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Market Research Report

World Deepwater Market Forecast 2017-2021

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 228276
Published Content info 69 Pages
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World Deepwater Market Forecast 2017-2021
Published: January 30, 2017 Content info: 69 Pages
Description

Douglas-Westwood forecasts global deepwater expenditure to total $120 billion (bn) over the 2017-2021 period. Spend is expected to decline at a -6% CAGR. DW's 15th edition of the World Deepwater Market Forecast covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain in the deepwater sector.

Non-Traditional Deepwater Basins to Support Forecast Expenditure, with 2017-2021 Deepwater Spend to Total $120 Billion

Douglas-Westwood (DW) forecasts global deepwater expenditure to total $120 billion (bn) over the 2017-2021 period. Spend is expected to decline at a -6% CAGR. However, if forecast floating production system (FPS) spend is isolated, expenditure is estimated to increase by 3% compared to the 2012-2016 period.

Despite rig day rates hitting record lows in recent years, drilling and completion expenditure is expected to total $41.6bn, accounting for 35% of Capex. Subsea production equipment, SURF (subsea umbilicals, risers, and flowlines) and pipelines will represent a combined 38% of total expenditure, whilst floating production units will account for 27% of spend over the forecast period.

Sustained low oil prices will hinder forecast expenditure, with no deepwater FPS units having been ordered between July 2015 and December 2016. This highlights several operators' decisions to consider alternative development options, with the motive of reducing development costs.

In the near-term, Capex will be driven by traditional deepwater countries in Africa and the Americas. However, offshore installation activities on the Liza field (Guyana), SNE (Senegal), and the commencement of activities offshore East Africa, as well as the development of the Zohr field in Egypt, will support expenditure during the latter years of the forecast period. Renewed interest in developing deepwater reserves is also expected in the South China Sea and East India, which will significantly contribute to spending towards the end of the forecast period.

OEMs are beginning to feel the full impact of the downturn due to the low volume of projects sanctioned since 2014 as they are rapidly working through their record backlogs established over the 2011-2014 period. However, a number of mega projects waiting final investment decision (FID) are expected to be up for tender over the next 18 months, as operators hope to take advantage of a more competitive pricing environment. Subsequently, subsea tree installation activity is estimated to grow at a 4% CAGR over the forecast period. DW has identified over 118 deepwater fields in its World Deepwater Market Forecast with potential drilling activity, which demonstrates that many oil majors have and will continue to invest in deepwater operations to replenish dwindling production profiles.

DW's 15th edition of the World Deepwater Market Forecast covers all key commercial themes relevant to players across the value chain in the deepwater sector:

  • Key drivers - discussion of factors affecting deepwater activity, including sustained low oil & gas prices, declining production from onshore and shallow water basins, E&P spend of international operators, and development of new frontiers.
  • Supply chain - detailing the financing of deepwater developments and local content issues. Includes analysis of contracting strategies (e.g. frame agreements), the deepwater drilling rig fleet and day rates, key players and capabilities of each sector within the deepwater market (drilling, FPS, and subsea hardware).
  • Procurement - factors affecting the decisions of FPS operators, including whether to lease or own vessels, and details of major leasing contractors.
  • Regional forecasts - forecast Capex within each region, including examples of notable projects and operators within the region and countries with the most activity.
  • Component forecasts - drilling and completion (subsea and surface completed wells), subsea production hardware, SURF, pipelines, trunklines, and floating production.
  • List of deepwater prospects - includes information on all identified prospects with drilling activities from 2017 to 2021 by operator, location, water depth, number of trees, status category, and onstream year.

Why purchase the World Deepwater Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies, and top-10 private equity firms.

An essential report for equipment manufacturers, offshore vessel operators, steel mills, pipeline operators, oilfield service companies, government agencies, financial institutions and oil & gas companies who need quality, up-to-date information and commercial insight to assist with their strategy in the upstream oil & gas sector.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - the report uses research from DW's ‘SECTORS' database, the subscription-based information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of the deepwater market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast.
  • Comprehensive analysis - comprehensive examination, analysis, and 10-year coverage of deepwater unit/km and expenditure segmented by region and component.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with ‘speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-46-6

Table of Contents

1. Summary and Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Drivers and Indicators

  • E&P Trends - Spending Activity
  • Viability of Oil & Gas Developments
  • Development of Offshore Reserves
  • Offshore Oil & Gas
  • Oil Demand: Near-Term Outlook
  • Oil Supply : Near-Term Outlook
  • Oil Supply & Demand Balance
  • Gas Demand and Supply: Near-Term Outlook
  • Consensus Oil & Gas Prices: Near-Term Outlook
  • Oil Price Impacts
  • Oil & Gas Challenges
  • Deepwater Focus: New Frontiers
  • Importance of Brazil to the Subsea Market
  • Deepwater Focus Areas

3. Field Development

  • Field Lifecycle
  • Drilling and Completion
  • Field Development Concept Selection
  • Subsea Production Hardware
  • SURF and Trunklines
  • Floating Production Systems (FPS)
  • Vessels

