Cover Image
Market Research Report

World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2019-2023

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 303589
Published Content info 63 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
Price
Back to Top
World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2019-2023
Published: November 13, 2018 Content info: 63 Pages
Description

Oil Price Recovery Supports Investment, with Subsea Vessel Operations and Hardware Spend Amounting to $152bn over the 2019-2023 Period

The recovery in oil prices to above $70/bbl continues to spur a new wave of offshore investment. In view of this, Westwood is forecasting a rebound in offshore activity, with subsea vessel operations and hardware expenditure expected to amount to $152bn over the 2019-2023 period. The recovery in the subsea market is evident, with the positive sentiment seen in 2017 continued into 2018. This has significantly supported project sanctioning, with the number of greenfield projects passing the final investment decision stage in 2018 increasing by 154% compared with 2016, at the low-point of the downturn. This is supported by positive macro drivers in the near and long-term, albeit the recovery remains dependent on geopolitics and OPEC.

Supply-chain conditions remain challenging, and despite the strength of free-cash flow to operators, this has not yet translated to an improved commercial environment for services and equipment. In addition to tight cost control and capital discipline, operators are also managing their risk exposure through phased developments and standardised solutions for equipment.

Contact us to access the latest Subsea Vessels Operations & Hardware databook.

Key Conclusions

  • Over the forecast period, subsea hardware will account for 64% ($97.6bn) of expenditure, with subsea vessels operations accounting for the remaining 36% ($55.4bn) of forecast expenditure.
  • Subsea tree installation, a key indicator of subsea activities, is forecast to grow at a 6% CAGR over the 2019-2023 period, driven by Petrobras' investments in the Santos Basin and Equinor's commitments to ongoing projects in the Barents Sea and North Sea.
  • Over 18,482km of line pipes are expected to be installed over the forecast, amounting to $44.7bn in both material and installation costs - 29% of total expenditure over 2019-2023.
  • Westwood expects a significant volume of IMR activity to return to the market, with vessel-related IMR activity expenditure forecast to amount to $21bn over 2019-2023. This represents a 25% growth compared to the 2014-2018 period.
  • Subsea vessel demand days are forecast to total over 387,963 vessel days, representing a 12% growth compared to the hindcast. This will support an expected rise in vessel day rates in the latter years of the forecast, as the vessel supply-demand balance tightens due to low book-to-fleet ratio and an increase in retired vessels.

Find Out More

“The World Subsea Vessel Operations & Hardware Market Forecast 2019-2023” is presented using Westwood's proprietary database, with detailed insight on both the subsea hardware and vessel day demand by vessel type in eight distinct regions. This market forecast is based on a thorough scrutiny of the data which enables the forecasts to be built on a project-by-project basis, enabling Westwood to consider various market conditions which further complement the detailed evaluation of market activity and anticipated market development.

Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-75-6

Table of Contents

1. Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2. Macro Drivers and Economic Overview

  • Subsea Focus Areas
  • Key Recent Events
  • Operator Free Cash
  • Oil & Gas Supply: Near-term Outlook
  • Consensus Oil Price
  • Concensus Gas Price
  • Subsea Production by Country
  • Subsea Evolution

3. Definitions & Terminology

  • Why Subsea?
  • Offshore Production Options
  • Subsea Xmas Trees & TMFJ Hardware
  • SURF and Pipelines
  • Offshore Field Lifecycle and Subsea Vessels
  • Vessel Types
  • Vessel Definitions

4. Hardware Supply Chain and Contractors

  • The Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
  • Subsea Xmas Trees, TMFJ, SURF and Pipeline Competitive Landscape
  • Subsea Tree Market Trends
  • Subsea Frame Agreements

5. The Vessel Fleet

  • Evolution of the Global Vessel Supply
  • Global Vessel Supply
  • DSVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • MSVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Flex-Lays - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Pipelays - Supply Side Market Trends
  • LWIVs - Supply Side Market Trends
  • Day Rate Analysis

