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Market Research Report

World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2019-2023

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 300118
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World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2019-2023
Published: October 31, 2018 Content info:
Description

A Slow and Measured Recovery but Turbulence Remains for Offshore Helicopters

October 2018, the offshore helicopter market continues to struggle with low utilisation as a consequence of over-ordering during the peak oil and gas years, despite continued but conservative optimism on the mid-term growth potential.

Many of you will be familiar with this scenario with other asset classes in oilfield services, however unlike many of these, helicopters tend to have long service lives. This means that in the absence of significant external factors such as new regulations or E&P activity, little can be done to alter the current chronic over-capacity situation and the movement of helicopters within the supply chain at a heavily reduced cost.

Key Conclusions Include:

  • Offshore oil & gas helicopter expenditure to total $18bn over 2019-2023
  • Westwood expects $130m of offshore wind related helicopter expenditure over the forecast, with a CAGR of 17%
  • Global utilisation to 68% and 63% over the forecast across the medium and large helicopter fleet
  • Western Europe looks to remain as the largest region by expenditure, accounting for 30% of the global total
  • North America is to see negative growth, despite several deepwater projects going ahead, due to the number of platforms being removed from the Gulf of Mexico
  • Greenfield projects in Brazil, as well as the rapid expansion of Guyana's oil sector, will see Latin America grow at a 4% CAGR, second only to Australasia's 11%

    In our latest report, Westwood's “World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast (2019-2023) ” goes some way to supporting industry consensus for the future demand of helicopter operations and specifically identifies the risks and the opportunities for rotorcraft operators within oil and gas and offshore wind. Indeed, the five-year period to 2023 forecasts a total of $18bn of expenditure on helicopter operations versus $16bn over 2017-2022 as last reported in 2017. Whilst for oil and gas, Westwood sees this as mostly incremental growth - new developments as opposed to any major change in outlook for existing operations - it provides a welcome outlook.

These new oil and gas opportunities lie within non-traditional and undeveloped areas such as the Guyana or East Africa and one would expect newer, ‘super medium' fleets with modern safety and comfort standards and lower operating costs to be favoured over the older ‘heavy' fleets.

A total of 62 next generation medium aircraft are currently on order and expecting delivery over the next 3 years. However, it should be noted that early in 2018, ExxonMobil announced a 5-year agreement with Bristow for three medium AW139s to service its Liza development (Guyana), rather than any of the 12 H175s Bristow currently has on order.

Offshore wind continues to increase in relevance and scale with 5,661 turbines to be installed globally over 2019-2023 accounting for $32m of construction related helicopter spend and whilst the UK continues to dominate activity for both O&M and construction activity, other regions are also set to experience rapid growth, albeit on a much smaller scale.

Following on from previous restructuring and reorganisation, operators and other stakeholders are now better positioned than ever before to weather the ongoing turbulence but remain at risk where a lack of capital discipline combined with spare capacity, lower contract values and a more competitive environment combine.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary & Conclusions
  • Summary & Conclusions

2. Macro Economic Outlook

  • Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand
  • A Shifting Focus
  • Oil Supply-Demand Balance
  • Development Costs
  • Offshore Production Outlook
  • Oil & Gas Challenges

3. Offshore Oil & Gas Drivers

  • Offshore Helicopter - Oil & Gas Drivers
  • Offshore Wells Drilled
  • Fixed and Floating Platform Population
  • Global Offshore Platform Population
  • Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations

4. Offshore Wind Drivers

  • Offshore Helicopter - Offshore Wind Drivers
  • Offshore Wind Installations and Population
  • Offshore Wind and Evolution of Helicopter Use
  • Helicopter Use and Distance from Shore

5. Supply Chain

  • Helicopter Classification
  • O&G Contracting Process
  • Tender Process
  • Helicopter Fleet - Positioning
  • Helicopter Operators - Market Positioning
  • Oil & Gas Competitive Landscape
  • Helicopter Purchasing Activity
  • Leasing Contracts
  • Global Helicopter Supply: Evolution of Size
  • Manufacturer Review

6. Methodology & Limitations

  • Methodology
  • Barriers & Limitations

7. Offshore Oil & Gas Market Analysis

  • Helicopter Region Characteristics
  • Offshore O&G Helicopter Passenger Demand
  • Offshore O&G Platform Distance From Nearest Heliport
  • Global Expenditure Outlook
  • Global Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Africa: Expenditure Outlook
  • Africa: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Asia: Expenditure Outlook
  • Asia: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Australasia: Expenditure Outlook
  • Australasia: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Eastern Europe & FSU: Expenditure Outlook
  • Eastern Europe & FSU: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Latin America: Expenditure Outlook
  • Latin America: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Middle East: Expenditure Outlook
  • Middle East: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • North America: Expenditure Outlook
  • North America: Supply & Demand Outlook
  • Western Europe: Expenditure Outlook
  • Western Europe: Supply & Demand Outlook

