World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2019-2023

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	Market Research Report World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast 2019-2023
Published by	Douglas-Westwood			Product code	300118
Published	October 31, 2018	Content info	Delivery time: 1-2 business days
Price	PDF by E-mail (Single User License) USD 18088 PDF by E-mail (5 User License) USD 19418

Description

A Slow and Measured Recovery but Turbulence Remains for Offshore Helicopters

October 2018, the offshore helicopter market continues to struggle with low utilisation as a consequence of over-ordering during the peak oil and gas years, despite continued but conservative optimism on the mid-term growth potential.

Many of you will be familiar with this scenario with other asset classes in oilfield services, however unlike many of these, helicopters tend to have long service lives. This means that in the absence of significant external factors such as new regulations or E&P activity, little can be done to alter the current chronic over-capacity situation and the movement of helicopters within the supply chain at a heavily reduced cost.

Key Conclusions Include:

Offshore oil & gas helicopter expenditure to total $18bn over 2019-2023

Westwood expects $130m of offshore wind related helicopter expenditure over the forecast, with a CAGR of 17%

Global utilisation to 68% and 63% over the forecast across the medium and large helicopter fleet

Western Europe looks to remain as the largest region by expenditure, accounting for 30% of the global total

North America is to see negative growth, despite several deepwater projects going ahead, due to the number of platforms being removed from the Gulf of Mexico

Greenfield projects in Brazil, as well as the rapid expansion of Guyana's oil sector, will see Latin America grow at a 4% CAGR, second only to Australasia's 11%
In our latest report, Westwood's “World Offshore Helicopters Market Forecast (2019-2023) ” goes some way to supporting industry consensus for the future demand of helicopter operations and specifically identifies the risks and the opportunities for rotorcraft operators within oil and gas and offshore wind. Indeed, the five-year period to 2023 forecasts a total of $18bn of expenditure on helicopter operations versus $16bn over 2017-2022 as last reported in 2017. Whilst for oil and gas, Westwood sees this as mostly incremental growth - new developments as opposed to any major change in outlook for existing operations - it provides a welcome outlook.

These new oil and gas opportunities lie within non-traditional and undeveloped areas such as the Guyana or East Africa and one would expect newer, ‘super medium' fleets with modern safety and comfort standards and lower operating costs to be favoured over the older ‘heavy' fleets.

A total of 62 next generation medium aircraft are currently on order and expecting delivery over the next 3 years. However, it should be noted that early in 2018, ExxonMobil announced a 5-year agreement with Bristow for three medium AW139s to service its Liza development (Guyana), rather than any of the 12 H175s Bristow currently has on order.

Offshore wind continues to increase in relevance and scale with 5,661 turbines to be installed globally over 2019-2023 accounting for $32m of construction related helicopter spend and whilst the UK continues to dominate activity for both O&M and construction activity, other regions are also set to experience rapid growth, albeit on a much smaller scale.

Following on from previous restructuring and reorganisation, operators and other stakeholders are now better positioned than ever before to weather the ongoing turbulence but remain at risk where a lack of capital discipline combined with spare capacity, lower contract values and a more competitive environment combine.

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

Summary & Conclusions
Summary & Conclusions

2. Macro Economic Outlook

Population & GDP Growth Drive Energy Demand
A Shifting Focus
Oil Supply-Demand Balance
Development Costs
Offshore Production Outlook
Oil & Gas Challenges

3. Offshore Oil & Gas Drivers

Offshore Helicopter - Oil & Gas Drivers
Offshore Wells Drilled
Fixed and Floating Platform Population
Global Offshore Platform Population
Offshore Maintenance, Modifications & Operations

4. Offshore Wind Drivers

Offshore Helicopter - Offshore Wind Drivers
Offshore Wind Installations and Population
Offshore Wind and Evolution of Helicopter Use
Helicopter Use and Distance from Shore

5. Supply Chain

Helicopter Classification
O&G Contracting Process
Tender Process
Helicopter Fleet - Positioning
Helicopter Operators - Market Positioning
Oil & Gas Competitive Landscape
Helicopter Purchasing Activity
Leasing Contracts
Global Helicopter Supply: Evolution of Size
Manufacturer Review