6. Market Forecast

  • Methodology: Westwood Forecasting Process
  • Methodology: Expenditure Forecasts
  • Model Summary & Assumptions
  • Hardware Assumptions
  • Global Subsea Hardware Market - Component Analysis
  • Global Subsea Vessel Ops Market - Demand & Expenditure
  • Africa - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Africa - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Asia - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Asia - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Australasia - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Australasia - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Eastern Europe & CIS - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Eastern Europe & CIS - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Latin America - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Latin America - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Middle East - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Middle East - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • North America - Hardware Component Analysis
  • North America - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure
  • Western Europe - Hardware Component Analysis
  • Western Europe - Vessel Day Demand & Expenditure

7. Appendix

Figures & Tables

  • Figure 1: Global - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 2: Global - Vessel Demand Expenditure by Vessel Activity Type, 2014-2023
  • Figure 3: Subsea Focus Areas
  • Figure 4: Operator Free Cash Flow
  • Figure 5: Regional Year-on-Year Production Increase by Year (2019-2023)
  • Figure 6: Consensus Oil Price Forecast 2014-2023
  • Figure 7: Henry Hub Gas Price Consensus 2014-2023
  • Figure 8: 2018-2023 Production Change (kboe/d)
  • Figure 9: Surface vs. Subsea Oil & Gas Production, 2006-2023
  • Figure 10: Global - Subsea Tree Installation by Water Depth 1961-2018
  • Figure 11: Top-down view of a typical subsea production arrangement
  • Figure 12: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain
  • Figure 13: Subsea Prodcution Tree Order Value ($bn)
  • Figure 14: Visible Subsea Production and Processing System Backlog
  • Figure 15: Visible Active Subsea Tree Frame Agreement
  • Figure 16: Historic Vessel Deliveries by Type 1960-2018
  • Figure 17: Active Global Fleet by Type
  • Figure 18: Book-to-Fleet Ratio by Vessel Type
  • Figure 19: 2018 vs. 2014 Day Rate Ranges
  • Figure 20: Westwood's Base Case - Subsea Tree Installations by Field Status
  • Figure 21: Global - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 22: Global - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 23: Global - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 24: Africa - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 25: Africa - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 26: Africa - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 27: Asia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 28: Asia - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 29: Asia - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 30: Australasia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 31: Australasia - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 32: Australasia - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 33: E.Europe & CIS - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-23
  • Figure 34: E.Europe & CIS - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-23
  • Figure 35: Eastern Europe & CIS - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 36: Latin America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 37: Latin America - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-23
  • Figure 38: Latin America - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 39: Middle East - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 40: Middle East - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 41: Middle East - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 42: North America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 43: North America - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-23
  • Figure 44: North America - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Figure 45: Western Europe - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2014-2023
  • Figure 46: W.Europe - Subsea Vessel Operations Expenditure by Market, 2014-2023
  • Figure 47: Western Europe - Vessel Day Expenditure by Vessel Type, 2018-2023
  • Table 1: Vessel Definitions
  • Table 2: Vessel Categories
  • Table 3: Subsea Vessel Summaries by Type
  • Table 4: DSV Suppliers
  • Table 5: MSV Suppliers
  • Table 6: Flex-Lays Suppliers
  • Table 7: Pipelay Suppliers
  • Table 8: LWIV Suppliers
  • Table 9: Westwood Expenditure Outputs
  • Table 10: Global - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 11: Global - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 12: Africa - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 13: Africa - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 14: Asia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 15: Asia- Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 16: Australasia - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 17: Australasia- Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 18: E.Europe & CIS - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 19: Eastern Europe & CIS - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 20: Latin America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 21: Latin America- Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 22: Middle East - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 23: Middle East - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 24: North America - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 25: North America - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
  • Table 26: Western Europe - Subsea Hardware Expenditure by Component, 2018-2023
  • Table 27: Western Europe - Vessel Day Expenditure by Market, 2018-2023
Back to Top