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Market Research Report

World Deepwater Market Forecast 2018-2022

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 228276
Published Content info 59 Pages
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World Deepwater Market Forecast 2018-2022
Published: February 9, 2018 Content info: 59 Pages
Description

Lower Costs Bring Renewed Deepwater Sanctioning

In the latest edition of World Deepwater Market Forecast Q1 report, Westwood expects global deepwater expenditure over 2018-2022 to total $136.8bn - a 4% decline compared to the 2013-2017 period.

In 2017 we have seen an upturn in orders that is expected to extend into 2018, improving the outlook for installation spend throughout the remainder of the forecast period. This upturn has been driven by a combination of lower supply-chain costs and an improvement in the oil price. In addition to price pressure through the supply chain from operators, many projects have also been re-engineered, and in some cases re-tendered. Expectations for supply chain pricing over the forecast period are relatively flat as a function of persistent over-supply in the rig and vessel markets.

World Deepwater Capex by Component 2013-2022

Key Conclusions:

  • Over the forecast period, Africa and the Americas will continue to lead the deepwater market, accounting for 79% of forecast expenditure.
  • FPSOs will continue to dominate the FPS market, with a total of 33 deepwater units (out of 41 FPS units in total) expected to be installed over the 2018-2022 period, representing 78% of FPS expenditure.
  • Despite decline of only 6% in the number of wells drilled, total drilling and completion expenditure over the next five years will decline by 26% compared to the 2013-2017 period, due supressed rig day rates.
  • Westwood anticipates line pipe expenditure to account for 10% of global deepwater expenditure over 2018-2022, driven by large export gas pipelines. However, this market remains susceptible to geopolitical tensions.
  • The spike in expenditure over the 2017-2018 period is driven by a number of fast track projects, the installation of some large pipelines, as well as the delivery of delayed FPS units such as Total's Kaombo and Petrobras' P-74, P-75, and P-76 FPS units.
  • Overall, Westwood expects to see a more stable market expenditure profile post-2020, with an increase in FEED and tendering activities. However, a competitive pricing structure is expected to remain in the near-term, which will limit Capex growth.

The World Deepwater Market Forecast 2018-2022 is presented using Westwood's proprietary database, which analyses 107 deepwater projects expected to drive expenditure over the forecast period.

This market forecast is based on a thorough scrutiny of the data, which enables the forecasts to be built on a project-by-project basis, enabling Westwood to consider various market conditions which further complements the detailed evaluation of market activity and anticipated market development.

Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-61-9

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Drivers & Indicators

  • E&P Trends - Spending Activity
  • Viability of Oil & Gas Developments
  • Evolution of Offshore E&P Industry
  • Subsea Focus Area
  • Key Recent Events
  • Oil Demand: Near-Term Outlook
  • Oil Supply & Demand Balance
  • Oil Supply: Near-term Outlook
  • Gas Demand & Supply: Near-term Outlook
  • Consensus Oil & Gas Prices: Near-Term Outlook
  • The Changing Energy Mix: Long-Term Outlook
  • Importance of Brazil to the Subsea Market
  • Deepwater Focus: Emerging-Maturing Frontiers

3. Definitions & Terminology

  • Offshore Field Lifecycle
  • Drilling and Completion
  • Field Development Concept Selection
  • Subsea Xmas Trees & TMFJ Hardware
  • SURF and Pipelines
  • Floating Production Systems (FPS)
  • Vessels

4. Deepwater & Subsea Hardware

  • Supply Chain & Contractors
  • Deepwater Drilling & FPS Supply Chain
  • Deepwater Supply Chain - Subsea Hardware
  • Deepwater Rig Fleet
  • Rig Day Rate Analysis
  • FPS Leasing
  • Subsea Tree Market Trends
  • Supply Issues - Local Content

5. Deepwater Market Forecast

  • Methodology: WGEG Forecasting Process
  • Methodology: Expenditure Forecasts
  • Methodology: Assumptions
  • Model Summary & Assumptions
  • The World Deepwater Market - By Region
  • The World Deepwater Market - By Component
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Australasia
  • Eastern Europe & CIS
  • Latin America
  • Middle East
  • North America
  • Western Europe
  • Drilling and Completion: Subsea Completed Wells
  • Drilling and Completion: Surface Completed Wells
  • Subsea Xmas Trees & TMFJ
  • SURF
  • Line Pipe
  • Floating Production Systems by Region

6. Appendix

Figures & Tables

  • Figure 1: Global Deepwater Capex by Component 2013-2022
  • Figure 2: Estimated Breakeven Prices* of Key Deepwater Projects ($/bbl) by Year
  • Figure 3: Onshore vs. Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2006-2022
  • Figure 4: Global Subsea Hardware Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 5: Subsea Focus Areas
  • Figure 6: Global Oil Demand and Population 1980-2023
  • Figure 7: Oil Supply-Demand Balance 2015-2022
  • Figure 8: Regional Year-on-Year Production Increase by Year (2017-2020)
  • Figure 9: Gas Production Growth, 2015-2019
  • Figure 10: Consensus Oil Price Forecast 2010-2022
  • Figure 11: Henry Hub Gas Price Consensus, 2010-2022
  • Figure 12: Energy Consumption Mix and Total (mmboe/d) 2015, 2025 & 2035
  • Figure 13: Top-down view of a typical subsea production arrangement
  • Figure 14: Deepwater Supply Chain
  • Figure 15: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
  • Figure 16: Managers of Existing Deepwater Rigs
  • Figure 17: Rig Managers of Deepwater Rigs Under Construction
  • Figure 18: Day rates of Semi-submersibles, Drillship and Jackup Drilling Rigs by Workscope
  • Figure 19: Average day rates of Deepwater Rigs Under Contract (January 2018)
  • Figure 20: Leasing Contractors of Existing and Under Construction Deepwater FPS Units
  • Figure 21: Leased Deepwater FPS Units on Contract by Region
  • Figure 22: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production Tree Order Value Q1 2009-Q3 2017
  • Figure 23: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production and Processing Backlog Q1 2009-Q3 2017
  • Figure 24: Market Share of Subsea Tree Suppliers by Order Value Q1-3 2017
  • Figure 25: Westwood's Base Case - Deepwater Subsea Trees Installed by Field Status
  • Figure 26: Global - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 27: Global - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 28: Africa - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 29: Asia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 30: Australasia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 31: Eastern Europe & CIS - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 32: Latin America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 33: Middle East - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 34: North America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 35: Western Europe - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2013-2022
  • Figure 36: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 37: Subsea Drilling - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 38: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 39: Surface Drilling - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 40: Subsea Trees & TMFJ - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 41: Subsea Trees & TMFJ - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 42: SURF - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 43: SURF - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 44: Line Pipe - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 45: Line Pipe - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Figure 46: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2013-2022
  • Figure 47: Floating Production Systems - Capex Profile - Historic vs. Forecast
  • Table 1: International E&P Expenditure
  • Table 2: E&P Expenditure (Consolidated)
  • Table 3: Completion Strategy and Deepwater Field Development Concept Selection
  • Table 4: Global - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2017-2022
  • Table 5: Global - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 6: Africa - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 7: Asia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 8: Australasia - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 9: Eastern Europe & CIS - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 10: Latin America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 11: Middle East - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 12: North America - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 13: Western Europe - Deepwater Capex by Component, 2017-2022
  • Table 14: Drilling and Completion: Subsea Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 15: Drilling and Completion: Surface Wells - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 16: Subsea Trees & TMFJ - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 17: SURF - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 18: Line Pipe - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
  • Table 19: Floating Production Systems - Deepwater Capex by Region, 2016-2021
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