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Shire Company Analysis

Published by Datamonitor Healthcare Product code 573571
Published Content info 64 Pages
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Shire Company Analysis
Published: August 30, 2018 Content info: 64 Pages

PharmaVitae explores Shire's prescription pharmaceutical performance and outlook over 2017-27. PharmaVitae analyses include quarterly earnings coverage and provide timely updates to company product forecasts. The full company profile encompasses analysis on corporate strategy, portfolio analysis, pipeline potential, and financial performance.


  • Overview - Shire is set to maintain its slow growth rate as its acquired rare diseases portfolio faces fierce branded competition.
  • Key themes - [1] PharmaVitae expects Shire's prescription pharmaceutical sales to grow at a 1.0% CAGR between 2017-27 [2] Shire's CNS portfolio will increase to $3.6bn in 2022, but then fall sharply to $1.3bn in 2027 due to generic erosion of Vyvanse sales in the US [3] Shire's marketed rare diseases products will be extremely important to maintaining sales growth, adding over $2.3bn out to 2027 [4] The hematology portfolio will decline at a -1.5% CAGR between 2017-27 as Shire's leading hemophilia A products lose market share under fierce competition from Roche's recently launched Hemlibra [5] Shire's burgeoning ophthalmology portfolio, led by Xiidra, will add $1.6bn to its top line over the forecast period.
  • Q2 2018 - Shire's earnings edge higher after agreeing to sale to Takeda.
  • Out to 2022 - Shire's acquired rare diseases products and its CNS franchise will drive sales to a mid-term peak of $16.6bn in 2022. Out to 2027 - The company will add $1.6bn out to 2027 owing to growth in its rare diseases portfolio, and the launch of Xiidra.
  • Pipeline - Shire's pipeline is focused on rare diseases, with the highlight being Takhzyro, which is set to reach $1.9bn by 2027. Lifecycle - Shire's launch portfolio will offset its expiry portfolio as Takhzyro's launch is set to mitigate the 2023 patent expiry of Vyvanse.
  • Major events - Shire's hematology portfolio will be impacted by rival Hemlibra's ongoing clinical development success and launch, as Shire's management team accepts a $65bn takeover bid from Takeda.

Model updates

  • Revised HAE franchise sales downwards.
  • Revised hematology product sales downwards.
  • Revised immunology product sales upwards.
  • Lanadelumab name changed to Takhzyro.
  • Added Takhzyro launch.
  • Delayed Xiidra launch in Europe to Q1 2020. Analysis structure

Explore and visualize revenue dynamics in Shire's portfolio out to 2027 using 10-year in-house sales forecasts segmented by the following sections.

Quarterly review

  • What were the major highlights from Shire's latest earnings call and quarterly performance?

Strategy analysis

  • How is Shire strategically poised out to 2027?
  • What are Shire's key strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats?
  • What are Shire's key catalysts during the current year?

Portfolio analysis

  • Why will specific therapy areas experience the largest growth and decline?
  • What are the detailed competitive dynamics at play in Shire's important therapeutic markets?
  • How is Shire adapting strategically to internal and external headwinds in preceding quarters?

Facts and figures

  • What is Shire's forecasted sales performance out to 2027?
  • What is the revenue trajectory of Shire's current top 10 products out to 2027?
  • Which therapy areas will experience the largest growth and decline?
  • What are the portfolio weightings of Shire based on the lifecycle of its products?
Table of Contents
Product Code: DMKC0200078



  • Snapshot
  • Model updates
  • Analysis structure

Q2 2018 REVIEW

  • Shire's earnings edge higher after agreeing to sale to Takeda
  • Immunology sales drive
  • Hematology business remains solid for now
  • Neuroscience and internal medicine business
  • Oncology and ophthalmology progress
  • Bibliography

Q1 2018 REVIEW

  • Shire reports a solid start to 2018 amid talk of a takeover by Takeda
  • $65bn takeover by Takeda
  • Key Q1 2018 events
  • Bibliography

Q4 2017 REVIEW

  • Shire reports 8% product revenue growth in 2017
  • Immunology business
  • Cinryze revenues rebound as Shire mitigates HAE headwinds
  • AB Biosciences deal to boost immunoglobin R&D
  • SHP609 failure in Hunter syndrome
  • Neuroscience business
  • Hematology business
  • Internal medicines
  • Ophthalmology business
  • Key catalysts for 2018
  • Bibliography

Q3 2017 REVIEW

  • Cinryze supply issues hold Shire to flat revenues
  • Neuroscience business
  • Ophthalmology
  • Q3 2017 events
  • Bibliography


  • Acquisitions over 2015-16
  • 2018 will continue to focus on execution restructure
  • Big increase in net debt is not a large concern
  • Takeda takeover
  • Shire's SWOT analysis
  • Shire's key events and catalysts
  • Bibliography


Q2 2018


  • Shire's prescription pharma sales outlook
  • Shire's regional pharma sales outlook
  • Shire's therapy area dynamics
  • Shire's growth drivers and resistors
  • Shire's portfolio lifecycle analysis
  • Shire's pipeline analysis
  • Shire's M&A strategy and history
  • Bibliography


  • Figure 1: Shire's prescription pharmaceutical sales ($m) and growth rate (%), 2014-27
  • Figure 2: Shire's therapy area dynamics, 2017-27
  • Figure 3: Shire's launch/core/expiry portfolio configuration, 2017-27
  • Figure 4: Shire's pipeline overview


  • Table 1: Shire's historical net debt to EBITDA comparison
  • Table 2: Shire's sales by therapy area ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 3: Shire's prescription pharmaceutical sales by region ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 4: Shire's sales by therapy area ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 5: Shire's central nervous system portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 6: Shire's rare diseases portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 7: Shire's hematology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 8: Shire's ophthalmology portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 9: Shire's key products, 2017-27
  • Table 10: Shire's sales by launch, core, and expiry portfolio ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 11: Shire's launch portfolio sales, by product ($m), 2017-27
  • Table 12: Shire's key merger and acquisition deals, 2001-18
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