Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery Technologies

Summary

GBI Research's report "Herpes Market to 2018 - Genericization Compels Competitors Seeking Differentiation to Adopt Novel Drug Delivery Technologies" finds that the global herpes market is an attractive one, and is expected to witness growth during the forecast period and to provide good opportunities for investors. The expected high growth is attributed to increasing awareness regarding herpes infections and a growth in the diseased population. Many promising therapies, especially for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, are expected to launch during the forecast period. The market is currently generic in nature, with few first-in-class molecules. The current therapies provide only symptomatic treatment of infections, meaning that infection can lay dormant in patients, recurring in the future. This is unmet need of the market, which needs to be resolved.

The value of the global herpes market (herpes simplex, herpes zoster and Cytomegalovirus infections) is estimated to have been approximately $4.2 billion in 2010, and this figure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% to reach $9.1 billion by 2018. The market has limited scope for growth due to the heavy presence of generic products and the lack of innovation in the pipeline products. The current treatment options serve the market's needs, providing symptomatic treatment for herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections. There is current unmet need in the market for safer therapeutics, particularly for CMV infections. There are nine molecules in Phase III of clinical development for various herpes infections. The diseased population is expected to reach approximately 158.6 million by 2018, driven by immunosuppressed patients and transplant recipients.

GBI Research finds that the competition in the global herpes therapeutics market is strong, with the presence of four primary marketed drugs and many generic brands. The total viral therapeutics market is forecast to grow at a high rate until 2018. The emergence of novel therapies concentrating on increasing drug safety and increasing patient awareness and compliance are major factors that will contribute to the growth of this market. Since the market is genericized, there are numerous small tier companies manufacturing therapeutic drugs. However, the tier one manufacturers such as GlaxoSmithKline and Novartis will continue to dominate the market due to their extensive marketing and licensing strategies.

The herpes therapeutics market (herpes simplex and herpes zoster) was valued at $3.6 billion in 2010. The market grew at a CAGR of 14.2%, from $1.6 billion in 2004 to $3.6 billion in 2010. The primary objectives of the available therapies are the suppression and treatment of the symptoms of the disease. Drugs such as antivirals, analgesics.

Scope

• The report analyses the treatment patterns, market characterization, pipeline, competitive landscape and key merger and acquisition trends in the global herpes infection market.
• Data and analysis on the global herpes infection market.
• Market forecasts for the global herpes infection market until 2018.
• Market Data on the geographical landscape including country wise coverage, cost of therapy, market size and market share.
• Key drivers and restraints that have created a significant impact on the market.
• Competitive landscape of the global herpes infection market including top companies profiles. The key companies studied in this report are GlaxoSmithKline, Merck, Novartis and Roche.
• Key M&A activities and licensing agreements that have taken place between 2007 and 2011 in the global herpes infection market.

Reasons to buy

• The information in the report will aid business development and help marketing executives to build effective strategies to launch their pipeline products by identifying potential geographies.
• Exploit in-licensing and out-licensing opportunities by identifying products that might fill others' portfolio gaps.
• Develop key strategic initiatives by studying the key strategies of top competitors.
• Develop market-entry and market expansion strategies by identifying the geographic markets poised for strong growth.
• Reinforce R&D pipelines by identifying new target mechanisms which can produce first in class therapies with more efficacy and better safety.

Executive Summary

GBI Research finds that the global herpes market is an attractive one. The market is expected to witness growth during the forecast period and to provide good opportunities for investors. The high growth that is expected in the market is attributed to a number of factors, including increasing awareness about herpes infections, and a growth in the diseased population. Many promising therapies, especially for Cytomegalovirus (CMV) infections, are expected to be launched during the forecast period. The market is currently generic in nature, with few first in class molecules, and the current therapies provide only symptomatic treatment of infections - infections, once treated, can recur. The market, therefore, contains a significant unmet need, which needs to be resolved.

Global Herpes Market is Forecast to Grow at CAGR of 10.1%, Due to Growth in Diseased Population

The value of the global herpes market is estimated to have been approximately $4.2 billion in 2010, and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 10.1% until reaching $9.1 billion by 2018. The market has limited scope for growth due to the presence of generic products and a lack of innovation in the pipeline products. The current treatment options serve the market needs, providing symptomatic treatment for herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections. There is current unmet need in the market for safe therapeutics, particularly for CMV infections. There are nine molecules in Phase III of clinical development, being developed for various herpes infections. The diseased population is expected to grow to approximately 158.6 million by 2018. The growth in immunosuppressed patients and transplant recipients will be the driver for this market. The herpes market has strong competition from generics.

