in China, India and other countries in the region.

This report provides:

• forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, premium OTT video users, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)

• forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT; operator OTT and third-party OTT are split by category of OTT video service - linear channels, linear events, TVoD (rental), TVoD (ownership) and SVoD

• forecasts for seven individual countries and the EMAP region as a whole.

Geographical coverage and key metrics:

Table of Contents

• 6. Executive summary
• 7. The traditional pay-TV retail revenue in emerging Asia-Pacific will peak in 2023
• 8. Cable TV retail revenue will stop growing during the forecast period, the growth in satellite revenue will stall and IPTV will account for future revenue growth
• 9. Retail revenue from both traditional pay TV and OTT video will grow in almost all countries in EMAP, but OTT video will now account for the majority of growth
• 10. Regional trends
• 11. Geographical coverage: traditional pay-TV penetration varies significantly by country; the household penetration of premium operator OTT services is low
• 12. Traditional pay-TV take-up will saturate during the forecast period; operator OTT services will generate almost as much revenue as traditional pay TV by 2024
• 13. OTT video retail revenue will be dominated by SVoD because many linear services are being bundled free of charge, rather than paid for separately
• 14. Customers will migrate away from cable and satellite and towards IPTV; new revenue growth will come from IP services
• 15. SVoD will continue to be the most important type of OTT video service in the region during the forecast period, primarily due to China's scale
• 16. Country-level trends
• 17. China: China Mobile's IPTV licences have created a step change in the market: the future for IPTV is positive and cable TV will flounder
• 18. China: BAT have boosted the number of paying subscribers to their OTT video services; there will be 397 million OTT video users in 2024 as a result
• 19. India: the New Tariff Order creates a less favourable commercial market for pay-TV providers, so they are looking towards OTT for revenue growth
• 20. India: OTT video continues to be consumed primarily for free; the future of paid-for services depends on how operators approach bundling
• 21. Indonesia: the second-and third-largest players are likely to drive price competition, but the incumbent, Telkom, will grow its customer base
• 22. Indonesia: bundling OTT video services alongside telecoms services for freeis the norm
• 23. Malaysia: Astro still dominates the pay-TV and OTT market, and Telekom Malaysia's future role in TV is unclear
• 24. Malaysia: free bundling of OTT video services is commonplace
• 25. Forecast methodology and assumptions
• 26. Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
• 27. How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
• 28. Further definitions
• 29. About the authors and Analysys Mason
• 30. About the authors
• 31. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
• 32. Research from Analysys Mason
• 33. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue and ASPU, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2016--2024
• Figure 2: Pay-TV and OTT video retail revenue growth by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2019--2024
• Figure 3: Contribution of traditional pay TV and OTT video to the total change in retail revenue in emerging Asia--Pacific, 2019--2024
• Figure 4: Household penetration of pay TV and the population penetration of operator OTT services by country, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2024
• Figure 5: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2016--2024
• Figure 6: Pay-TV spend and CAGRs by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2019--2024
• Figure 7: Pay-TV connections and CAGRs by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2019--2024
• Figure 8: OTT video retail revenue by service type and blended ASPU, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2016--2024
• Figure 9: OTT video users and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2019--2024
• Figure 10: OTT video spend and growth rates by service type, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2019--2024
• Figure 11: Pay-TV connections, operator OTT users and ASPU by access technology, emerging Asia--Pacific, 2016--2024
• Figure 12: OTT video users by business model, EMAP, 2016--2024
• Figure 13: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, China, 2016--2024
• Figure 14: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, China, 2016--2024
• Figure 15: Number of users by service type, China, 2016--2024
• Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, India, 2016--2024
• Figure 17: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, India, 2016--2024
• Figure 18: Number of users by service type, India, 2016--2024
• Figure 19: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Indonesia, 2016--2024
• Figure 20: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Indonesia, 2016--2024
• Figure 21: Number of users by service type, Indonesia,2016--2024
• Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and OTT video users by access technology, Malaysia, 2016--2024
• Figure 23: Retail revenue by OTT video service type, and ASPU, Malaysia, 2016--2024
• Figure 24: Number of users by service type, Malaysia, 2016--2024
• Figure 25: Scope of our spend forecasts