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Market Research Report

Pay-TV Services Worldwide: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024

Published by Analysys Mason Product code 944224
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Pay-TV Services Worldwide: Trends and Forecasts 2019-2024
Published: June 25, 2020 Content info: 29 Slides
Description

"We anticipate that IPTV will surpass cable in terms of the total number of connections worldwide by 2021, and that it will become the most-popular access technology."

IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay-TV connections worldwide; IPTV and operator OTT video will account for 48% of all pay-TV connections by 2024. This report provides an outlook for pay-TV and operator OTT video services over the next 5 years.

This report provides:

  • worldwide forecasts for the number of pay-TV households and services, their retail revenue (spend) and average spend per user (ASPU)
  • forecasts split by pay-TV platform: cable (analogue and digital), IPTV, pay DTT, satellite and operator OTT
  • forecasts for eight regions worldwide.

GEOGRAPHICAL COVERAGE:

     Regions modelled
  • Western Europe
  • Central and Eastern Europe
  • Middle East and North Africa
  • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Emerging Asia-Pacific
  • Developed Asia-Pacific
  • North America
  • Latin America
Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 7. Worldwide forecasts and regional comparison
  • 8. Worldwide: the COVID 19 pandemic will have a minor, short term effect on the traditional pay TV market, but may lead to more cord cutting in the medium term
  • 9. Worldwide: emerging Asia Pacific will have the highest IPTV share of traditional pay TV connections of all regions in 2024, largely due to China
  • 10. Worldwide: growth in operator OTT revenue will not offset the losses in traditional pay TV services revenue caused by ASPU erosion
  • 11. Worldwide: IP enablement will drive growth in the number of pay TV connections; IPTV and operator OTT services will account for 48% of pay TV connections by 2024
  • 12. Worldwide: traditional pay TV penetration will fall the fastest in North America, but cord cutting will also become more prevalent in other regions
  • 13. Regional trends
  • 14. Western Europe: operators will continue to move towards OTT video; operator OTT connections will exceed those from DTH by 2024
  • 15. Western Europe: the number of IPTV and operator OTT service subscriptions will increase, offsetting declines in the number of cable, DTH and pay DTT subscriptions
  • 16. Western Europe: growth in operator OTT service revenue varies significantly by country, depending on the strength of the competition from third party OTT players
  • 17. Central and Eastern Europe: retail revenue will grow robustly, despite the impact of low priced traditional pay TV services and widespread piracy
  • 18. Central and Eastern Europe: the number of IPTV connections will grow slightly, but operator OTT video services will account for most of the user base growth
  • 19. Central and Eastern Europe: penetration of operator OTT services will grow rapidly from a small base; Turkey will continue to distort the picture at the regional level
  • 20. Middle East and North Africa: significant ASPU erosion will be counterbalanced by growth in the number of operator OTT and traditional pay TV subscribers
  • 21. Middle East and North Africa: the number of satellite subscribers has grown despite piracy; the number of IPTV connections will grow the most during the forecast period
  • 22. Middle East and North Africa: the take up of traditional pay TV and operator OTT services will be stimulated by declining prices and reduced piracy
  • 23. Sub Saharan Africa: satellite will continue to account for the vast majority of traditional pay TV connections due to the limited footprint of wired infrastructure
  • 24. Sub Saharan Africa: expansions in wireless infrastructure coverage will drive a surge in the number of OTT video users, though only some will use operators' services
  • 25. Sub Saharan Africa: the three main traditional pay TV providers will continue to dominate the market during the forecast period
  • 26. Emerging Asia Pacific: retail revenue growth for traditional pay TV services will be dwarfed by the USD14.6 billion growth in OTT video retail revenue
  • 27. Emerging Asia Pacific: customers will migrate away from cable and satellite and towards IPTV; new pay TV users will primarily use IPTV
  • 28. Emerging Asia Pacific: the take up of traditional pay TV and operator OTT services will vary widely by country; ASPU will remain limited by abundant free services
  • 29. Developed Asia Pacific: operator OTT services will contribute to overall retail revenue growth for pay TV providers' services between 2019 and 2024
  • 30. Developed Asia Pacific: pay TV providers and operators will offset the decline in the number of cable and satellite subscriptions by gaining IPTV and OTT users
  • 31. Developed Asia Pacific: operator OTT services will continue to gain subscribers in most markets; South Korean users will favour traditional pay TV
  • 32. North America: the total revenue from pay TV services will decline by 21% between 2019 and 2024 due to a large fall in the number of subscribers
  • 33. North America: the number of traditional pay TV connections will fall by 18 million, only slightly mediated by growth in the number of operator OTT connections
  • 34. North America: the penetration of operator OTT services will grow considerably faster in Canada than in the USA
  • 35. Latin America: total pay TV revenue will decline by 22% between 2019 and 2024, mainly due to piracy and OTT migration
  • 36. Latin America: growth in the number of operator OTT and IPTV subscribers will not outweigh the strong decline in the number of satellite subscribers until 2023
  • 37. Latin America: pay TV players' retail revenue from OTT services will grow, but it will still only account for a small share of their total revenue
