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Market Research Report

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q4 2019

Published by Fitch Solutions, Inc. Product code 719411
Published Content info 39 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q4 2019
Published: September 27, 2019 Content info: 39 Pages
Description

Core Views:

We maintain our core view that economic activity will moderate gradually over the coming years due in large part to rising external headwinds. Emboldened by a strengthening relationship with China, we do not expect Prime Minister Hun Sen to make major concessions to Western calls for him to implement democratic reforms and tackle human rights abuses.

The threat of Western sanctions could accelerate a necessary rebalancing of the economy that could be positive in the long term, despite a potentially painful transition period.

Major Forecast Changes:

We have upgraded our forecasts for GDP growth in 2019 to 6.7%, from a previous 6.5%, given positive preliminary readings from H119. We have held our forecasts for 2020 and 2021 at 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively.

Key Risks:

The risk to economic growth will rise considerably from 2020 if the EU and the US decide to impose trade sanctions. Rapid growth in Chinese trade and investment is creating economic opportunities but could face rising social resistance if this fails to improve living standards for locals.

Fresh concerns over a Chinese military presence in Cambodia could stoke geopolitical tensions in the region.

Table of Contents
Product Code: CFKHLAMM_20191001

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Major Forecast Changes
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Trade Headwinds Weigh On Cambodia Growth Outlook
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS (2017)
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Cambodian Economy To 2028
  • Agriculture, Textiles And Tourism To Power Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • Cambodia Country Risk Q4 2019THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report is solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.ContentsPolitical Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Cambodia's Hun Sen To Deepen Ties With Beijing
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Rising Prosperity Will Be Key To Maintaining Political Stability
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Potential Policy Missteps Pose The Largest Risk To Global Growth
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2019-2024)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: CAMBODIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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