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Market Research Report

World Floating Production Systems Tracker 2017-2021

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 217636
Published Content info 87 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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World Floating Production Systems Tracker 2017-2021
Published: January 20, 2017 Content info: 87 Pages
Description

FPS Market Improvement to Continue as Forecast Expenditure and Orders Increase

The ‘World Floating Production Systems Tracker Q2 2017’ (previously the World Floating Production Systems Market Forecast) is now available. The report is a concise 20 page update document presenting Douglas-Westwood's (DW) latest view on the market. Capex for both installations and orders has increased from the Q1 edition, reaching $54bn and $42bn respectively, driven by increased confidence that the bottom has been reached.

Update Coverage:

  • Installation Capex forecast by region and type
  • Unit Installation forecast by region and type
  • Order Capex Forecast
  • Oil Price Sensitivity Analysis
  • Comparison between reports - highlighting major news stories of the quarter
  • Summary of new and expected 2017 orders and units onstream

Key Conclusions

  • A significant number of units remain in-build, the vast majority of which were ordered prior to the downturn. These will be installed in the coming years, with associated Capex remaining high whilst the backlog is worked through.
  • Analysis of the order book shows 36 units in-build at present - a decline from the previous edition. This is due to the lack of project sanctioning in 2015 and 2016.
  • This is already changing and expected order value over the forecast have increased 14% from Q1 as confidence returns to the sector.
  • Installation expenditure over the forecast has increased 7% to $54bn. This is a result of additional installations expected over the forecast.
  • Latin America will remain dominant in the sector with 31% of both Capex and installations. The majority of expenditure will be for Petrobras fields in water depths >1,000m.
  • Installation expenditure will be diverse with Africa, Asia, North America and Western Europe all forecast to have installed spend over $5bn.
  • 2017 will see the highest installation expenditure (43% of forecast) driven by units ordered before the downturn.

Over the last quarter DW has witnessed an increased enthusiasm for field development activity as operators seek to capitalise on lower supplier prices and replace reserves. Significant project revisions have brought the cost of many FPS developments down substantially and projects previously considered uncommercial such as Rosebank and Bonga South-West are now progressing towards sanctioning. This demonstrates a renewed confidence in the use of FPS units in both deepwater development (where they remain essential) and in shallow water where they are seen as a viable alternative to fixed developments.

Analysis is based on DW's SECTORS database which details more than 700 FPS projects that are updated and tracked daily. The ‘World Floating Production Systems Tracker Q2 2017’ is essential for anyone evaluating investment opportunities in the FPS sector, including growing firms seeking competitive advantage across segments, investment banks and advisory firms wanting to improve their understanding of the business and industry analysts seeking a competitive edge.

Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-45-9

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Economic Overview

  • Evolution of Offshore E&P Industry
  • Oil Price Impacts
  • Oil Demand: Near-Term Outlook
  • Oil Supply & Demand Balance
  • Oil Supply : Near-Term Outlook
  • Gas Demand and Supply: Near-Term Outlook
  • Consensus Oil & Gas Prices: Near-Term Outlook
  • Development Reactivity
  • The Changing Energy Mix: Long-Term Outlook
  • E&P Trends - Spending Activity
  • Deepwater Focus: New Frontiers
  • Brazilian Activity

3. FPS Types and Applications

  • Field Development
  • The FPS Lifecycle
  • FPS Concept Selection
  • Floating Production, Storage and Offloading Vessels (FPSOs)
  • Types of FPSO
  • Floating Production Semi-Submersibles (FPSS)
  • Types of FPSS
  • Spars
  • Types of Spars
  • Tension Leg Platforms (TLPs)
  • Types of TLP
  • Types of Floating Production Systems - Summary
  • FPS Applications

4. FPS Components

  • Hulls
  • Topsides
  • Mooring Systems
  • Critical Path Equipment Lead Times
  • Riser Systems

5. Transportation, Installation & Commissioning

  • Transportation, Installation & Commissioning
  • Spar Installation

6. Leasing and Financing

  • Financing
  • FPS Leasing
  • Major Leasing Contractors
  • Redeployments of Leased Units

7. The FPS Supply Chain

  • The FPS Supply Chain
  • Contractor Overview
  • FPS Shipyards & Construction Facilities
  • Orders
  • Local Content - FPS Construction

8. FPS Fleet

  • The FPS Fleet
  • Fleet Analysis: Operator & Water Depth Distributions

9. Market Forecast

  • Market Forecast
  • The Global FPS Market by Region
  • The Phased Capex Global FPS Market by Region
  • The Global FPS Market by Vessel Type
  • FPSOs
  • FPSO Capex Breakdown
  • FPSSs
  • FPSS Capex Breakdown
  • Spars
  • TLPs
  • TLP Capex Breakdown
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Operator Analysis
  • The Deepwater FPS Market

