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Market Research Report

World FLNG Market Forecast 2019-2024

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 221351
Published Content info 56 Pages
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World FLNG Market Forecast 2019-2024
Published: July 19, 2018 Content info: 56 Pages
Comment
Our market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.
Description

A Second Wave - $53 billion of FLNG Investment Expected as Market Bursts Back to Life

Based on Westwood's latest analysis of sanctioned and upcoming projects, global FLNG capital expenditure (Capex) is projected to total $52.8 billion (bn) over the 2019-2024 period.

As LNG exports take a foothold in the US, investment in floating liquefaction facilities in North America will play a pivotal role in global FLNG expenditure over the forecast, accounting for 45% of expenditure. A combination of drivers, including perceived technological maturity, an improved macroeconomic outlook, and cost reduction in the supply chain, will support an increase in project sanctioning over the next 24 months.

Following a 22-month hiatus in project sanctioning, the FLNG industry is moving into a ‘second wave' of developments, with the market opening up to a greater number of participants. The size and technical complexity/risk of early pioneer developments allowed only the largest NOCs and IOCs to move forward with projects on a balance-sheet financing basis. As more FLNG units become operational, we are seeing project structures and financing more akin to the well-established FPSO sector. This includes a move to syndicated project financing (e.g. as arranged for ENI's Coral South Unit) and Construction Financing / Sale and Leaseback structures (such as Golar's Hilli Episeyo unit.)

Increased gas demand driven by economic growth and fuel switching combined with ongoing concerns over energy security underpins the import vessels market. The key driver for the use of floating units remains the short lead-time from sanction to operation and consequently, tendering activity for FSRUs is expected to remain strong over the 2019-2024 period.

Key Conclusions:

  • Over the 2019-2024 period, liquefaction vessels will account for 80% forecast expenditure, totalling $42bn. This investment will subsequently lead to the installation 15 FLNG vessels and an addition of 47.9 mmtpa to global export capacity by the end of the forecast period.
  • With the challenging market conditions seen over 2015-2017 starting to ease, forecast FLNG expenditure is expected to grow at a 14% CAGR, as operators seek to take advantage of the current competitive pricing structure within the oilfield services and equipment sectors.
  • Forecast liquefaction spend in Africa will total $15.4bn over 2019-2024, with 34% of this spend already committed.
  • Gas-to-power projects will account for a significant proportion of import vessel demand in Africa and Asia.
  • Strong global fundamentals for regasification vessels have prompted some leasing contractors to sign letters of intent (LOI) for optional units to be delivered in the latter years of the forecast.
  • A total of 18 countries are expected to have their first floating import vessels installed over the forecast period.

‘The World FLNG Market Forecast 2019-2024’ is presented using Westwood's SECTORS data with detailed analysis and commentary on eight distinct regions with a twelve-year market view - historic data covering the period 2013-2018 and forecast data for 2019-2024.

Westwood's SECTORS online data platform identifies project-by-project information, development timeline, and Capex details for both liquefaction and regasification vessels by service type. The report further provides detailed insight on:

  • Market drivers and trends.
  • FLNG supply chain and contractors.
  • FLNG Import and Export expenditure by component and service type.
  • Regional expenditure analysis.
  • Detailed project appendix for the 2019-2024 period.
Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-73-2

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Why Floating LNG

  • Floating Liquefaction - Market Drivers
  • Onshore & FLNG Comparison & Definitions
  • Floating Liquefaction - Onshore Cost Comparison
  • The History of Floating LNG
  • Floating Regasification - Market Drivers

3. Floating Liquefaction

  • Hulls
  • LNG FPSO
  • Containment Systems
  • LNG FPSO Components
  • Liquefaction Plant Process Flow
  • Liquefaction Technology
  • Offloading

4. Floating Regasification

  • FSRU & Regasification Vessels
  • Topsides & Regasification Process
  • Destination LNG Offloading