6. Methodology & Limitations

Methodology
Barriers & Limitations

7. Offshore Oil & Gas Market Analysis

Helicopter Region Characteristics
Offshore O&G Helicopter Passenger Demand
Offshore O&G Platform Distance From Nearest Heliport
Global Expenditure Outlook
Global Supply & Demand Outlook
Africa: Expenditure Outlook
Africa: Supply & Demand Outlook
Asia: Expenditure Outlook
Asia: Supply & Demand Outlook
Australasia: Expenditure Outlook
Australasia: Supply & Demand Outlook
Eastern Europe & FSU: Expenditure Outlook
Eastern Europe & FSU: Supply & Demand Outlook
Latin America: Expenditure Outlook
Latin America: Supply & Demand Outlook
Middle East: Expenditure Outlook
Middle East: Supply & Demand Outlook
North America: Expenditure Outlook
North America: Supply & Demand Outlook
Western Europe: Expenditure Outlook
Western Europe: Supply & Demand Outlook

8. Offshore Wind Market Analysis

Global Expenditure Outlook
China Expenditure Outlook
Denmark Expenditure Outlook
Germany Expenditure Outlook
UK Expenditure Outlook
Rest of World Expenditure Outlook

9. Appendix

Figures

Figure 1: Global Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Region 2013-2022
Figure 2: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Country 2013-2022
Figure 3: Global Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 4: Population and Primary Energy Demand 1965-2035
Figure 5: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity 1980-2015
Figure 6: Oil Supply-Demand Balance and Implied Oversupply 2015-2022
Figure 7: Consensus Brent Oil Price Forecast 2010-2021
Figure 8: Development Cost per Barrel by Development Type 2012-2016
Figure 9: Indicative Reactivity to Oil Price Recovery by Development Type
Figure 10: Total Production YoY Change by Shallow and Deepwater by Region
Figure 11: Oil & Gas Production and E&P Capital Exp 2000-2017
Figure 12: Sectors Workers are Seeking Employment in Outside of Oil & Gas
Figure 13: Shallow Water (<500m) Wells Drilled 2001-2022
Figure 14: Deepwater (>500m) Wells Drilled 2001-2022
Figure 15: Fixed Platform Population 2001-2022
Figure 16: Floating Platform Population 2001-2022
Figure 17: Total Platform Population by Region 2017
Figure 18: Fixed and Floating Platform Population by Region in-situ as of end of 2017
Figure 19: Offshore MMO Exp on Fixed and Floating Platforms 2012-2022
Figure 20: Fixed Platforms Age Profiles
Figure 21: Offshore Wind Turbines Installed 2002-2022
Figure 22: Offshore Wind Turbine Population 2002-2022
Figure 24: Helicopter Turbine Hoisting Spacing Requirements
Figure 23: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines
Figure 25: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines Installed to 2022
Figure 26: Contracting Process
Figure 27: Global Deliveries Overview 1960-2020 (as of end of 2017)
Figure 28: Platform Average and Max Distance from Nearest Heliport
Figure 29: Platform Average Distance from Nearest Heliport by Installation Year
Figure 30: Global Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Region 2013-2022
Figure 31: Global Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 32: Global Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 33: Global Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 34: Africa Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 35: Africa Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 36: Africa Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 37: Africa Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 38: Asia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 39: Asia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 40: Asia Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 41: Asia Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 42: Australasia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 43: Australasia Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 44: Australasia Medium Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 45: Australasia Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 46: E.Europe & FSU Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 47: E.Europe & FSU Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 48: E.Europe & FSU Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 49: E.Europe & FSU Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 50: Latin America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 51: Latin America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 52: Latin America Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 53: Latin America Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 54: Middle East Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 55: Middle East Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 56: Middle East Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 57: Middle East Large Offshore O&G Helicopter Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 58: North America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 59: North America Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 60: North America Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 61: North America Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 62: Western Europe Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Size 2013-2022
Figure 63: Western Europe Offshore O&G Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 64: Western Europe Medium Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 65: Western Europe Large Offshore O&G Heli Demand & Supply 2013-2022
Figure 66: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Country 2013-2022
Figure 67: Global Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 68: China Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 69: China Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
Figure 70: Denmark Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 71: Denmark Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
Figure 72: Germany Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 73: Germany Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
Figure 74: UK Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 75: UK Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022
Figure 76: Rest of World Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Life Cycle 2013-2022
Figure 77: Rest of World Offshore Wind Helicopter Exp by Status 2013-2022