Market Research Report
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2020
|Published by||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||Product code||719411|
|Published||Content info||37 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
|Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2020|
|Published: December 13, 2019||Content info: 37 Pages||
We maintain our forecast for Cambodia's real GDP growth to slow to 6.7% in 2019 and 6.2% in 2020, from 7.5% in 2018. A strong likelihood of a removal of
Cambodia's Everything But Arms trade privileges with the EU in the latter half of 2020 will likely weigh on the manufacturing sector's growth prospects. That
said, growth is likely to be supported by strong construction activity and tourism arrivals.
We believe that the political concessions made by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will be insufficient in preventing the EU from temporarily removing
Cambodia's Everything But Arms (EBA) trade concessions. These concessions include the release of opposition leader Kem Sokha, a reversal of an earlier ban to
allow another opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, from entering Cambodia, and the release of opposition activists who were recently arrested. We believe that the
concessions will do little to change the political landscape and are thus maintaining our Short Term Political Risk Index score at 62.1 out of 100. A removal of
Cambodia's EBA preferences would have serious ramifications for Cambodia's economic growth over the longer term.
The risks to economic growth will rise considerably from 2020 if the EU indeed withdraws its EBA trade concessions for Cambodia.
Rapid growth in Chinese trade and investment is creating economic opportunities but could face rising social resistance if this fails to improve living standards
Fresh concerns over a Chinese military presence in Cambodia could stoke geo-political tensions in the region.
Cambodia Country Risk Q1 2020fitchsolutions.com