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Market Research Report

World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast 2016-2020

Published by Douglas-Westwood Product code 303589
Published Content info 59 Pages
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World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast 2016-2020
Published: April 15, 2016 Content info: 59 Pages
Description

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Subsea Hardware Market exposed to Oil Price Downturn as Backlog Declines, Expenditure to total $94.3 Billion over 2016-2020 Period

Douglas-Westwood (DW) expects subsea hardware Capex to total $94.3 billion (bn) over 2016-2020. This represents a 19% decline compared with the preceding five-year period. Capex and subsea tree installations are not expected to return to 2014 record levels during the forecast period. This is due to a sustained decline in the number of subsea tree orders, following record order levels in 2013. Historically high backlog levels have cushioned the market against the decline in order activity. However, DW does not expect this to be sufficient to counteract a further decline in orders in the near-term, exposing OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) to the impact of the oil price downturn.

Despite these near-term concerns, the long-term fundamentals of the subsea hardware industry are strong as they continue to benefit from continued increase in hydrocarbon demand, declining onshore and shallow water reserves and technological improvements. Despite concerns over deepwater project economics, subsea expenditure continues to trend towards deeper water, which accounts for 48% of total expenditure over the forecast period - an 8% increase compared with the hindcast. This growth is supported by projects in water depths greater than 1,000metres. Over the next five years, development activity in the established deepwater provinces, coupled with the start of field development in frontier areas such as East Africa, will support expenditure.

Overall, subsea hardware expenditure will be highest in Africa, Asia and Latin America, which will account for a combined 47% of total Capex over the forecast period. The largest proportion of expenditure will be attributed to pipelines (41%), whilst subsea production and SURF will account for 33% and 26% respectively. Pipeline kilometres to be installed over the 2016-2020 period will remain relatively high. This market is heavily dependent on a handful of major projects, and as a result, the cancellation or stalling of any of these projects will have a negative impact on the market size over the forecast period.

Over the forecast period, subsea hardware Capex will be constrained as the prolonged low oil price hits numerous projects on a global scale. This will have a negative impact for both operators and subsea manufacturers, as the impact of delayed projects is likely to last long into the forecast period even as oil prices start a slow recovery. However, some projects are expected to be sanctioned once development concept has been redefined and equipment costs lessen.

The World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast 2016-2020 details specific subsea hardware trends by region and component supported by analysis, insight and industry consultation, and includes:

  • Key drivers - discussion of factors affecting deepwater activity, including: sustained low oil & gas prices; deepwater production to offset declining production from onshore and shallow water basins; E&P spend of international operators; and Petrobras' activity in Brazil.
  • Supply chain - detailing the key players within the subsea hardware market and analysis of top manufacturers' subsea orders and backlog.
  • Regional forecasts - forecast Capex within each region, including examples of notable projects and operators within the region and countries with most activity. Each regional forecast is broken down by water depth category.
  • Component forecasts - forecast by subsea production hardware (trees, controls, templates & manifolds, flying leads, jumpers), SURF and pipeline Capex and units/km installed.

Why purchase the World Subsea Hardware Market Forecast?

DW's market forecasting is trusted by sector players worldwide, with clients including the world's top-10 oil & gas companies, top-10 oilfield services companies and top-10 private equity firms.

The report is relevant for financial institutions, equipment manufacturers, offshore construction companies, drilling operators, oilfield services companies and oil & gas companies wanting to better understand where and when to make investment decisions.

Our proven approach includes:

  • Unique and proprietary data - updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry consultation.
  • Detailed methodology - the report uses research from DW's 'Oil & Gas Database', an in-house information system exclusive to DW. Our global analyst team is involved in the gathering and analysis of deepwater market data through primary research and professional networks. A project-by-project review of development prospects drives a data-rich market model and forecast.
  • Comprehensive analysis - examination, analysis and 10-year coverage of expenditure by region, depth and hardware type: subsea production hardware, SURF and pipelines.
  • Concise report layout - consistent with DW's commitment to delivering value for our clients, all our market forecasts have a concise layout consisting of industry background and supporting materials condensed to enable quick review with 'speed-read' summaries of key points throughout.
Table of Contents
Product Code: ISBN 978-1-910045-33-6

Table of Contents

1 Summary & Conclusions

  • Summary
  • Conclusions

2 Drivers & Indicators

  • Population, GDP & Energy Demand
  • Offshore Oil & Gas.
  • Oil - Supply & Demand
  • Oil Price Volatility
  • Oil Price Impacts
  • Natural Gas
  • Oil & Gas Challenges
  • E&P Trends - Spending Activity
  • Subsea Focus Areas

3 Subsea Development

  • Why Subsea?
  • Offshore Production Options
  • Subsea Production Hardware
  • SURF and Pipelines

