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Market Research Report

FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2025

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 928148
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FTTx Conversion: Worldwide Trends and Forecasts 2019-2025
Published: March 11, 2020 Content info: 17 Slides
Description

"Cable broadband players are already under pressure in many European countries and the competitive threat posed by alternative technologies is set to grow."

There is still great potential to increase the number of NGA subscribers. We expect that the total number of FTTP subscribers worldwide will increase by 45% between the end of 2019 and the end of 2025, which particularly reflects robust growth in emerging markets.

This report analyses and forecasts conversion (premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed) for FTTx architecture and technologies during 2019-2025.

Key metrics covered in this report

  • Conversion rates (that is, premises with active connections as a percentage of premises passed)
  • Connection numbers
  • Connection rate of premises passed

Split by architecture/technology:

  • FTTC/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/VDSL or G.fast
  • FTTB/LAN
  • FTTP (split by incumbent and alternative operator)
  • Cable DOCSIS3.0 or 3.1

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

The report and accompanying data annex provide forecasts for 8 regions and 64 individual countries.

Region:Countries:
  Western Europe (WE)  Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece,
  Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain,Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
  Western Europe  AAustria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK.
  Central and Eastern Europe  Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Turkey, Ukraine.
  Middle East and North Africa  Israel, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
  Sub-Saharan Africa  Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa.
  Emerging Asia-Pacific  China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam.
  Developed Asia-Pacific  Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan.
  North America  Canada, USA.
  Latin America  Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay.
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide trends
  • 8. NGA conversion rates will only grow slightly during the forecast period, but NGA subscriber numbers will increase significantly
  • 9. Cable broadband players are facing increasing pressure from FTTP roll outs in many European countries
  • 10. Growth in the number of cable broadband subscribers will be constrained by FTTP roll outs
  • 11. Non incumbent FTTP take up rates in Western Europe are currently highly variable, but will start to converge during the forecast period
  • 12. Challenger infrastructure roll outs will affect FTTP conversion in VDSL dominated markets
  • 13. Most operators in developed markets still have very few gigabit subscribers and such speeds are not common in entry level FTTP tiers
  • 14. The migration to gigabit FTTP speeds will take many years in most countries if there are no retail price incentives or free speed upgrades
  • 15. There is still significant potential for growth in the number of NGA connections in emerging markets
  • 16. Western Europe
  • 17. NGA conversion rates will grow strongly in Western Europe during the forecast period
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 19. NGA conversion rates will grow steadily, but unspectacularly, in CEE during the forecast period
  • 20. Middle East and North Africa
  • 21. NGA conversion rates are growing in MENA, but they remain constrained by a diverse set of factors
  • 22. Sub Saharan Africa
  • 23. It is somewhat surprising that there have not been more extensive roll outs in Sub Saharan Africa given the high NGA conversion rate
  • 24. China
  • 25. There is now very little potential for growth in fibre conversion rates in China
  • 26. Rest of emerging Asia Pacific
  • 27. The overall NGA conversion rate in the rest of EMAP will be 44% at the end of 2025, which reflects the ongoing opportunities for growth in the fixed broadband segment
  • 28. Developed Asia Pacific
  • 29. The threat of wireless substitution is intensifying in a number of countries in DVAP
  • 30. North America
  • 31. We forecast that there will be a smaller decline in the number of NGA subscribers in North America than previously anticipated
  • 32. Latin America
  • 33. Incumbent copper decommissioning plans have caused NGA conversion rates to increase significantly
  • 34. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 35. Geographical scope: forecasts are provided for 64 countries in 8 regions
  • 36. Definitions
  • 37. About the author and Analysys Mason
  • 38. About the author
  • 39. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 40. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 41. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Conversion rates by technology, worldwide, 2014--2025
  • Figure 2: NGA conversion rates by region, 2014--2025
  • Figure 3: Year-on-year change in the number of cable broadband subscribers, Western Europe and North America, 2019
  • Figure 4: Total number of NGA subscribers and cable broadband subscribers, Western Europe, 2018--2025
  • Figure 5: Non-incumbent FTTP conversion rates, Western Europe, 2017--2025
  • Figure 6: FTTP coverage, conversion rate and share of fixed broadband connections, Canada, 2016--2019
  • Figure 7: Entry-level FTTP speeds from incumbents, Western Europe, January 2019
  • Figure 8: Maximum FTTP speeds from incumbents, Western Europe, January 2019
  • Figure 9: NGA subscribers as a percentage of total premises, emerging markets, 2018--2025
  • Figure 10: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Western Europe, 2017--2025
  • Figure 11: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Western Europe, 2017--2025
  • Figure 12: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017--2025
  • Figure 13: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Central and Eastern Europe, 2017--2025
  • Figure 14: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Middle East and North Africa, 2017--2025
  • Figure 15: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Middle East and North Africa, 2017--2025
  • Figure 16: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017--2025
  • Figure 17: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2017--2025
  • Figure 18: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, China, 2017--2025
  • Figure 19: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, China, 2017--2025
  • Figure 20: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, rest of emerging Asia--Pacific, 2017--2025
  • Figure 21: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, rest of emerging Asia--Pacific, 2017--2025
  • Figure 22: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, developed Asia-Pacific, 2017--2025
  • Figure 23: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, developed Asia--Pacific, 2017--2025
  • Figure 24: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, North America, 2017--2025
  • Figure 25: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, North America, 2017--2025
  • Figure 26: Conversion rates for NGA overall, and for FTTP and FTTx, Latin America, 2017--2025
  • Figure 27: Premises connected as a percentage of all premises, by technology, Latin America, 2017--2025
  • Figure 28: Countries covered in this report, by region
  • Figure 29: Definitions used in this report
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