Herpes Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Grow at a CAGR of 11.2%, Despite Weak Pipeline and Presence of Generics in the Market

The herpes therapeutics market (herpes simplex and herpes zoster infections market) is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 11.2% during the forecast period 2010-2018. The herpes therapeutics market has low unmet needs in terms of both efficacy and safety - the efficacy of the present therapeutics ranges from moderate to strong, with drugs such as Zovirax having significantly strong efficacy profiles. Therapeutic interventions for herpes simplex are limited to oral formulations. The herpes therapeutics market is generic and there are many brands available with low prices. There are few first-in-class molecules present in the herpes therapeutics pipeline. Of these few, BA-021 is filed in the US for herpes simplex infections and it is expected to launch soon. In 2010, the diseased population of herpes simplex was estimated to be 120.3 million. The major driver of the market is the increase in diseased population, while a lack of awareness and social stigma are considered to be restraints on the herpes therapeutics market. Zostavax is the only vaccine approved in the US for the prophylactic treatment of herpes zoster infections. The launch of vaccine candidates such as GlaxoSmithKline Biologicals' GSK1437173A vaccine and V212 from Merck & Co. is expected in the coming years for herpes zoster infections

Launch of New Treatment Options Can Satisfy Current Unmet Needs of CMV Infections Market

The global CMV infection market was valued at $0.7 billion in 2010. The emergence of novel therapies, which concentrate on increased safety, has combined with increasing patient awareness and compliance to stimulate the growth of this market. The majority of pipeline products are biologics, contrary to the current marketed products, which are small molecules. The growth of the market can be attributed to the increasing number of AIDS/HIV patients, and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation (HSCT) and solid organ transplant recipients, all of which experience immunosuppression. The toxicity of the antiviral drugs used for the treatment of congenital CMV represents an unmet need in the existing treatment. Due to the long treatment duration of the antiviral drugs currently used in for the pre-emptive or prophylactic treatment of CMV infections in HSCT or SOT recipients, the chances of developing drug-related toxicity from that treatment is relatively high. Patients' development of resistance to current antiviral therapy is also a limitation for growth of this market. New treatment options, which are currently in Phase III, such as TransVax and Adoptive Cellular Therapy, are expected to satisfy the unmet needs of the market.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 3

• 1.1 List of Tables 5
• 1.2 List of Figures 6

2 Herpes Market to 2018 - Introduction 7

• 2.1 GBI Research Report Guidance 7

3 Herpes Market to 2018 - Market Overview 8

• 3.1 Introduction to Herpes Virus 8
  • 3.1.1 Types of Herpes Virus 8
  • 3.1.2 Herpes Simplex Infections 8
  • 3.1.3 Herpes Zoster Infections 8
  • 3.1.4 Cytomegalovirus Infections 9
• 3.2 Introduction to Herpes Market 10
  • 3.2.1 Revenue 10
  • 3.2.2 Annual Cost of Treatment ($) 11
  • 3.2.3 Treatment Usage Pattern 12

4 Herpes Market to 2018 - Geographical Landscape 14

• 4.1 Geographical Segmentation 14
• 4.2 The US 16
  • 4.2.1 Revenue 16
  • 4.2.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 17
• 4.3 Top Five Countries of Europe 19
  • 4.3.1 Revenue 19
  • 4.3.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 22
• 4.4 Japan 24
  • 4.4.1 Revenue 24
  • 4.4.2 Treatment Usage Pattern 25

5 Herpes Market to 2018 - Therapeutic Landscape 27

• 5.1 Global Herpes Therapeutics Market 27
  • 5.1.1 Introduction Herpes Simplex Infection 27
  • 5.1.2 Introduction to Herpes Zoster Infection 28
  • 5.1.3 Revenue 29
  • 5.1.4 Annual Cost of Treatment 33
  • 5.1.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 34
  • 5.1.6 Drivers and Restraints for the Herpes Therapeutics Market 36
  • 5.1.7 Drivers and Restraints for the Herpes Simplex Market 36
• 5.2 Global Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market 37
  • 5.2.1 Introduction 37
  • 5.2.2 Revenue 38
  • 5.2.3 Branded-Generic Share 41
  • 5.2.4 Annual Cost of Treatment 42
  • 5.2.5 Treatment Usage Pattern 43
  • 5.2.6 Drivers and Restraints for the CMV Infections Market 45

6 Herpes Market to 2018 - Pipeline Analysis 46

• 6.1 Introduction 46
• 6.2 Research and Development Pipeline by Indication 46
• 6.3 Profiles of Promising Molecules in the Herpes Therapeutics Market 52
  • 6.3.1 BA-021 52
  • 6.3.2 NB-001 52
  • 6.3.3 ARYS-01 54
  • 6.3.4 GSK 1437173A 54
  • 6.3.5 V212 55
  • 6.3.6 TransVax 55
  • 6.3.7 Adoptive Cellular Therapy (CMV Specific T-Cells) 56

7 Herpes Market to 2018 - Competitive Landscape 57

• 7.1 Competitive Profiling 57
  • 7.1.1 GlaxoSmithKline 57
  • 7.1.2 Novartis AG 58
  • 7.1.3 Merck 59
  • 7.1.4 Roche 60