4. The Supply Chain

  • Financing
  • Deepwater Supply Chain - Drilling and FPS
  • Deepwater Supply Chain - Subsea Hardware
  • Deepwater Drilling Fleet
  • Rig Dayrate Analysis
  • Subsea Tree Market Trends
  • FPS Leasing
  • Supply Issues - Local Content

5. The Deepwater Market Forecast

  • Introduction
  • Forecasting and Potential Upside
  • Assumptions
  • Methodology
  • The World Deepwater Market - By Region
  • The World Deepwater Market - By Component
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Eastern Europe & CIS
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Drilling and Completion: Subsea Completed Wells
  • Drilling and Completion: Surface Completed Wells
  • Subsea Production Hardware
  • SURF
  • Pipelines
  • Floating Production Systems by Region
  • Floating Production Systems by Type

6. Appendix

  • Deepwater Prospects
  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Deepwater Capex by Component 2012-2021
  • Figure 2: Deepwater golden triangle and the new deep blue W
  • Figure 3: Breakeven Prices* and Onstream Years of Key Deepwater Projects ($/bbl)
  • Figure 4: Global Oil Supply mix Shallow/Deep Split 2002-2022
  • Figure 5: Onshore vs Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2006-2022
  • Figure 6: Global Subsea Hardware Capex by Component 2012-2021
  • Figure 7: Oil Demand Growth CAGR Comparison 2014-2020
  • Figure 8: Regional Year-on-Year Production Increase by Year (2015-2018), Q1 2017
  • Figure 9: Supply-Demand Balance 2014-2020
  • Figure 10: Gas Production Growth, 2015-2018, Q1 2017
  • Figure 11: Consensus Oil Price Forecast 2010-2021
  • Figure 12: Henry Hub Gas Price Consensus, 2010-2021
  • Figure 13: Average Share Performance Index (January 2014=1) January1'4-December ‘16
  • Figure 14: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production Tree Orders, Q1 2009-Q3 2016
  • Figure 15: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend, 2000-2016
  • Figure 16: Brazillian Offshore Basins
  • Figure 17: Subsea Focus Areas
  • Figure 18: Typical Lending Cycles in the Offshore Sector
  • Figure 19: Drilling and FPS Supply Chain
  • Figure 20: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
  • Figure 21: Rig Managers of Existing Deepwater Rigs
  • Figure 22: Rig Managers of Deepwater Rigs Under Construction
  • Figure 23: Deepwater Rigs Currently On Order by Shipyard
  • Figure 24: Dayrates of Semi-submersibles, Drillship and Jackup Drilling Rigs
  • Figure 25: Average Dayrates of Deepwater Drilling Rigs
  • Figure 26: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production Tree Order Value Q1 2009-Q3 2016
  • Figure 27: Market Share of Subsea Tree Suppliers by Order Value 2016: Q1-3 2016
  • Figure 28: Leasing Contractors of Existing and Under Construction Deepwater Vessels
  • Figure 29: Deepwater Trees Installed by Category
  • Figure 30: Global - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-2021
  • Figure 31: Global - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 32: Africa - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 33: Asia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 34: Australasia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 35: Eastern Europe & CIS - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 36: Latin America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 37: Middle East - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 38: North America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 39: Western Europe - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2012-2021
  • Figure 40: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-21
  • Figure 41: Subsea Drilling - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 42: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-21
  • Figure 43: Surface Drilling - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 44: Subsea Production Hardware - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-2021
  • Figure 45: Subsea Production Hardware - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 46: SURF - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-2021
  • Figure 47: SURF - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 48: Pipelines - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-2021
  • Figure 49: Pipelines - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 50: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2012-2021
  • Figure 51: Floating Production Systems - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 52: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Type, 2012-2021
  • Figure 53: Floating Production Systems - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Tables
  • Table 1: International E&P Expenditure
  • Table 2: E&P Expenditure (Consolidated)
  • Table 3: Selected Majors' Oil Production 2005-2015
  • Table 4: Completion Strategy and Deepwater Field Development Concept Selection
  • Table 5: Global - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 6: Global - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 7: Africa - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 8: Asia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 9: Australasia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 10: Eastern Europe & CIS - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 11: Latin America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 12: Middle East - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 13: North America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 14: Western Europe - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2016-2021
  • Table 15: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 16: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Units by Component Type, 2016-2021
  • Table 17: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 18: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Units by Component Type, 2016-2021
  • Table 19: Subsea Production Hardware - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 20: Subsea Production Hardware - Units by Component Type, 2016-2021
  • Table 21: SURF - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 22: SURF - Km by Component Type, 2016-2021
  • Table 23: Pipelines - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 24: Pipelines - Km by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 25: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 26: Floating Production Systems - Units by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 27: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Type, 2016-2021
  • Table 28: Floating Production Systems - Units by Type, 2016-2021
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