World LNG Market Forecast 2017-2021

LNG Investment Swings to North America - Global Capex to Total $284 billion

The LNG industry is undergoing a dramatic transformation. North American activity (the majority of which is committed spend) is driving a return to growth in global capital expenditure. A wave of new LNG carrier newbuilds will also be required to support a huge increase in traded base-load LNG volumes. Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecast global LNG expenditure to total $284 billion (bn) between 2017 and 2021. This represents a 50% growth compared with the preceding five-year period.

Liquefaction terminals will remain the principal driver of expenditure with spend in the segment totalling $192bn. This will subsequently lead to a 42% increase in liquefaction capacity by the end of the forecast period. Despite challenging times for shipyards, with only four LNG carriers ordered in 2016 (YTD) - unit orders are expected to bounce back in the near-term. Over 150 additional carriers yet to be ordered are likely to be required for additional export capacity coming onstream in the latter years of the forecast. Overall we expect expenditure on LNG carriers will represent 19% of global expenditure.

As the final set of Australian LNG projects start operating in 2017, global LNG expenditure will be concentrated in North America. This regional swing in investment will result in the United States (US) & Canada accounting for 17% of global liquefaction capacity by 2021 - with capex totalling $105bn, 36% of global expenditure over the forecast period. Of the six liquefaction terminals in the US, four of the facilities are currently under construction, with additional trains to be added before the end of the period. Beyond the forecast, some export terminals currently in the planning and approval stages will continue to support expenditure. We have, however, taken a conservative view on additional projects, given the current economic climate, and expect many of the early-stage projects not to progress past the initial planning/consent phase.

Over the long-term, LNG demand will continue to grow, as countries seek to diversify their energy supply. It is expected that delays in committing to new nuclear capacity and limitations of renewable technology in base-load applications will support continued newbuild of combined-cycle gas power plants. This, in addition to declining local production in some key consumer nations, will be a compelling driver for continued investment in these capital intensive projects.

The World LNG Market Forecast 2017-2021 examines trends in the LNG market by region and facility type, supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation. Areas of focus include:

• Drivers & indicators - a review of the factors influencing the LNG market, including growing global energy demand; environmental concerns and sustainable energy; oil & gas prices; majors' production profiles; E&P costs, local content and geopolitics; drilling & production; diversification of supply and unconventionals.

• Overview of the LNG industry - the LNG chain, major players, contracting practices, spot cargoes and current pricing.

• Supply & demand - outlook, trade flows, future pricing, applications, regional gas & LNG markets and unconventional gas: threat or a feedstock for LNG?

• Supply chain & contractors - EPC contractor market share analysis, construction, liquefaction technology market and regasification.

• Transportation - LNG carrier fleet and vessel owners, designs for containment systems & propulsion; plus a review of shipyards and shipbuilding.

• Offshore LNG - liquefaction and regasification terminals.

• Regional analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis and ten-year view of the market, with historic data covering the period 2012-2016 and forecast data for 2017-2021. Capital expenditure by facility type (carrier, import and liquefaction) and region. Liquefaction market in terms of Capex and/or capacity (new and cumulative) by region, new developments and expansion projects, components and work scopes. LNG carrier market in terms of expenditure and newbuild units by region. Import market in terms of Capex and/or capacity by region, new developments and expansion projects, components and work scopes.

Why purchase the World LNG Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is essential for design engineering houses, engineering, procurement and construction contractors, technology providers, shipping companies, LNG vessel owners, shipbuilders, oil & gas operators, gas utilities, financial institutions and government agencies & departments wanting to make more informed investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

• Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.

• Detailed methodology - the report uses research from DW's proprietary ‘World LNG Projects Database' , an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of the LNG market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast; with the timing of expenditure phased to reflect the commercial structures of likely projects.

• Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all of our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

• Summary
• Conclusions

2. Macro Drivers & Economic Overview

• Population, GDP & Energy Demand
• From Black to Green
• Sustainable Energy
• Natural Gas
• Oil & Gas Majors - Emerging Company Trends
• Oil & Gas Challenges
• Oil Price Volatility
• Drilling and Production Outlook
• Offshore Oil & Gas
• Diversification of Supply
• Unconventional Oil & Gas

3. The LNG Industry

• The LNG Chain
• LNG Contracting Practices
• Short-term Trade

4. LNG Supply and Demand

• Gas Demand & Supply
• Gas Supply: USA Projects in Progress
• Regional Gas and LNG Markets
• Gas Supply: Huge Conventional Resources Remain Untapped
• LNG Supply Outlook
• Unconventional Gas: Threat to LNG
• Unconventional Gas: A Feedstock for LNG
• LNG Demand Outlook
• Emerging Applications of LNG
• Future Outlook for LNG Prices

5. Supply Chain and Contractors

• The LNG Supply Chain
• EPC Contractor: Market Share Analysis
• LNG Construction
• LNG Liquefaction
• Liquefaction Technology Market
• LNG Regasification

6. LNG Transportation

• LNG Carriers
• LNG Vessel Owners & Analysis
• LNG Carrier Designs: Containment System
• LNG Carrier Designs: Containment & Propulsion
• Shipyard Analysis

7. Offshore LNG

• Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction
• Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction Terminals

8. Market Forecast

• Methodology
• The Global LNG Capex by Facility Type
• The Global LNG Market by Region
• Liquefaction Terminals
• Liquefaction Terminals - New Developments v Expansion Projects
• Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Total Liquefaction Capacity
• LNG Carriers
• LNG Import Terminals
• Import Terminals - New Developments vs. Expansion Projects
• Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Africa
• Asia
• Australasia
• Eastern Europe & FSU
• Latin America
• Middle East
• North America
• Western Europe

