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Global Risk Report - Q1 2018

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Global Risk Report - Q1 2018
Published: July 16, 2018 Content info: 77 Pages
Description

Synchronized upturn of developed nations, along with high growth of developing economies, firmed up the global economic activity in 2017. Higher export demand, strengthening of consumption expenditure and revival of investor's confidence is anticipated to strengthen the world economic activity further over the next year. Inflationary pressure globally is expected to rise marginally in 2018 on the rebound in commodity prices.

Global risk score stood at 40.1, out of 100 in Q1 2018, unchanged from Q3 2017, following a reduction from 40.4 in Q2 2017. Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.

Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018. The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.

Whereas, the risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018.

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

  • Europe witnessed a reduction in risk score (32.8 in Q1 2018 vs 32.7 Q3 2017) on improved economic outlook of the region. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Bosnia, Belarus and Belgium whereas overall risk increased in Greece, UK and Czech Republic in GCRI Q1 2018 update.
  • Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. Taiwan, Bangladesh, Cambodia and New Zealand registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the Philippines increased in Q1 2018 over the last update.
  • The risk score of the Americas remained unchanged over the previous update in Q1 2018, following a decline in Q3 2017 over Q2 2017. Colombia, Peru and Chile recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in the US and Venezuela increased in Q1 2018
  • The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q1 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risk due to events such as the Qatar crisis, Yemen conflict, sanctions on Iran along with weak economic performance in the region.

Reasons to buy

  • The fifth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q1 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Switzerland.
  • 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 35 countries in the low risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q1 2018.
Table of Contents
Product Code: GDER0005CHR

1 Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 2

  • 1.1 List of Tables 4
  • 1.2 List of Figures 4

2 Flashback (January to June 2018) 6

3 Key Events: July - December 2018 7

4 Global Overview - Summary 8

  • 4.1 Global growth to strengthen further in 2018 8
  • 4.2 Global Overview - Key Highlights 9

5 GCRI - Country Ranking 11

6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018 13

7 Regional Analysis 14

  • 7.1 Asia Pacific 14
    • 7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 14
    • 7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 15
    • 7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 17
    • 7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 18
    • 7.1.5 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific 20
    • 7.1.6 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 22
    • 7.1.7 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 23
    • 7.1.8 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 24
    • 7.1.9 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 25
  • 7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018 26
  • 7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018 27
  • 7.4 Europe Region 28
    • 7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 28
    • 7.4.2 Europe - Risk Highlights 29
    • 7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region 31
    • 7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe 33
    • 7.4.5 Economic Outlook: Europe 35
    • 7.4.6 Social Outlook: Europe 37
    • 7.4.7 Technology Outlook: Europe Region 38
    • 7.4.8 Legal Outlook: Europe 39
    • 7.4.9 Environment Outlook: Europe Region 40
  • 7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018 41
  • 7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018 42
  • 7.7 Americas 43
    • 7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 43
    • 7.7.2 Americas - Risk Highlights 44
    • 7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas 46
    • 7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas 48
    • 7.7.5 Economic Outlook: Americas 50
    • 7.7.6 Social Outlook: Americas 51
    • 7.7.7 Technological Outlook: Americas 52
    • 7.7.8 Legal Outlook: Americas 53
    • 7.7.9 Environment Outlook: Americas 54
  • 7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018 55
  • 7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018 56
  • 7.10 Middle East and Africa 57
    • 7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 57
    • 7.10.2 Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 58
    • 7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa 60
    • 7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa 62
    • 7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa 64
    • 7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa 65
    • 7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa 66
    • 7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa 67
  • 7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q1 2018 68
  • 7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q1 2018 69

8 Methodology and Appendix 70

  • 8.1 Country Ranking and Scores 70
    • 8.1.1 Europe 70
    • 8.1.2 Americas 71
    • 8.1.3 Asia Pacific 72
    • 8.1.4 Middle East and Africa 73
  • 8.2 GCRI - Methodology and Sources 74
    • 8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology 74
    • 8.2.2 Secondary sources 75
  • 8.3 Contact Us 77
  • 8.4 Disclaimer 77

1.1 List of Tables

  • Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 16
  • Table 2: Key Economic Variables - Asia-Pacific 19
  • Table 3: Europe - Risk Highlights 30
  • Table 4: Key Economic Variables - Europe Region 34
  • Table 5: Americas - Risk Highlights 45
  • Table 6: Key Economic Variables - Americas 49
  • Table 7: Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 59
  • Table 8: Key Economic Variables 63
  • Table 9: GCRI - Methodology and Sources 76

1.2 List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Flashback (January to June 2018) 6
  • Figure 2: Key Events: July - December 2018 7
  • Figure 3: Global Growth and Inflation 8
  • Figure 4: Risk Movement Q1 2018 9
  • Figure 5: GCRI - Global Risk Heat Map 11
  • Figure 6: Global Risk Score - Q1 2018 12
  • Figure 7: Global Risk - At a Glance 13
  • Figure 8: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 14
  • Figure 9: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 15
  • Figure 10: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018 16
  • Figure 11: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 17
  • Figure 12: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 17
  • Figure 13: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
  • Figure 14: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 19
  • Figure 15: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Asean Nations 20
  • Figure 16: Key Regional Indices 21
  • Figure 17: China's Debt Reached 256% of GDP in 2017 21
  • Figure 18: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 22
  • Figure 19: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 22
  • Figure 20: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 23
  • Figure 21: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 23
  • Figure 22: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 24
  • Figure 23: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 24
  • Figure 24: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 25
  • Figure 25: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 25
  • Figure 26: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 28
  • Figure 27: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 29
  • Figure 28: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018 30
  • Figure 29: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe 31
  • Figure 30: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe 31
  • Figure 31: Euro Sentiments Rises Across the EU 32
  • Figure 32: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe 33
  • Figure 33: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe 33
  • Figure 34: Market Sentiments in Euro Area 34
  • Figure 35: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key European Nation 35
  • Figure 36: Key Regional Indices 36
  • Figure 37: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Europe 37
  • Figure 38: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Europe 37
  • Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 38
  • Figure 40: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe 38
  • Figure 41: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe 39
  • Figure 42: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe 39
  • Figure 43: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe 40
  • Figure 44: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe 40
  • Figure 45: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 43
  • Figure 46: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 44
  • Figure 47: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018 45
  • Figure 48: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas 46
  • Figure 49: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas 46
  • Figure 50: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas 48
  • Figure 51: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas 48
  • Figure 52: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key American Nations 49
  • Figure 53: Key Regional Indices 50
  • Figure 54: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas 51
  • Figure 55: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas 51
  • Figure 56: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas 52
  • Figure 57: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas 52
  • Figure 58: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas 53
  • Figure 59: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas 53
  • Figure 60: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas 54
  • Figure 61: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas 54
  • Figure 62: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 57
  • Figure 63: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 58
  • Figure 64: Regional Risk Scores: Q1 2018 59
  • Figure 65: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA 60
  • Figure 66: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA 60
  • Figure 67: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA 62
  • Figure 68: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA 62
  • Figure 69: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Nations in MEA 63
  • Figure 70: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA 64
  • Figure 71: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA 64
  • Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA 65
  • Figure 73: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA 65
  • Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA 66
  • Figure 75: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA 66
  • Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA 67
  • Figure 77: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA 67
  • Figure 78: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe 70
  • Figure 79: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas 71
  • Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific 72
  • Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa 73
  • Figure 82: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index 75
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