10. Appendix

  • Floating Production Prospects
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Phased FPS Capex by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 2: Onshore vs. Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2006-2021
  • Figure 3: Global - Deepwater Production wells by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 4: Average Share Performance Index (January 2014=1) January 2014-December 2016
  • Figure 5: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production Tree Orders, Q1 2009-Q3 2016
  • Figure 6: Caption
  • Figure 7: Supply-Demand Balance 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Caption
  • Figure 9: Gas Production Growth, 2015-2018, December 2016
  • Figure 10: Consensus Oil Price Forecast 2010-2021
  • Figure 11: Henry Hub Gas Price Consensus, 2010-2021
  • Figure 12: Indicative Reactivity to Oil Price Recovery by Development Type
  • Figure 13: Energy Consumption Mix and Total (mmboe/d) 2015, 2025 & 2035
  • Figure 14: Brazillian Offshore Basins
  • Figure 15: The FPS Lifecycle
  • Figure 16: Completion Strategy and FPS Concept Selection
  • Figure 17: Typical Layout of an FPSO
  • Figure 19: Typical Layout of an FPSS (Deep Draft)
  • Figure 18: Typical Pontoon Arrangements
  • Figure 20: Typical Layout of a Spar (Truss)
  • Figure 21: Typical Layout of a TLP (Dry-tree)
  • Figure 22: Typical Layout of Topside Modules
  • Figure 23: Spar Installation
  • Figure 24: Typical Lending Cycles in the Offshore Sector
  • Figure 25: Major Leasing Contractors (2017)
  • Figure 26: Leased Units on contract by region (2017)
  • Figure 27: Major Leasing Contractors' Vessels Available for Redeployment (2017-2021)
  • Figure 28: The FPS Supply Chain
  • Figure 29: Major Shipbuilding Countries
  • Figure 30: Number of FPS Units On Order by Type Jan 2012-Jan 2017
  • Figure 31: Value of FPS Units On Order by Type April 2012-April 2016
  • Figure 32: Global FPS Fleet
  • Figure 33: Operator Distribution of FPS Fleet
  • Figure 34: Water Depth Distribution of FPS Fleet by Region
  • Figure 35: Global FPS Installation Capex by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 36: Global Phased FPS Capex by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 37: Global FPS Installation Capex by Vessel Type 2012-2021
  • Figure 38: FPSO Capex by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 39: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2012-2021
  • Figure 40: FPSS Capex by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 41: FPSS Capex by Component Type 2012-2021
  • Figure 42: Spar Capex by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 43: TLP Capex by Region 2012-2021
  • Figure 44: TLP Capex by Component Type 2012-2021
  • Figure 45: FPS Capex - Africa 2012-2021
  • Figure 46: FPS Capex - Asia 2012-2021
  • Figure 47: FPS Capex - Australasia 2012-2021
  • Figure 48: FPS Capex - Latin America 2012-2021
  • Figure 49: FPS Capex - Middke East 2012-2021
  • Figure 50: FPS Capex - North America 2012-2021
  • Figure 51: FPS Capex - Western Europe 2012-2021
  • Figure 52: Leading FPS Operators Capex 2012-2021
  • Figure 53: Leading FPS Operators 2016-2020 by Region
  • Figure 54: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2012-2021
  • Figure 55: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2012-2021

Tables

  • Table 1: International E&P Expenditure
  • Table 2: E&P Expenditure (Consolidated)
  • Table 3: Typical Mooring System Designs by FPS Type
  • Table 4: Major Leasing Contractors & Their Units
  • Table 5: FPS Competitive Landscape (list not exhaustive)
  • Table 6: Number of FPS Units On Order by Type April 2012-April 2016
  • Table 7: Value of FPS Units On Order by Type April 2012-April 2016
  • Table 8: Global FPS Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 9: Global FPS Installations by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 10: Global Phased FPS Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 11: Global Phased FPS Installations by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 12: Global FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2016-2021
  • Table 13: Global FPS Installations by Vessel Type 2016-2021
  • Table 14: FPSO Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 15: FPSO Installations by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 16: FPSO Capex by Component Type 2016-2021
  • Table 17: FPSS Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 18: FPSS Installations by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 19: FPSS Capex by Component Type 2016-2021
  • Table 20: Spar Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 21: Spar Installations by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 22: TLP Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 23: TLP Installations by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 24: TLP Capex by Component Type 2016-2021
  • Table 25: FPS Capex - Africa 2016-2021
  • Table 26: FPS Installations - Africa 2016-2021
  • Table 27: FPS Capex - Asia 2016-2021
  • Table 28: FPS Installations - Asia 2016-2021
  • Table 29: FPS Capex - Australasia 2016-2021
  • Table 30: FPS Installations - Australasia 2016-2021
  • Table 31: FPS Capex - Latin America 2016-2021
  • Table 32: FPS Installations - Latin America 2016-2021
  • Table 33: FPS Capex - Middle East 2016-2021
  • Table 34: FPS Installations - Middle East 2016-2021
  • Table 35: FPS Capex - North America 2016-2021
  • Table 36: FPS Installations - North America 2016-2021
  • Table 37: FPS Capex - Western Europe 2016-2021
  • Table 38: FPS Installations - Western Europe 2016-2021
  • Table 39: Leading FPS Operators 2016-2021
  • Table 40: Deepwater FPS Capex by Vessel Type 2016-2021
  • Table 41: Deepwater FPS Capex by Region 2016-2021
  • Table 42: Floating Production Prospects 2017-2021
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