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Market Research Report

Fixed-Mobile Convergence: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 929390
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Fixed-Mobile Convergence: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: March 24, 2020 Content info: 27 Slides
Description

"Pay TV was traditionally seen as the key to upselling customers to FMC packages, but there are signs that this is changing, and pay TV is no longer integral to an FMC offer."

Converged infrastructure, mobile competition and operator pricing strategies are some of the key factors that affect the growth in the adoption of fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) in Europe and Asia-Pacific. This forecast report examines the main trends and drivers and provides a 5-year outlook for FMC take-up in 11 countries in Europe and 4 countries in Asia-Pacific.

This following should read this report.

  • Integrated operators that have invested in FMC as part of their retail strategy and want to understand its growth potential.
  • Mobile-only or fixed-only players that want to understand what their addressable market for non-converged services will be by 2024.
  • Investors who observe, or have stakes in, the current and potential consolidation developments related to convergence in Europe.
  • Non-European operators that want to know more about the drivers of multi-play and FMC services, and wish to gain access to benchmarks.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

Western EuropeCentral and Eastern EuropeAsia-Pacific
  • Belgium
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy
  • Netherlands
  • Portugal
  • Spain
  • UK
  • Poland
  • Romania
  • Turkey
  • Australia
  • Malaysia
  • Philippines
  • Thailand


Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 6. Executive summary
  • 7. FMC remains a key market dynamic, and improving wholesale conditions will enable mobile operators to be ambitious about their FMC offers
  • 8. The take up rate of FMC bundles will vary; FMC household penetration will be the highest in Spain, France and Portugal
  • 9. FMC penetration will grow strongly in every market, largely due to improving broadband connectivity
  • 10. Implications
  • 11. Analysis
  • 12. European telecoms markets can be categorised into four separate groups
  • 13. FMC penetration will continue to increase in most countries in APAC, and operators have an opportunity to use it to drive revenue
  • 14. The markets in France, Portugal and Spain provide an indication of how FMC markets may evolve
  • 15. Mobile centric operators will benefit from the increased availability of competitive wholesale access for gigabit services and the arrival of 5G FWA
  • 16. The rise of third party OTT video, exclusivity issues and changing viewing behaviour mean that operators can launch FMC bundles that do not include pay TV
  • 17. The segment will adapt to a shifting landscape driven by intensifying competition from third party OTT video players
  • 18. FMC ARPA will decline in most markets during the forecast period
  • 19. Scorecard of incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
  • 20. Western Europe
  • 21. Belgium: the FMC market has historically lacked competition, but this is changing as Orange's proposition begins to gain momentum
  • 22. France: the FMC market is reaching saturation and operators are unlikely to aggressively pursue take up growth in this segment
  • 23. Germany: FMC penetration will continue to grow steadily, but it will remain lower than that in most other European countries
  • 24. Italy: FMC operators will target the high value end of market, and will offer premium services based on 5G and fibre based access networks
  • 25. Netherlands: the merger of T Mobile and Tele2 is boosting competition in the FMC segment
  • 26. Portugal: growth in the number of FMC accounts will be flat over the forecast period due to low competition
  • 27. Spain: ARPA will decline slightly due to increasing growth in the number of subscribers in the value segment
  • 28. UK: access to wholesale fibre is likely to encourage more ambitious FMC offers, and FMC penetration will grow strongly over the forecast period
  • 29. Central and Eastern Europe
  • 30. Poland: market fragmentation will limit the potential for fixed mobile convergence, although 5G might change this
  • 31. Romania: the entrance of a new FMC operator will probably intensify the price competition in the high value end of the market
  • 32. Turkey: a range of factors make the widespread adoption of FMC improbable
  • 33. Asia Pacific
  • 34. Australia: the number of FMC offers will grow after the merger of VHA and TPG has been completed
  • 35. Malaysia: only one operator currently offers a truly converged bundle
  • 36. Philippines: growing competition in the mobile market is expected to increase operators' focus on FMC bundles
  • 37. Thailand: strong competition in the fixed broadband segment is driving convergence across the market
  • 38. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 39. Several factors affect the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
  • 40. Our forecasts cover fixed broadband, pay TV and mobile service bundles, with or without fixed voice
  • 41. Notes on key assumptions and methodology
  • 42. Comprehensive definition of FMC bundling classifications
  • 43. Factors influencing the growth of supply and/or demand for FMC bundles (often acting
  • 44. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 45. About the authors [1/2]
  • 46. About the authors [2/2]
  • 47. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 48. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 49. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1a: Household penetration of FMC bundles and FMC SIMs as a share of total SIMs, selected countries in Europe, 2024
  • Figure 1b: Household penetration of FMC bundles and FMC SIMs as a share of total SIMs, selected countries in Asia-Pacific, 2024
  • Figure 2: FMC accounts as a percentage of fixed broadband connections, by country, Europe, 2019-2024
  • Figure 3: FMC accounts as a percentage of fixed broadband connections, by country, Asia-Pacific, 2019-2024
  • Figure 4: Potential evolution pathways for saturated FMC markets
  • Figure 5: Pros and cons of various pay-TV strategies
  • Figure 6: Percentage of FMC bundles with pay TV, by country, 2014-2024
  • Figure 7: Average revenue per FMC account (ARPA), by country, 2014-20241
  • Figure 8: Incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles, by country
  • Figure 9: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Belgium, 2014-2024
  • Figure 10: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, France, 2014-2024
  • Figure 11: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Germany, 2014-2024
  • Figure 12: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Italy, 2014-2024
  • Figure 13: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Netherlands, 2014-2024
  • Figure 14: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Portugal, 2014-2024
  • Figure 15: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Spain, 2014-2024
  • Figure 16: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, UK, 2014-2024
  • Figure 17: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Poland, 2014-2024
  • Figure 18: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Romania, 2014-2024
  • Figure 19: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Turkey, 2014-2024
  • Figure 20: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Australia, 2014-2024
  • Figure 21: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Malaysia, 2014-2024
  • Figure 22: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Philippines, 2014-2024
  • Figure 23: Number of FMC accounts and FMC bundles as a share of subscriptions, Thailand, 2014-2024
  • Figure 24: Incentives and drivers for the supply of, and demand for, FMC bundles
  • Figure 25: Multi-play bundles covered in our analysis (may or may not include fixed voice)
  • Figure 26: Drivers and incentives for FMC supply and demand
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