5. FLNG Supply Chain

  • Liquefaction Pre-FEED/FEED Supply Chain
  • Liquefaction EPC Supply Chain
  • Floating Regasification Supply Chain
  • Financing
  • LNG Business Model
  • Shipyard Review
  • Leasing Contractors - Floating Liquefaction
  • Leasing Contractors - Floating Regasification

6. FLNG Projects

  • Oil Price Impact on FLNG Projects
  • Floating Regasification Projects
  • Floating Liquefaction Projects
  • Pioneer FLNG Projects

7. Market Forecast

  • Methodology
  • Liquefaction Vessels Capex - by Region
  • Liquefaction Vessels Capex - by Component & Services
  • Import Vessels Capex - by Region
  • Import Vessels Capex - by Component & Services
  • The Global FLNG Market by Facility Type
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australia
  • Eastern Europe & FSU
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe

8. Appendix

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2013-2024
  • Figure 2: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Region 2013-2024
  • Figure 3: Top 10 countries with Proven Natural Gas Reserves (as at end 2017)
  • Figure 4: Process Diagram of the LNG chain
  • Figure 5: Indicative Capex by Service for a Floating Liquefaction Project ($/t/y)
  • Figure 6: Onshore vs. Offshore Liquefaction Terminal Capex ($/t/y)
  • Figure 7: Indicative Capex by Component for an Onshore Liquefaction Project ($/t/y)
  • Figure 8: History of Floating LNG
  • Figure 9: Overview of Operational and Future LNG Facilities
  • Figure 10: LNG Import by Region 1990-2040
  • Figure 11: LNG FPSO Layout
  • Figure 12: Sloshing Inside a Tank
  • Figure 13: LNG FPSO Processing Scheme
  • Figure 14: Single Train Capacity for Several Liquefaction Process
  • Figure 15: FSRU Topside Process Block Diagram
  • Figure 16: Schematic of the Sea Water Vaporiser (Open-loop)
  • Figure 17: Submerged Combustion Vaporiser (Closed Loop)
  • Figure 18: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain
  • Figure 19: LNG FPSO Pre-FEED & FEED Supply Chain
  • Figure 20: Floating LNG Regasification Supply Chain
  • Figure 21: Typical Finance Project Structure
  • Figure 22: LNG FPSO Simplified Business Model
  • Figure 23: Natural Gas Prices ($/million btu) and Brent Spot Prices ($/bbl), 2007-2017
  • Figure 24: Focus areas for FLNG export project development
  • Figure 25: Shell Prelude FLNG
  • Figure 26: Petronas PFLNG-Satu
  • Figure 27: Hilli Episeyo
  • Figure 28: Columbia FLSRU
  • Figure 29: Components of an FLNG vessel
  • Figure 30: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2013-2024
  • Figure 31: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2013-2024
  • Figure 32: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2013-2024
  • Figure 33: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2013-2024
  • Figure 34: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2013-2024
  • Figure 35: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2013-2024
  • Figure 36: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 37: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 38: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 39: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 40: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 41: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 42: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 43: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2018-2024
  • Figure 44: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2018-2024

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Conventional FPSO Components
  • Table 2: Typical Natural Gas Composition
  • Table 3: Floating Liquefaction Lease Contractors and Operators
  • Table 4: Floating Liquefaction Projects
  • Table 5: Prelude, PFLNG and FLSRU Vessel Details
  • Table 6: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Region 2018-2024
  • Table 7: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Component 2018-2024
  • Table 8: Capex on FLNG Liquefaction Vessels by Service 2018-2024
  • Table 9: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Region 2018-2024
  • Table 10: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Component 2018-2024
  • Table 11: Capex on FLNG Import Vessels by Service 2018-2024
  • Table 12: Global Capex on FLNG Facilities by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 13: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Africa by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 14: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Asia by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 15: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Australasia by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 16: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Eastern Europe & FSU by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 17: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Latin America by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 18: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Middle East by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 19: Capex on FLNG Facilities in North America by Type 2018-2024
  • Table 20: Capex on FLNG Facilities in Western Europe by Type 2018-2024
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