World LNG Market Forecast 2018-2022

The World LNG Market Forecast 2018-2022 is presented using SECTORS, detailed analysis, and commentary on eight distinct regions with a ten-year market view - historic data covering the period 2013-2017 and forecast data for 2018-2022.

Global LNG Capex to total $236bn, as investors expect stronger LNG demand

Westwood expects global LNG capital expenditure (Capex) to total $236 billion (bn) over the 2018-2022 period, based on its latest analysis of sanctioned and upcoming projects. This represents a 14% growth compared to the preceding five-year period. In the near-term, expenditure is expected to be subdued due to the lack of project sanctioning seen during the oil price downturn. The LNG shipbuilding business is also expected to recover with over 150 further orders expected to be placed for delivery over the period to 2022.

Key Conclusions

• Over the forecast period, the construction of liquefaction terminals will account for 67% of the LNG market, with expenditure totalling $157.5bn. This investment will subsequently lead to an additional 119 mmpta of global export capacity over the 2018-2022 period.

• Despite several countries opting for floating regasification units, land-based import terminals remain attractive, with expenditure expected to grow at 8% CAGR over the 2018-2022 period, and forecast spend to total $25.9bn.

• Over the 2018-2022 period, 265 LNG carriers are expected to be delivered, as record numbers of carriers will be required to meet the increased LNG output expected by the end of the forecast period. Of the number of LNG carriers expected to be delivered, 154 units are yet to be ordered.

• Korean shipbuilders will continue to dominate the carrier market, with Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering, Samsung Heavy Industries and Hyundai Heavy Industries accounting for 60% of the current orderbook.

• Air Products' single mixed refrigerant and ConocoPhillips' Optimized Cascade process accounted for 54% and 46% respectively of the liquefaction technology market over the 2013-2017 period. Over the forecast period, Air Products currently has the largest market proportion (74%), with Conoco Philips (20%), Shell (4%) and Linde (2%) accounting for the remaining proportion of known contracts awarded.

• Operators sanctioning new projects are seeing lower supply chain costs, and despite current over-supply are expecting a growth in LNG demand that will see supply-demand balance by the mid-2020s.

• While long-term contracts are the foundation of the LNG contracting model that underpins returns on investment, changes in the business environment are driving an increase in spot trading and short-term contracts, leading to a rise in the number of spot cargoes.

The ‘World LNG Market Forecast 2018-2022’ is presented using SECTORS detailed analysis, and commentary on eight distinct regions with a ten-year market view - historic data covering the period 2013-2017 and forecast data for 2018-2022.

Whilst Westwood's SECTORS LNG Module provides project-by-project information and Capex details by service type, the report further provides detailed insight on:

• Macro-Economic Drivers and Market Trends
• LNG Pricing and Short-term Trade
• Supply Chain & Contractors
• LNG Demand - Supply Outlook
• LNG Transportation

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

• Summary
• Conclusions

2. Macroeconomic Overview

• The Changing Energy Mix
• Shifting Operator Focus
• Gas Price Trends
• Oil Prices & Investment
• Drilling & Production Outlook
• Diversification of Supply

3. The LNG Industry

• The LNG Chain
• Major Players
• LNG Contracting Practices
• Short-term Trade
• LNG Pricing

4. LNG Demand and Supply

• Gas Demand & Supply
• Gas Supply: USA Projects in Progress
• Regional Gas & LNG Markets
• LNG Supply Outlook
• Unconventional Gas: A Feedstock for LNG
• LNG Demand Outlook
• China as an Importer
• Emerging Applications of LNG
• Future Outlook for LNG Prices

5. Supply Chain and Contractors

• The LNG Supply Chain
• EPC Contractor: Market Share Analysis
• LNG Construction
• LNG Liquefaction
• Liquefaction Technology Market
• LNG Import & Regasification

6. LNG Transportation

• LNG Carriers
• LNG Vessel Owners & Analysis
• LNG Carrier Designs: Containment System
• LNG Carrier Designs: Propulsion System
• Shipyard Analysis
• Shipbuilding Review

7. Offshore LNG

• Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction
• Offshore Receiving & Liquefaction Terminals

8. Market Forecast

• Methodology
• Methodology
• The Global LNG Market by Facility Type
• The Global LNG Market by Region
• Liquefaction Terminals
• Liquefaction Terminals: New Developments vs Expansion
• Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Total Liquefaction Capacity
• LNG Carriers
• LNG Import Terminals
• Import Terminals: New Developments vs Expansions
• Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Africa
• Asia
• Australasia
• Eastern Europe & FSU
• Latin America
• Middle East
• North America
• Western Europe

