Market Research Report
Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q4 2019
|Published by||Fitch Solutions, Inc.||Product code||719411|
|Published||Content info||39 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
|Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar Country Risk Report Q4 2019|
|Published: September 27, 2019||Content info: 39 Pages||
We maintain our core view that economic activity will moderate gradually over the coming years due in large part to rising external headwinds. Emboldened by a strengthening relationship with China, we do not expect Prime Minister Hun Sen to make major concessions to Western calls for him to implement democratic reforms and tackle human rights abuses.
The threat of Western sanctions could accelerate a necessary rebalancing of the economy that could be positive in the long term, despite a potentially painful transition period.
We have upgraded our forecasts for GDP growth in 2019 to 6.7%, from a previous 6.5%, given positive preliminary readings from H119. We have held our forecasts for 2020 and 2021 at 6.2% and 5.9%, respectively.
The risk to economic growth will rise considerably from 2020 if the EU and the US decide to impose trade sanctions. Rapid growth in Chinese trade and investment is creating economic opportunities but could face rising social resistance if this fails to improve living standards for locals.
Fresh concerns over a Chinese military presence in Cambodia could stoke geopolitical tensions in the region.