9. Appendix

• Prospects, Statuses & Conversion Tables
• Import Prospects
• Liquefaction Prospects
• Carrier Prospects
• Data and Text Conventions

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2012-2021
• Figure 2: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 3: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035
• Figure 4: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015
• Figure 5: The Changing Energy Mix 1965-2015
• Figure 6: Renewable Energy Capacity, 2000-2015
• Figure 7: Offshore Wind Capacity Additions Forecast, 2016-2025
• Figure 8: Primary Energy Consumption, 2015
• Figure 9: Levelised Cost of Energy ($/MWh) in 2022
• Figure 10: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
• Figure 12: Majors' Gas Production Index
• Figure 13: Majors' Oil Production Index
• Figure 11: Control of Oil & Gas Reserves, 2014
• Figure 14: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend, 2000-2016
• Figure 15: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, January 2010-June 2016
• Figure 16: Global Oil and Gas Production Forecast by Region, 2006-2022
• Figure 17: Global Oil and Gas Wells Drilled Forecast by Region, 2006-2022
• Figure 18: Onshore/Offshore Production Split 2015
• Figure 19: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2006-2022
• Figure 20: Global Deepwater Capex by Region, 2010-2020
• Figure 21: Sources of European Gas Supply
• Figure 22: Sources of Chinese Gas Supply
• Figure 23: Global Unconventional Oil & Gas Resources
• Figure 24: US Oil Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels Supply by Source
• Figure 25: Process Diagram of the LNG Chain
• Figure 26: Typical LNG Business Models
• Figure 27: Tolling Agreement Model
• Figure 28: Spot & Short-Term LNG Trade
• Figure 29: World LNG Estimated Prices
• Figure 30: Global Gas Production and Consumption
• Figure 31: Natural Gas Major Trade Movements 2015
• Figure 32: LNG Export Capacity by Country and by Region
• Figure 33: Natural gas production by type in China, Canada, and the USA, 2012 and 2040
• Figure 34: Shale gas production and total natural gas consumption in China, 2015-2021
• Figure 35: Australian CBM Production
• Figure 36: Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane production in the USA, 2010-2021
• Figure 37: LNG Available Supply, Actual Imports and Demand Forecast, 2000-2021
• Figure 38: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2021
• Figure 39: LNG Supply Chain
• Figure 40: Contractor Market Share (by project mmtpa) of Installed Liquefaction Facilities
• Figure 42: LNG Construction Process Flow
• Figure 41: EPC Cost for Liquefaction Terminals 2001-2021
• Figure 43: Propane Pre-Cooled Dual Mixed Refrigerant Process
• Figure 44: Market Share of Liquefaction Technology Installed in Respective Periods
• Figure 45: LNG Import Terminal Schematic
• Figure 46: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop)
• Figure 47: Development of the LNG Carrier Fleet
• Figure 48: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price, 2011-2016
• Figure 49: LNG Carrier Fleet by Class
• Figure 50: Vessel Owners & Fleet Statuses
• Figure 51: Number of Vessel Owners & Fleet Sizes
• Figure 52: Current Fleet by Containment System
• Figure 53: Membrane System Tank
• Figure 54: Typical Moss Layout
• Figure 55: SPB System
• Figure 56: Operational Fleet Propulsion System
• Figure 57: Orderbook (2017-2021) Propulsion System
• Figure 58: Shipyard Analysis
• Figure 59: LNG Carrier Orders by Shipyard and Country of Build 2000-2016
• Figure 60: Average Vessel Cost for 135,000-165,000m3 Capacity Carriers
• Figure 61: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Indicative Terminal Total Costs
• Figure 62: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities
• Figure 63: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 64: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2012-2021
• Figure 65: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region
• Figure 66: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2012-2021
• Figure 67: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2012-2021
• Figure 68: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Figure 69: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Installed and Forecast 2012-2021
• Figure 70: Expenditure on LNG Carriers in Asia and Western Europe 2012-2021
• Figure 71: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2012-2021
• Figure 72: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2012-2021
• Figure 73: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Figure 74: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 75: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 76: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 77: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 78: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 79: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 80: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by Type 2012-2021
• Figure 81: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2012-2021

List of Tables

• Table 1: Energy Demand Growth 2000-2015
• Table 2: Carrier Propulsion Systems
• Table 3: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2016-2021
• Table 4: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2016-2021
• Table 5: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2016-2021
• Table 6: LNG Liquefaction Capacity Coming Onstream 2016-2021
• Table 7: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2016-2021
• Table 8: Liquefaction Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2016-2021
• Table 9: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Table 10: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Forecast 2016-2021
• Table 11: Expenditure on LNG Carriers by Shipbuilder Region 2016-2021
• Table 12: No. of Newbuilds by Shipbuilder Region 2016-2021
• Table 13: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2016-2021
• Table 14: LNG Import Capacity Coming Onstream 2016-2021
• Table 15: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects
• Table 16: Import Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects
• Table 17: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Table 18: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2016-2021
• Table 19: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2016-2021
• Table 20: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2016-2021
• Table 21: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2016-2021
• Table 22: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2016-2021
• Table 23: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2016-2021
• Table 24: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by Type 2016-2021
• Table 25: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2016-2021
• Table 26: Conversion Tables
• Table 27: Import Prospects
• Table 28: Liquefaction Prospects
• Table 29: Carrier Prospects