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Market Research Report

Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2020

Published by Fitch Solutions, Inc. Product code 719411
Published Content info 37 Pages
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Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q1 2020
Published: December 13, 2019 Content info: 37 Pages
Description

We maintain our forecast for Cambodia's real GDP growth to slow to 6.7% in 2019 and 6.2% in 2020, from 7.5% in 2018. A strong likelihood of a removal of

Cambodia's Everything But Arms trade privileges with the EU in the latter half of 2020 will likely weigh on the manufacturing sector's growth prospects. That

said, growth is likely to be supported by strong construction activity and tourism arrivals.

We believe that the political concessions made by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen will be insufficient in preventing the EU from temporarily removing

Cambodia's Everything But Arms (EBA) trade concessions. These concessions include the release of opposition leader Kem Sokha, a reversal of an earlier ban to

allow another opposition leader, Sam Rainsy, from entering Cambodia, and the release of opposition activists who were recently arrested. We believe that the

concessions will do little to change the political landscape and are thus maintaining our Short Term Political Risk Index score at 62.1 out of 100. A removal of

Cambodia's EBA preferences would have serious ramifications for Cambodia's economic growth over the longer term.

Key Risks

The risks to economic growth will rise considerably from 2020 if the EU indeed withdraws its EBA trade concessions for Cambodia.

Rapid growth in Chinese trade and investment is creating economic opportunities but could face rising social resistance if this fails to improve living standards

for locals.

Fresh concerns over a Chinese military presence in Cambodia could stoke geo-political tensions in the region.

Cambodia Country Risk Q1 2020fitchsolutions.com

Table of Contents
Product Code: CFKHLAMM_20200101

Table of Contents

Executive Summary

  • Core Views
  • Key Risks
  • Country Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Index
  • Political Risk Index
  • SWOT
  • Economic - SWOT Analysis
  • Political - SWOT Analysis
  • Economic Outlook
  • Economic Growth Outlook
  • Maintaining Outlook For Cambodia's Growth To Slow
  • GDP By Expenditure Outlook
    • TABLE: GDP GROWTH FORECASTS
    • TABLE: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION FORECASTS
    • TABLE: FIXED INVESTMENT FORECASTS
    • TABLE: NET EXPORTS FORECASTS
  • Outlook On External Position
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORT AND IMPORT PARTNERS
    • TABLE: MAIN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
    • TABLE: CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE FORECASTS
  • Monetary Policy Framework
    • TABLE: MONETARY POLICY FORECASTS
  • Structural Fiscal Position
    • TABLE: MAIN REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE CATEGORIES
    • TABLE: FISCAL AND PUBLIC DEBT FORECASTS
  • 10-Year Forecast
  • The Cambodian Economy To 2028
  • Agriculture, Textiles, And Tourism To Power Growth
    • TABLE: LONG-TERM MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS
  • THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS MACRO RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Rating. Any comments or data included in the report are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Macro Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings' analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Macro Research.Cambodia Country Risk Q1 2020ContentsPolitical Outlook
  • Domestic Politics
  • Cambodia's Preferential Trade Concessions With The EU Hanging By A Thread
    • TABLE: POLITICAL OVERVIEW
  • Long-Term Political Outlook
  • Rising Prosperity Will Be Key To Maintaining Political Stability
  • Global Macro Outlook
  • Lower Growth, Despite Some Trade Progress
    • TABLE: GLOBAL MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS (2018-2023)
    • TABLE: DEVELOPED MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
    • TABLE: EMERGING MARKETS - REAL GDP GROWTH, % y-o-y
  • Index Tables
    • TABLE: CAMBODIA - MACROECONOMIC DATA AND FORECASTS
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