8. Offshore Wind Market Analysis

  • Global Expenditure Outlook
  • China Expenditure Outlook
  • Denmark Expenditure Outlook
  • Germany Expenditure Outlook
  • UK Expenditure Outlook
  • Rest of World Expenditure Outlook

9. Appendix

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Region 2013-2022
  • Figure 2: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Country 2013-2022
  • Figure 3: Global Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 4: Population and Primary Energy Demand 1965-2035
  • Figure 5: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity 1980-2015
  • Figure 6: Oil Supply-Demand Balance and Implied Oversupply 2015-2022
  • Figure 7: Consensus Brent Oil Price Forecast 2010-2021
  • Figure 8: Development Cost per Barrel by Development Type 2012-2016
  • Figure 9: Indicative Reactivity to Oil Price Recovery by Development Type
  • Figure 10: Total Production YoY Change by Shallow and Deepwater by Region
  • Figure 11: Oil & Gas Production and E&P Capital Exp 2000-2017
  • Figure 12: Sectors Workers are Seeking Employment in Outside of Oil & Gas
  • Figure 13: Shallow Water (<500m) Wells Drilled 2001-2022
  • Figure 14: Deepwater (>500m) Wells Drilled 2001-2022
  • Figure 15: Fixed Platform Population 2001-2022
  • Figure 16: Floating Platform Population 2001-2022
  • Figure 17: Total Platform Population by Region 2017
  • Figure 18: Fixed and Floating Platform Population by Region in-situ as of end of 2017
  • Figure 19: Offshore MMO Exp on Fixed and Floating Platforms 2012-2022
  • Figure 20: Fixed Platforms Age Profiles
  • Figure 21: Offshore Wind Turbines Installed 2002-2022
  • Figure 22: Offshore Wind Turbine Population 2002-2022
  • Figure 24: Helicopter Turbine Hoisting Spacing Requirements
  • Figure 23: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines
  • Figure 25: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines Installed to 2022
  • Figure 26: Contracting Process
  • Figure 27: Global Deliveries Overview 1960-2020 (as of end of 2017)
  • Figure 28: Platform Average and Max Distance from Nearest Heliport
  • Figure 29: Platform Average Distance from Nearest Heliport by Installation Year
  • Figure 30: Global Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Region 2013-2022
  • Figure 31: Global Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 32: Global Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 33: Global Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 34: Africa Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 35: Africa Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 36: Africa Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 37: Africa Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 38: Asia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 39: Asia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 40: Asia Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 41: Asia Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 42: Australasia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 43: Australasia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 44: Australasia Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 45: Australasia Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 46: E.Europe & FSU Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 47: E.Europe & FSU Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 48: E.Europe & FSU Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 49: E.Europe & FSU Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 50: Latin America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 51: Latin America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 52: Latin America Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 53: Latin America Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 54: Middle East Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 55: Middle East Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 56: Middle East Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 57: Middle East Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 58: North America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 59: North America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 60: North America Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 61: North America Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 62: Western Europe Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
  • Figure 63: Western Europe Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 64: Western Europe Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 65: Western Europe Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
  • Figure 66: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Country 2013-2022
  • Figure 67: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 68: China Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 69: China Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
  • Figure 70: Denmark Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 71: Denmark Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
  • Figure 72: Germany Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 73: Germany Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
  • Figure 74: UK Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 75: UK Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
  • Figure 76: Rest of World Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
  • Figure 77: Rest of World Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022

Tables

  • Table 1: Specifications By Helicopter Type
  • Table 2: Global Deliveries Overview 1960-2020 (as of end of 2017)
  • Table 3: Global Offshore O&G Expenditure by Region 2017-2022
  • Table 4: Africa Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 5: Top Helicopters Available in the African Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 6: Asia Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 7: Top Helicopters Available in the Asian Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 8: Australasia Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 9: Top Helicopters Available in the Australasian Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 10: Eastern Europe & FSU Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 11: Top Helicopters Available in the EE & FSU Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 12: Latin America Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 13: Top Helicopters Available in the Latin American Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 14: Middle East Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 15: Top Helicopters Available in the Middle Eastern Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 16: North America Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 17: Top Helicopters Available in the North American Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 18: Western Europe Offshore O&G Expenditure by Size 2017-2022
  • Table 19: Top Helicopters Available in the Western Europe Offshore O&G Market
  • Table 20: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Expenditure by Country 2017-2022
  • Table 21: China Offshore Wind Helicopter Expenditure by Life Cycle 2017-2022
  • Table 22: Key Chinese Projects Coming Online 2018-2022
  • Table 23: Denmark Offshore Wind Helicopter Expenditure by Life Cycle 2017-2022
  • Table 24: Key Danish Projects Coming Online 2018-2022
  • Table 25: Germany Offshore Wind Helicopter Expenditure by Life Cycle 2017-2022
  • Table 26: Key German Projects Coming Online 2018-2022
  • Table 27: UK Offshore Wind Helicopter Expenditure by Life Cycle 2017-2022
  • Table 28: Key British Projects Coming Online 2018-2022
  • Table 29: RoW Offshore Wind Helicopter Expenditure by Life Cycle 2017-2022
  • Table 30: Key RoW Projects Coming Online 2018-2022
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