4 Supply Chain

  • The Subsea Equipment Supply Chain
  • Subsea Production, SURF and Pipeline Competitive Landscape
  • Subsea Tree Market Trends

5 Subsea Hardware Market Forecast

  • Methodology: DW Forecasting Process
  • Methodology: Expenditure Forecasts
  • Methodology: Market Modelling
  • Hardware Assumptions
  • The World Subsea Hardware Market - Regional Analysis
  • The World Subsea Hardware Market - Component Analysis
  • The World Subsea Hardware Market - Water Depth and Units
  • Africa - Capex
  • Africa - Units
  • Asia - Capex
  • Asia - Units
  • Australasia - Capex
  • Australasia - Units
  • Eastern Europe & FSU - Capex
  • Eastern Europe & FSU - Units
  • Latin America - Capex
  • Latin America - Units
  • Middle East - Capex
  • Middle East - Units
  • North America - Capex
  • North America - Units
  • Norway - Capex
  • Norway - Units
  • Rest of Western Europe - Capex
  • Rest of Western Europe - Units
  • United Kingdom - Capex
  • United Kingdom - Units

6 Appendix

  • Data and Text Conventions

Figures

  • Figure 1: Global Population Growth & Energy Demand, 1965-2035
  • Figure 2: OECD and Non-OECD Energy Intensity, 1980-2015
  • Figure 3: Onshore vs. Offshore Oil & Gas Production, 2005-2021
  • Figure 4: Global Deepwater Capex by Region 2011-2020
  • Figure 5: Oil Price & Demand,1990-2015
  • Figure 6: World Liquids Production Growth, 2005-2015
  • Figure 7: Historical Brent and WTI Oil Prices, February 2010-February 2016
  • Figure 8: Average Annual Brent Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
  • Figure 9: O&G Sector Average Stock Performance Index, June 2014-March 2016
  • Figure 10: Quarterly Visible Subsea Production Tree Orders, Q1 2008-Q4 2015
  • Figure 11: Natural Gas Prices* ($/mmBtu), 2010-2020
  • Figure 12: Henry Hub Annual Average Spot Price Forecasts, 2010-2020
  • Figure 13: Oil & Gas Production versus E&P Spend, 2000-2016
  • Figure 14: Subsea Focus Areas
  • Figure 15: Borghom Dolphin Facility, North Sea
  • Figure 16: Perdido platform in Gulf of Mexico
  • Figure 17: Subsea Processing in Greater Gorgon off of Australia
  • Figure 18: Subsea Flow Meter
  • Figure 19: Subsea Hardware Supply Chain.
  • Figure 20: Subsea Production Tree Order Value ($bn)
  • Figure 21: Visible Subsea Production and Processing System Backlog
  • Figure 22: DW Case - Subsea Tree Installations by Category
  • Figure 23: Global - Subsea Capex by Region, 2011-2020
  • Figure 24: Global - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 25: Global - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 26: Africa - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 27: Africa - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 28: Asia - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 29: Asia - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 30: Australasia - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 31: Australasia - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 32: Eastern Europe & FSU - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 33: Eastern Europe & FSU - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 34: Latin America - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 35: Latin America - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 36: Middle East - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 37: Middle East - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 38: North America - Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 39: North America - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 40: Norway- Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 41: Norway - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 42: RoWE- Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 43: RoWE - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020
  • Figure 44: UK- Subsea Capex by Component, 2011-2020
  • Figure 45: UK - Subsea Capex by Water Depth, 2011-2020

Tables

  • Table 1: International E&P Expenditure ($ million)
  • Table 2: E&P Expenditure (Consolidated)
  • Table 3: Subsea Production and SURF Competitive Landscape
  • Table 4: Global - Subsea Capex by Region, 2015-2020
  • Table 5: Global - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 6: Global - Subsea Installations by Water Depth, 2015-2020
  • Table 7: Africa - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 8: Top Four African Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 9: Africa - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 10: Asia - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 11: Top Four Asian Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 12: Asia - Subsea Components, 2015-2020.
  • Table 13: Australasia - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 14: Top Four Australasian Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 15: Australasia - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 16: Eastern Europe & FSU - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 17: Top Three East European Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 18: Eastern Europe & FSU - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 19: Latin America - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 20: Top Four Latin American Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 21: Latin America - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 22: Middle East - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 23: Top Three Middle Eastern Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 24: Middle East - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 25: North America - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020.
  • Table 26: Top Four North American Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 27: North America - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 28: Norway - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 29: Top Four Norwegian Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 30: Norway - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 31: RoWE - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 32: Top Two RoWE Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 33: RoWE - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
  • Table 34: UK - Subsea Capex by Component, 2015-2020
  • Table 35: Top Four UK Fields by Subsea Tree Installations
  • Table 36: UK - Subsea Components, 2015-2020
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