  • 38. Forecast methodology and assumptions
  • 39. Our spend forecasts focus on the direct flow of money between consumers and OTT video providers
  • 40. How we classify OTT video services in this forecast
  • 41. Further definitions
  • 42. About the authors and Analysys Mason
  • 43. About the authors [1/2]
  • 44. About the authors [2/2]
  • 45. Analysys Mason's consulting and research are uniquely positioned
  • 46. Research from Analysys Mason
  • 47. Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Annual growth in operator retail revenue from TV and video services, by COVID-19 scenario, worldwide, 2019--2020
  • Figure 2: IPTV share of traditional pay-TV connections and the number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, worldwide by region, 2024
  • Figure 3: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, worldwide, 2016--2024
  • Figure 4: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019--2024
  • Figure 5: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, worldwide, 2019--2024
  • Figure 6: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, worldwide, 2016--2024
  • Figure 7: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016--2024
  • Figure 8: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, by region, 2016--2024
  • Figure 9: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, WE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 10: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019--2024
  • Figure 11: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, WE, 2019--2024
  • Figure 12: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, WE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 13a: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 13b: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, WE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 14: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, CEE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 15: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019--2024
  • Figure 16: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, CEE, 2019--2024
  • Figure 17: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, CEE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 18a: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, CEE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 18b: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, CEE, 2016--2024
  • Figure 19: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, MENA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 20: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019--2024
  • Figure 21: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, MENA, 2019--2024
  • Figure 22: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, MENA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 23: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, MENA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 24: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, MENA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 25: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, SSA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 26: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019--2024
  • Figure 27: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, SSA, 2019--2024
  • Figure 28: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, SSA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 29: Household penetration of pay-TVand operator OTT services, by access technology, SSA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 30: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, EMAP, 2016--20242
  • Figure 31: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019--2024
  • Figure 32: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, EMAP, 2019--2024
  • Figure 33: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, EMAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 34: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, EMAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 35: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, EMAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 36: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, DVAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 37: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019--2024
  • Figure 38: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, DVAP, 2019--2024
  • Figure 39: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, DVAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 40: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, DVAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 41: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, DVAP, 2016--2024
  • Figure 42: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, NA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 43: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019--2024
  • Figure 44: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, NA, 2019--2024
  • Figure 45: Pay-TVconnections and ASPU by access technology, NA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 46: The number of traditional pay-TV connections as a percentage of the number of households, NA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 47: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, NA, 2016--2024
  • Figure 48: Traditional pay-TV and OTT retail revenue for operators and pay-TV providers, LATAM, 2016--2024
  • Figure 49: Pay-TV retail revenue and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019--2024
  • Figure 50: Pay-TV connections and CAGR by service type, LATAM, 2019--2024
  • Figure 51: Pay-TV connections and ASPU by access technology, LATAM, 2016--2024
  • Figure 52: The number of operator OTT users as a percentage of the number of households, LATAM, 2016--2024
  • Figure 53: Scope of our spend forecasts
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