8 Herpes Market to 2018 - Strategic Consolidations 62

• 8.1 Overview 62
  • 8.1.1 Deals by Type of Agreement 62
  • 8.1.2 Deals by Year 63
  • 8.1.3 Deals by Geography 64
  • 8.1.4 Profiling of Major Deals, 2007-2011 65

9 Herpes Market to 2018 - Appendix 66

• 9.1 Market Definitions 66
• 9.2 Abbreviations 66
• 9.3 Research Methodology 66
  • 9.3.1 Coverage 67
  • 9.3.2 Secondary Research 67
  • 9.3.3 Primary Research 67
  • 9.3.4 Therapeutic Landscape 68
  • 9.3.5 Geographical Landscape 71
  • 9.3.6 Pipeline Analysis 71
  • 9.3.7 Competitive Landscape 71
  • 9.3.8 Expert Panel Validation 71
• 9.4 Contact Us 71
• 9.5 Disclaimer 71
• 9.6 Sources 72

List of Tables

• Table 1: Herpes Market, Global, Revenues ($bn), 2004-2010 10
• Table 2: Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2010-2018 10
• Table 3: Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 11
• Table 4: Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 11
• Table 5: Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 12
• Table 6: Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 12
• Table 7: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 14
• Table 8: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-2018 15
• Table 9: Herpes Market, The US, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 16
• Table 10: Herpes Market, The US, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 16
• Table 11: Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 17
• Table 12: Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 18
• Table 13: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 19
• Table 14: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 19
• Table 15: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 20
• Table 16: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 21
• Table 17: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 22
• Table 18: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 23
• Table 19: Herpes Market, Japan, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 24
• Table 20: Herpes Market, Japan, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 24
• Table 21: Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 25
• Table 22: Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 25
• Table 23: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues ($bn), 2004-2010 29
• Table 24: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2010-2018 29
• Table 25: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 30
• Table 26: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-2018 31
• Table 27: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 33
• Table 28: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 33
• Table 29: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2010 34
• Table 30: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2010-2018 35
• Table 31: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenues ($m), 2004-2010 38
• Table 32: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2010-2018 38
• Table 33: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Revenues by Geography ($m), 2004-2010 39
• Table 34: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2010-2018 40
• Table 35: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2010 42
• Table 36: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2010-2018 42
• Table 37: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern ('000), 2004-2010 43
• Table 38: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern ('000), 2010-2018 44
• Table 39: Herpes Simplex Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase, September 2011 48
• Table 40: Herpes Zoster Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase, September 2011 49
• Table 41: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase, September 2011 51
• Table 42: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Type of Agreement, 2007-2011 62
• Table 43: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Geography, 2007-2011 64

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Herpes Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2004-2018 10
• Figure 2: Herpes Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2018 11
• Figure 3: Herpes Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 12
• Figure 4: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2004-2018 14
• Figure 5: Herpes Market, The US, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 16
• Figure 6: Herpes Market, The US, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 17
• Figure 7: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 19
• Figure 8: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 20
• Figure 9: Herpes Market, Top Five Countries of Europe, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 22
• Figure 10: Herpes Market, Japan, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 24
• Figure 11: Herpes Market, Japan, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 25
• Figure 12: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Algorithm 28
• Figure 13: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($bn), 2004-2018 29
• Figure 14: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2004-2018 30
• Figure 15: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Branded and Generic Market Share(%), 2010 and 2018 32
• Figure 16: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2018 33
• Figure 17: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern (millions), 2004-2018 34
• Figure 18: Herpes Therapeutics Market, Drivers and Barriers, 2010-2018 36
• Figure 19: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Revenue Forecasts ($m), 2004-2018 38
• Figure 20: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Revenue Forecasts by Geography ($m), 2004-2018 39
• Figure 21: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market ,Global, Branded and Generic Market Share (%), 2010 and 2018 41
• Figure 22: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market , Global, Annual Cost of Treatment ($), 2004-2018 42
• Figure 23: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, Treatment Usage Pattern ('000), 2004-2018 43
• Figure 24: Herpes Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Indication (%), September 2011 46
• Figure 25: Herpes Simplex Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase (%), September 2011 47
• Figure 26: Herpes Zoster Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase (%), September 2011 49
• Figure 27: Cytomegalovirus Therapeutics Market, Global, R&D Pipeline by Phase (%), September 2011 50
• Figure 28: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, GlaxoSmithKline, SWOT, 2011 58
• Figure 29: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, Novartis, SWOT, 2011 59
• Figure 30: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, Merck, SWOT, 2011 60
• Figure 31: Herpes Market, Global, Competitive Landscape, Roche, SWOT, 2011 61
• Figure 32: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Type of Agreement (%), 2007-2011 62
• Figure 33: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Year, 2007-2011 63
• Figure 34: Herpes Market, Global, Deals by Geography, (%), 2007-2011 64
• Figure 35: GBI Research Market Forecasting Model 70