Market Potential for Level 4 Autonomous Trucks in the United States-Last-mile B2C Delivery

Description

Transformational Growth of Autonomous Vehicle Adoption to Result in 31.4% Autonomously-driven Last-mile B2C Deliveries in 2040

Autonomous trucks are the next logical step to overcome logistics bottlenecks and match pace with the rapidly changing freight carriage ecosystem. Unlike human drivers, who must limit their operating hours to remain safe, autonomous systems can operate trucks 24-7, increasing commodity flow in the freight value system. Several leading automotive OEMs have taken the initiative to develop and test their autonomous technologies, while some have invested in emerging technology start-ups.

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) defines 5 levels of vehicle automation. The higher the level, the higher the transfer of driving responsibility to machines, with L4 and L5 being very high automation. Each segment of transportation has scope for automation. The level of complexity varies, but for journeys ranging in length, from last-mile delivery and utility applications within a city to interstate long-haul transport, automated vehicles can change the transportation landscape.

This report focuses on the last-mile B2C delivery segment, where the product reaches the customer's location. It can include food and groceries from a neighborhood store or eCommerce parcels from local fulfillment centers. The routes are usually multistop, with deliveries at multiple customer locations in a single trip, and the weight of the goods varies.

The report analyzes application-wise retail sales data in the last-mile B2C delivery segment to calculate the potential total vehicles in operation, catered by Class 1 to 6 commercial vehicles. The total autonomous addressable market (TAAM) and the share of autonomous adoption within the addressable market (SAAM) are calculated for 2022, 2030, and 2040 by grass root analysis of each metropolitan area and phase-wise segregation of adoption.

Per Frost & Sullivan estimates, by 2040, 31.4% of the last-mile B2C delivery segment will be catered by autonomous Class 1 to 6 vehicles, and the total autonomous revenue will be approximately $69.98 B.

Product Code: PDB3-42

Strategic Imperatives

Why is it Increasingly Difficult to Grow?
The Strategic Imperative 8™
The Impact of the Top 3 Strategic
Growth Opportunities Fuel the Growth Pipeline Engine™

Growth Environment

Levels of Vehicle Automation
Impact of SAE Definitions
Different Territorial Avenues for Automation
Breakdown for Last-mile Delivery Operations
Delivery Modes in Last-mile B2C-Conventional versus Autonomous
Autonomous Companies' Testing/Deployment Landscape
Research Scope
Research Aims and Objectives
Autonomous Technology Segmentation
Growth Drivers
Growth Restraints
Growth Metrics

Forecast Methodology

Forecast Methodology

Segment 1-Last-mile B2C Delivery Class 1-6 VIO Forecast

Total US Retail Sales-All Major Last-mile Segment Applications
Segment Classification #1-Auto Parts & Accessories
Segment Classification #2-Home Decor & Hardware
Segment Classification #3-Electronics & Appliances
Segment Classification #4-Grocery & Other Necessities
Segment Classification #5-Nonstore Retailer
Segment Classification #6-Other Merchandise
Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO

Segment 2-Forecasting Phase-wise Autonomous Readiness of Metropolitan Areas

Selection of Top 384 Metropolitan Areas for Autonomous Score
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Score
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Population Density
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Consumption Score
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Age Group Score
Factors Impacting Autonomous Route Readiness-Regulation Score
Phase 1 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
Phase 2 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
Phase 3 Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM
Summary of Metropolitan Area Selection-Forecasting TAAM & SAAM

Segment 3-Forecast of Total Autonomous CVs in Last-mile B2C Delivery

Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery VIO-Application-wise Split
Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery TAAM VIO-Application-wise Split
Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery SAAM VIO-Application-wise Spilt
Total Class 1-6 Last-mile B2C Delivery-Revenue Forecast

Conclusion

Class 1-6 Autonomous Vehicles in Last-mile B2C Delivery-Units & Revenue Potential
Key Takeaways

Last-mile B2C Autonomous Player Profiles

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Gatik
Robomart*

Growth Opportunity Universe

Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations
Growth Opportunity 1-Favorable Autonomous Regulations (continued)
Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential
Growth Opportunity 2-Autonomous Revenue Potential (continued)
Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions
Growth Opportunity 3-New Applications and Diverse Operational Conditions (continued)

Next Steps

Your Next Steps
Why Frost, Why Now?
List of Exhibits
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