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Market Research Report

Auto2x Perspectives in Electrification 2025

Published by Auto2x Ltd | Automotive Intelligence Consulting Product code 950476
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Auto2x Perspectives in Electrification 2025
Published: June 30, 2020 Content info: 50 Slides
Description

This report focuses on how leading carmakers are developing and executing their strategies to better position themselves in the new era of electrified mobility. It also provides insights on how their model range and sales' mix by powertrain will change between 2015 and 2025.

Aggressive electrification goals for emission compliance & next auto era

Besides Tesla and Toyota's who lead BEVs and HEVs respectively, most brands are still in the early stages of electrified-to brand's European sales. But European Premium carmakers prepare a product offensive over the next 7 years announcing aggressive targets for up to one-third of sales coming from EVs.

Lithium-Ion battery technology is improving year by year with increased energy density and falling costs by KWh of energy. Balance of choices allowing lower costs, higher range, reduced battery size.

This report focuses on Premium car manufacturers' electrified portfolio, strategies, and technology roadmaps to comply with regulation and democratize BEV, PHEV, HEV, FC & other AFVs by '25.

Dieselgate and high cost of electrified architecture drive European carmakers to mHEVs

While European carmakers boast about their plans to electrify their whole line-ups over the next decade, dedicated BEV architectures in most cases are coming by the end of this decade. In the meantime, amid pure diesel's future at risk - due to emission scandals (VW Group "Dieselgate"), city bans, and removal of tax incentives - they need pragmatic cost-efficient electrification solutions to meet efficiency goal until they develop a dedicated electric architecture.

Switching to 48 Volt electrical systems within a modified version of the existing ICE architecture (aka Mild-Hybrid), presents a cheaper and easily integrated alternative to a Full Hybrid and can delay the -eventually unavoidable- redesign of the architecture and tooling to accommodate a Hybrid or BEV variant.

Apart from efficiency, it allows carmakers to achieve enhanced performance without the need to switch to higher engine capacity. Finally, 48V systems can support the increasing powertrain content and augmented power requirements in modern cars.

The shift to 48V is evident in Mercedes-Benz's strategy, starting with its flagship S-Class from 2017, which is replacing its V6 engine with a new I6 family with 48V mHEV ISG (Integrated Starter operator). The brand has stated that a 48V set-up will in effect replace all of its non-plug-in hybrids. Also, Volvo will integrate Maxwell's ultracapacitor-based peak power subsystem into five mild-hybrid and plug-in hybrid Geely vehicle platforms for 2020.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

  • 1.1. Global Powertrain Outlook 2025 & new electrified market dynamics
  • 1.2. Summary of carmakers' electrification roadmaps & rankings
  • 1.3. The impact of drivers of electrification vs technology and market readiness
    • 1.3.1. AFV penetration in 2019 in Europe, USA, China and Japan
    • 1.3.2. Electrification in the era of COVID-19 & the next phase
    • 1.3.3. Sustainable powertrains as a business proposition

2. China New Energy Vehicles Forecasts

  • 2.1. China's new era: From import to China-made EVs
  • 2.2. NEV & Hybrid Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-2025 in China
  • 2.3. Market shares of leading brands in NEVs between 2019-25
    • 2.3.1. Battery Electric vehicles (BEV)
    • 2.3.2. Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
    • 2.3.3. Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEV)

3. European Outlook for Electrified vehicles

  • 3.1. The impact of COVID-19 on AFV sales in Europe: Q1'20
  • 3.2. The growth outlook for BEV, PHEV and FCV
  • 3.3. Market shares by brand between 2019 and forecast for 2025
    • 3.3.1. Battery Electric vehicles (BEV)
    • 3.3.2. Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
    • 3.3.3. Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEV)
    • 3.3.4. Hybrids (HEV)
    • 3.3.5. Other AFV: NGV and LPG

4. USA's Electrified market evolution up to 2025

  • 4.1. Powertrain mix evolution of AFV (EV & Hybrid) sales in USA 2015-2025
  • 4.2. USA AFV Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-25
  • 4.3. Carmaker market shares in electrified sales up to 2025: Leaders vs losers

5. Electrified roadmaps of 7 major carmakers

  • 5.1. Audi
    • 5.1.1. Electrification plans up to 2025: Europe, USA and China
    • 5.1.2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
  • 5.2. BMW
    • 5.2.1. Electrification plans up to 2025: Europe, USA and China
    • 5.2.2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
  • 5.3. BYD
    • 5.3.1. Electrification plans up to 2025: Europe, USA and China
    • 5.3.2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
  • 5.4. Mercedes-Benz
    • 5.4.1. Electrification plans up to 2025: Europe, USA and China
    • 5.4.2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
  • 5.5. Porsche
    • 5.5.1. Electrification plans up to 2025: Europe, USA and China
    • 5.5.2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
  • 5.6. Tesla: Electrification plans up to 2025 & Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025
  • 5.7. Volvo
    • 5.7.1. Electrification plans up to 2025: Europe, USA and China
    • 5.7.2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
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