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Market Research Report

Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts

Published by Digital TV Research Product code 247486
Published Content info 210 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts
Published: April 13, 2016 Content info: 210 Pages
Description

The number of homes paying for IPTV in Western Europe overtook pay satellite TV ones in 2015. According the Digital TV Western Europe Forecasts report, IPTV subscriptions will climb by nearly 7 million (up by 27%) between 2015 and 2021. IPTV revenues will reach $5.77 billion in 2021 - up by $1.2 billion.

However, the number of homes paying for satellite TV will fall by 300,000 between 2015 and 2021 for the 18 countries covered in the report. This is due mainly to some operators, especially in Spain and Italy, converting their DTH subs to more lucrative bundles on their broadband networks. Satellite TV revenues will fall for every year from 2011 - and will decline by $1 billion between 2015 and 2021.

Western European pay TV is fast maturing, with penetration only forecast to grow from 56.8% at end-2015 to 59.5% in 2021. The number of pay TV subscribers will climb from 97.4 million in 2015 to 104.3 million in 2021.

So, pay TV subscriptions will only increase by 6.9 million (7.0%) between 2015 and 2021. However, the number of digital pay TV subs will increase by 19.0% (nearly 17 million) over the same period. Digital cable subs will increase by almost 10 million.

The 9.9 million analog cable homes remaining at end-2015 will be the hardest to convert to digital as many of these subscribers pay for very basic packages as part of their rent.

Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The remaining analog cable TV subs are the most obstinate. These homes have had several years to transfer to digital platforms - including those from their existing operators, but are still holding out. When conversion finally happens, these homes are more likely to convert to free-to-air platforms such as DTT or satellite than their predecessors.”

In fact, only seven (Finland, France, Iceland, Italy, Norway, Spain and the UK) of the 18 countries covered in the report had fully converted to digital by end-2015.

By 2021, pay TV penetration will range from nearly 100% in the Netherlands to 36% in Italy. Eight countries will exceed 90% pay TV penetration in 2021. However, pay TV penetration will fall in Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden and Switzerland - countries with a large number of legacy analog cable subs.

Despite the number of pay TV homes increasing, pay TV revenues will remain flat at around $31 billion. The UK ($7,217 million) will remain the most lucrative pay TV market. Regardless of having the most pay TV subs by some distance, Germany's pay TV revenues will remain a lot lower than the UK - at $4,183 million by 2021. In fact, France and Italy will not be too far behind Germany, despite having far fewer pay TV subs.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

Published in April 2016, this 210-page electronically-delivered report comes in two parts:

  • A 120-page PDF file providing punchy narrative and succinct analysis in the Executive Summary and a digital TV briefing for each of the 18 countries listed below.
  • An excel workbook providing detailed forecasts from 2010 to 2021 for the 18 countries listed below as well as handy comparative tables for the region.
AustriaBelgium
DenmarkFinland
FranceGermany
IcelandIreland
ItalyLuxembourg
MaltaNetherlands
NorwayPortugal
SpainSweden
SwitzerlandUnited Kingdom

Forecasts (2010-2021) contain the following detail for 18 countries:

Austria digital TV forecasts
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Households(000)
TV households(000)
Digital cable subs(000)
Analog cable subs(000)
Pay IPTV subscribers(000)
Pay digital satellite TV subs(000)
Digital free satellite TV homes (000)
Analog satellite TV households (000)
Analog terrestrial households (000)
Primary FTA DTT households (000)
Primary Pay DTT households (000)
Digital homes (000)
Analog homes (000)
Pay TV subscribers (000)
Total DTT homes (000)
 
Digital cable subs/TV HH
Analog cable subs/TV HH
Pay IPTV subs/TV HH
Pay satellite TV/TV HH
Digital free satellite TV/TV HH
Analog satellite TV/TV HH
Analog terrestrial/TVHH
Primary FTA DTT/TV HH
Primary pay DTT/TV HH
TVHH/HH
Digital/TV HH
Analog/TV HH
Pay TV Subs/TV HH
Total DTT/TVHH
 
Stand-alone digital cable subs (000)
Dual-play digital cable subs (000)
Triple-play digital cable subs (000)
Stand-alone pay IPTV subs (000)
Dual-play pay IPTV subs (000)
Triple-play pay IPTV subs (000)
 
Revenues (US$ million)
Stand-alone digital cable revs
Dual-play digital cable TV revenues
Triple-play digital cable TV revenues
Digital cable TV subs revenues
Digital cable TV on-demand revs
Digital cable TV revenues
Analog cable TV subs revs
Cable TV revenues
 
Stand-alone IPTV revenues
Dual-play IPTV revenues
Triple-play IPTV revenues
IPTV subscription revenues
IPTV on-demand revenues
IPTV revenues
 
Satellite TV subscription revenues
Satellite TV on-demand revenues
Satellite TV revenues
 
DTT subscription revs
DTT on-demand revenues
DTT revenues
 
Subscription revenues
On-demand revenues
Total revenues
 
Average Revenue Per User (ARPU - US$)
Stand-alone digital cable subs
Dual-play digital cable TV subs
Triple-play digital cable TV subs
Average digital cable (subs & VOD)
Analog cable TV subs
Stand-alone IPTV subs
Dual-play IPTV subs
Triple-play IPTV subs
Average IPTV (subs and VOD)
Pay satellite TV (subs)
Pay satellite TV (subs and PPV)
Pay DTT (subs)
Pay DTT (subs and PPV)
Average monthly ARPU
Source: digital TV research Ltd.
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