9. Appendix

Figures

• Figure 1: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2013-2022
• Figure 2: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 3: Primary Energy Demand by Fuel, 1970-2040
• Figure 4: Change in Primary Energy Demand by Fuel, 2010-2040
• Figure 5: Gas Share of Net Hydrocarbon Production by Company, 2007 & 2017
• Figure 6: Natural Gas Demand by End-Use Sector, 1990-2040
• Figure 7: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price Forecast, 2010-2022
• Figure 8: Upstream Capex vs Total Wells Drilled (Development and E&A), 2013-2022
• Figure 9: Brent Annual Average Spot Price Forecast, 2010-2022
• Figure 10: Global Oil and Gas Production by Region, 2008-2024
• Figure 11: Global Oil and Gas Development Wells Drilled by Region, 2008-2024
• Figure 12: Global Gas Trading Volumes, 2016-2040
• Figure 13: Gas Supply to Europe, 2010-2040
• Figure 14: Process Diagram of the LNG Chain
• Figure 15: Typical LNG Business Models
• Figure 16: Tolling Agreement Model
• Figure 17: Spot and Short-Term LNG Trade
• Figure 18: World LNG Estimated Prices
• Figure 19: Global Gas Production and Consumption
• Figure 20: Natural Gas Major Trade Movements 2016
• Figure 21: LNG Export Capacity by Country and by Region
• Figure 22: Australian CBM production
• Figure 23: Tight gas, shale gas and coalbed methane production, LNG net imports, and LNG
• export capacity in the USA, 2010-2022
• Figure 24: Chinese LNG Monthly Historical Imports
• Figure 25: Key Chinese Import Projects
• Figure 26: LNG Available Supply, Actual Imports and Demand Forecast, 2000-2021
• Figure 27: Natural Gas Prices ($/mmBtu), 2000-2022
• Figure 28: LNG Supply Chain
• Figure 29: Contractor Market Share of Installed Liquefaction Facilities
• Figure 30: Average EPC Cost for Liquefaction Terminals 2002-2022
• Figure 31: Propane Pre-Cooled Dual Mixed Refrigerant Process
• Figure 32: Market Share of Liquefaction Technology Installed in Respective Periods
• Figure 33: LNG Import Terminal Schematic
• Figure 34: Submerged Combustion Vapouriser (Closed Loop)
• Figure 35: Development of the LNG Carrier Fleet
• Figure 36: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price, 2011-2017
• Figure 37: LNG Carrier Fleet by Class
• Figure 38: Vessel Owners & Fleet Specifications
• Figure 39: Current Fleet by Containment System
• Figure 40: Membrane System Tank
• Figure 41: Typical Moss Layout
• Figure 42: SPB System
• Figure 43: Operational Fleet Propulsion System
• Figure 44: Orderbook (2018-2022) Propulsion System
• Figure 45: LNG Carrier Orders by Shipyard and Country of Build 2000-2018
• Figure 46: Average Vessel Cost & Order Intensity by Vessel Size
• Figure 47: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex ($/t/y)
• Figure 48: Floating LNG Projects
• Figure 49: Global LNG Capex by Status 2013-2022
• Figure 50: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 51: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2013-2022
• Figure 52: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region
• Figure 53: Global Capex on Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2013-2022
• Figure 54: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2013-2022
• Figure 55: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation 2013-2022
• Figure 56: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Installed and Forecast 2012-2021
• Figure 57: Expenditure on LNG Carriers in Asia and Western Europe 2013-2022
• Figure 58: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2013-2022
• Figure 59: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2013-2022
• Figure 60: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Figure 61: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 62: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 63: Capex on LNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 64: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 65: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 66: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 67: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by Type 2013-2022
• Figure 68: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2013-2022

Tables

• Table 1: Reported Full Year Average Daily Production by Company, 2007 & 2017
• Table 2: Carrier Propulsion Systems
• Table 3: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Type 2017-2022
• Table 4: Global Capex on LNG Facilities by Region 2017-2022
• Table 5: Capex on LNG Liquefaction Terminals by Region 2017-2022
• Table 6: LNG Liquefaction Capacity Coming Onstream 2017-2022
• Table 7: Liquefaction Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2017-2022
• Table 8: Liquefaction Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2017-2022
• Table 9: Liquefaction Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Table 10: Cumulative Liquefaction Capacity Forecast 2017-2022
• Table 11: Expenditure on LNG Carriers by Shipbuilder Region 2017-2022
• Table 12: Number of Newbuilds by Shipbuilder Region 2017-2022
• Table 13: Capex on LNG Import Terminals by Region 2017-2022
• Table 14: LNG Import Capacity Coming Onstream 2017-2022
• Table 15: Import Capex - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2017-2022
• Table 16: Import Capacity - New Developments and Expansion Projects 2017-2022
• Table 17: Import Terminals Cost Segmentation
• Table 18: Capex on LNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2017-2022
• Table 19: Capex on LNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2017-2022
• Table 20: Capex on LNG Facilities in Austalasia by Type 2017-2022
• Table 21: Capex on LNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2017-2022
• Table 22: Capex on LNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2017-2022
• Table 23: Capex on LNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2017-2022
• Table 24: Capex on LNG Facilities in North America by Type 2017-2022
• Table 25: Capex on LNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2017-2022