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Market Research Report

World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2018-2027

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 223474
Published Content info 37 Pages
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World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2018-2027
Published: February 28, 2018 Content info: 37 Pages
Description

Offshore Wind Forecast to Account for Over A Quarter of Overall Offshore Capex by 2022

Based on a thorough review of latest project data, Westwood forecasts over 15,300 turbines to be installed over the 2018-2027 period with a total global cumulative capacity to reach just under 113 GW by 2027, inclusive of projects at the concept and speculative stages of development.

Overall spend associated with offshore wind development over this period is expected to total €464bn. To put this in context, with the current growth expectations offshore wind will account for 27% of total offshore capex (oil & gas and wind combined) by 2022. This compares to just 4% in 2013.

This growth will provide opportunities across the marine equipment and engineering sectors. Recent years have seen the diversification of a number of oil & gas companies into the offshore wind sector providing a variety of services including heavy-lift, cable manufacture and installation/burial, fixed platform structures and also site survey and geotechnical data analysis involved in the early stages of project development.

Key projects expected to contribute to expenditure in the near-term include the 1,386 MW Hornsea Project Two and 860 MW Triton Knoll (Phase 1) developments offshore the UK, and the 497 MW Hohe See (Hochsee) and 448 MW Borkum Riffgrund 2 developments offshore Germany, as EU countries look to meet their 2020 renewables obligations. China is also expected to see a significant increase in offshore wind capacity as it seeks to diversify its energy mix and reduce C02 emissions. Projects expected to contribute to expenditure in the near-term include the 300 MW Laoting Bodhi Island and SPIC Jiangsu Dafeng H3 developments.

Global capital expenditure forecast to reach a period peak of €57bn in 2025, driven predominantly by additional capacity in the UK, China, Germany, Netherlands, the USA and key projects such as the 2.4 GW Dogger Bank and Hornsea Project Three developments offshore the UK, and the 900 MW He Dreiht development offshore Germany.

Some Key Conclusions:

  • Total Capex over the 2018-2027 period is expected to amount to almost €464bn.
  • Global cumulative capacity is expected to rise at a CAGR of 20% over 2018-2027 from 22 GW to over 112 GW*.
  • Global operational expenditure over the 2018-2027 period is expected to amount to over €80bn*.
  • The UK, China, and Germany will continue to dominate the offshore wind market over the next decade, accounting for 61% of capacity additions from projects past the concept stage of development over 2018-2027.
  • Westwood estimates that almost 37 GW of additional capacity over 2018-2027 is likely to come from projects currently at the concept and speculative stages of development.

* Figures are inclusive of projects yet to develop past conceptual phases.

Since the Q4 2017 edition of the report, Taiwan now features in the report as a separate market, previous part of the Rest of the World segment of the market. Key projects expected to contribute to capital expenditure in Taiwan over the 2018-2027 period include φrsted's development in the Greater Changhua region, comprised of four projects with a planned capacity of at least 2 GW. When including concept and speculative projects, Westwood expects that cumulative capacity in Taiwan is likely to reach just under 5.7 GW by 2027. The Dutch government held a zero-subsidy tender for its 700 MW Hollandse Kust Zuid 1 & 2 acreage in December 2017, and is currently in the process of selecting a winning bid, with the development currently expected to be fully commissioned in 2022.

Westwood's report features an in-depth Capex analysis, including a component breakdown and country-specific commentary, reflecting on announced renewables obligations. Tracking the industry on a project by project basis, Westwood offers a comprehensive view on the significant opportunities for the wind supply chain over the next decade. Given the increased focus on renewables, the industry will continue to attract investment from utilities and large engineering and service contractors, as well as upstream oil and gas companies.

Report Contents:

  • Key Drivers and Indicators
  • Global to Country Capex and Opex Market Forecasts
  • Segment Market Forecasts
  • Project Listings
Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-51-0

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary & Conclusions
  • Data Summary

2. Drivers & Indicators

  • Overview
  • Project Scale
  • Project Costs

3. Methodology

  • Methodology

4. Country Market Forecast

  • Cumulative Capacity by Country
  • Capital Expenditure by Country
  • Operational Expenditure by Country
  • China Offshore Wind Outlook
  • Denmark Offshore Wind Outlook
  • France Offshore Wind Outlook
  • Germany Offshore Wind Outlook
  • Netherlands Offshore Wind Outlook
  • Poland Offshore Wind Outlook
  • South Korea Offshore Wind Outlook
  • Sweden Offshore Wind Outlook
  • Taiwan Offshore Wind Outlook
  • UK Offshore Wind Outlook
  • USA Offshore Wind Outlook
  • RoW Offshore Wind Outlook

5. Segment Market Analysis

  • Turbines by Country
  • Foundations
  • Cables
  • Offshore Substations

6. Appendix

  • Project Listings

Figures & Tables

  • Figure 1: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 2: Global Offshore Wind Capex Comparison, 2017-2027
  • Figure 3: Global Offshore Wind Added Capacity Comparison, 2017-2027
  • Figure 4: Global Offshore Wind Capex by Component, 2018-2027
  • Figure 5: Drivers for Offshore Wind
  • Figure 6: Average Project Capacity, Distance from Shore and Water Depth
  • Figure 7: Westwood Forecast Added Capacity by Status Group, 2017-2027
  • Figure 8: Example Country Cumulative Capacity with Extrapolation, 2020-2030
  • Figure 9: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 10: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 11: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 12: China Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 13: China Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 14: Denmark Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 15: Denmark Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 16: France Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 17: France Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 18: Germany Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 19: Germany Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 20: Netherlands Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 21: Netherlands Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 22: Poland Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 23: Poland Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 24: South Korea Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 25: South Korea Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 26: Sweden Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 27: Sweden Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 28: Taiwan Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 29: Taiwan Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 30: UK Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 31: UK Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 32: USA Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 33: USA Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 34: RoW Capex (Includes Expected Projects) by Service Line, 2017-2027
  • Figure 35: Rest of World Cumulative Capacity by Current Project Status, 2017-2027
  • Figure 36: RoW Added Capacity (MW) 2018-2027
  • Figure 37: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 38: Foundations Installed by Type, 2017-2027
  • Figure 39: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 40: Cable Length Installed by Type, 2017-2027
  • Figure 41: Substations Installed by Country, 2017-2027
  • Figure 42: Substations Installed by Type, 2017-2027
  • Table 1: Offshore Wind Project Status Methodology
  • Table 2: Capex Category Definitions
  • Table 3: Cumulative Capacity by Country, 2017-2027
  • Table 4: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2017-2027
  • Table 5: Operational Expenditure by Country, 2017-2027
  • Table 6: China Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 7: Denmark Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 8: France Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 9: Germany Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 10: Netherlands Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 11: Poland Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 12: South Korea Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 13: Sweden Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 14: Taiwan Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 15: UK Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 16: USA Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 17: Rest of World Added Capacity by Lead Operator, 2017-2027
  • Table 18: Wind Turbines Installed by Country, 2017-2027
  • Table 19: Foundations Installed by Type, 2017-2027
  • Table 20: Cable Length Installed by Country, 2017-2027
  • Table 21: Substations Installed by Country, 2017-2027
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