Market Research Report
Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019
|Published by||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||Product code||203087|
|Published||Content info||57 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
|Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019|
|Published: August 5, 2019||Content info: 57 Pages||
We have revised down our economic growth forecast to 5.9% in 2019, from 6.1% previously, owing to softer external demand and less fiscal stimulus.
We expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to adopt a cautious approach over the coming months, cutting its key policy rate just twice in 2019 to 4.25%, and deliver a further 25bps rate cut in 2020.
A shift away from the West and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU.
The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising trade tensions. A deterioration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese investment into the Philippines. Philippines' twin deficits leave it somewhat exposed to a sudden bout of risk-off sentiment, with inflation a risk were the peso to weaken significantly.