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Market Research Report

Philippines Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Published by Fitch Solutions, Inc. Product code 203087
Published Content info 69 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Philippines Country Risk Report Q1 2020
Published: October 25, 2019 Content info: 69 Pages
Description

Key View:

We have revised down our economic growth forecast to 5.7% and 6.1% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, from 5.9% and 6.3% previously, owing to softer external demand and less fiscal stimulus.

We expect the Banko Sentral Ng Pilipinas to adopt a cautious approach over the coming months, keeping its key policy rate unchanged at 4.00% in 2019 and delivering a further 25bps rate cut in 2020 to 3.75%.

Key Risks:

A shift away from the West and Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU. The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising trade tensions. A deteoration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese investment into the Philippines.

Philippines' twin deficits leave it somewhat exposed to a sudden bout of risk-off sentiment, with inflation a risk were the peso to weaken significantly.

Table of Contents
Product Code: CFPH_20200101

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Philippines Q2 Growth Weakness Reinforces Slowdown View
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
  • Monetary Policy
  • Philippines To Pause Before Easing Again In 2020
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Fiscal Policy And Public Debt Outlook
  • Philippines With Scope For Further Fiscal Stimulus In 2020
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Currency Forecast
  • PHP: Risk Aversion To Drive Peso Movements
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Philippines Country Risk Q1 2020Contents10-Year Forecast
  • The Philippine Economy To 2028
  • Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Duterte To Maintain Warm Philippine-China Relations In The Near Term
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Prospects For Improving Governance
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
  • Economic Openness
    • TABLE: TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF TRADE BARRIERS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS
    • TABLE: FREE TRADE ZONES AND INVESTMENT INCENTIVES
    • TABLE: BARRIERS TO FDI
  • Utilities Network
    • TABLE: ELECTRICITY RISKS
    • TABLE: FUEL RISKS
    • TABLE: TELECOMMUNICATIONS RISKS
    • TABLE: WATER RISKS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Downside Revisions To Stabilise Somewhat, But Policy Risks Remain
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: PHILIPPINES - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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