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Market Research Report

Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Published by Fitch Solutions, Inc. Product code 203087
Published Content info 57 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Philippines Country Risk Report Q4 2019
Published: August 5, 2019 Content info: 57 Pages
Description

Key View:

We have revised down our economic growth forecast to 5.9% in 2019, from 6.1% previously, owing to softer external demand and less fiscal stimulus.

We expect the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to adopt a cautious approach over the coming months, cutting its key policy rate just twice in 2019 to 4.25%, and deliver a further 25bps rate cut in 2020.

Key Risks:

A shift away from the West and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's more populist rhetoric could upset existing trade relations with major economic partners like the US and the EU.

The Philippines is increasing economic linkages and exposure to China (and moving away from the West), at a time when the US and China are experiencing rising trade tensions. A deterioration in US-China trade relations could weigh on demand across the Asia region and weaken Chinese investment into the Philippines. Philippines' twin deficits leave it somewhat exposed to a sudden bout of risk-off sentiment, with inflation a risk were the peso to weaken significantly.

Table of Contents
Product Code: CFPH_20191001

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views and Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Philippine Stimulus To Only Partially Offset External Drags
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • External Trade And Investment Outlook
  • Philippines' External Position Robust In The Near Term
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT BALANCE
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORT AND EXPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN IMPORTS AND EXPORTS
  • Monetary Policy
  • Philippines To Ease Monetary Policy Further
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
  • Philippines Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsCurrency Forecast
  • PHP: Appreciatory Run To Lose Steam, But Rout Less Likely
    • TABLE: CURRENCY FORECAST
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Philippine Economy To 2028
  • Potential For Higher Investment Rate To Sustain Economic Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Political Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Duterte Given Strengthened Mandate, But Faces Four Key Challenges
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Prospects For Improving Governance
  • Operational Risk
    • TABLE: OPERATIONAL RISK SCORE
  • Labour Costs
    • TABLE: LABOUR REGULATIONS GOVERNING FLEXIBILITY OF WORKFORCE
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC PROCEDURES
  • Legal Environment
    • TABLE: BUREAUCRATIC BARRIERS
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Trade Tensions And Slowing Momentum Point To Weaker Growth Outlook, Higher Risks
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: PHILIPPINES - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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