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Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018

Published by GlobalData Product code 731816
Published Content info 79 Pages
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Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018
Published: October 22, 2018 Content info: 79 Pages
Description

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

  • Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. The Philippines, Bhutan and Turkmenistan registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in japan, Malaysia and Indonesia increased in Q2 2018 over the last update.
  • Europe is the lowest risk region in the world. Risk score in the region marginally increased to 32.8 out of 100 in Q2 2018 from 32.7 in Q1 2018 on the back of rising political and economic tensions. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Moldova, Bulgaria and Ukraine whereas overall risk increased in Cyprus, Bosnia, and Croatia in GCRI Q2 2018 update.
  • The risk score of the Americas increased marginally to 42.7 out of 100 in Q2 2018 as compared to 42.6 in Q1 2018. Panama, Uruguay and Bolivia recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in Costa Rica and Argentina increased in Q2 2018
  • The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q2 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risks. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Kuwait, Qatar and Senegal whereas overall risk increased in Egypt, Oman, and Bahrain in GCRI Q2 2018 update.

Reasons to buy

  • The sixth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Norway.
  • 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 35 countries in the low risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q2 2018.
Table of Contents
Product Code: GDER0006CHR

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 2

  • 1.1 List of Tables 4
  • 1.2 List of Figures 4

2 Flashback (January to September 2018) 6

3 Key Events: October - December 2018 7

4 Global Overview - Summary 8

  • 4.1 Global growth expected to moderate in 2019 8
  • 4.2 Global Overview - Key Highlights 10

5 GCRI - Country Ranking 12

6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018 14

7 Regional Analysis 15

  • 7.1 Asia Pacific 15
    • 7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 15
    • 7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 16
    • 7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 18
    • 7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 19
    • 7.1.5 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific 21
    • 7.1.6 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 23
    • 7.1.7 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 24
    • 7.1.8 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 25
    • 7.1.9 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 26
  • 7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 27
  • 7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 28
  • 7.4 Europe Region 29
    • 7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 29
    • 7.4.2 Europe - Risk Highlights 30
    • 7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region 32
    • 7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe 34
    • 7.4.5 Social Outlook: Europe 38
    • 7.4.6 Technology Outlook: Europe Region 39
    • 7.4.7 Legal Outlook: Europe 40
    • 7.4.8 Environment Outlook: Europe Region 41
  • 7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 42
  • 7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 43
  • 7.7 Americas 44
    • 7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 44
    • 7.7.2 Americas - Risk Highlights 45
    • 7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas 47
    • 7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas 49
    • 7.7.5 Economic Outlook: Americas 51
    • 7.7.6 Social Outlook: Americas 53
    • 7.7.7 Technological Outlook: Americas 54
    • 7.7.8 Legal Outlook: Americas 55
    • 7.7.9 Environment Outlook: Americas 56
  • 7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 57
  • 7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 58
  • 7.10 Middle East and Africa 59
    • 7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 59
    • 7.10.2 Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 60
    • 7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa 62
    • 7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa 64
    • 7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa 66
    • 7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa 67
    • 7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa 68
    • 7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa 69
  • 7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 70
  • 7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 71

8 Methodology and Appendix 72

  • 8.1 Country Ranking and Scores 72
    • 8.1.1 Europe 72
    • 8.1.2 Americas 73
    • 8.1.3 Asia Pacific 74
    • 8.1.4 Middle East and Africa 75
  • 8.2 GCRI - Methodology and Sources 76
    • 8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology 76
    • 8.2.2 Secondary sources 77
  • 8.3 Contact Us 79
  • 8.4 Disclaimer 79

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 17
  • Table 2: Key Economic Variables - Asia-Pacific 21
  • Table 3: Europe - Risk Highlights 31
  • Table 4: Key Economic Variables - Europe Region 35
  • Table 5: Americas - Risk Highlights 46
  • Table 6: Key Economic Variables - Americas 50
  • Table 7: Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 61
  • Table 8: Key Economic Variables 65
  • Table 9: GCRI - Methodology and Sources 78

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Flashback (January to September 2018) 6
  • Figure 2: Key Events: October - December 2018 7
  • Figure 3: Global Growth and Inflation 8
  • Figure 4: Risk movement Q4 2016 to Q2 2018 9
  • Figure 5: GCRI - Global Risk Heat Map 12
  • Figure 6: Global Risk Score - Q2 2018 13
  • Figure 7: Global Risk - At a Glance 14
  • Figure 8: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 15
  • Figure 9: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 16
  • Figure 10: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 17
  • Figure 11: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
  • Figure 12: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific 18
  • Figure 13: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 19
  • Figure 14: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific 20
  • Figure 15: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Asia-Pacific Nations 21
  • Figure 16: Key Regional Indices 22
  • Figure 17: China's Debt Reached 261.2% of GDP in Q1 2018 22
  • Figure 18: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 23
  • Figure 19: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific 23
  • Figure 20: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 24
  • Figure 21: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific 24
  • Figure 22: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 25
  • Figure 23: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific 25
  • Figure 24: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 26
  • Figure 25: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific 26
  • Figure 26: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 29
  • Figure 27: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 30
  • Figure 28: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 31
  • Figure 29: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe 32
  • Figure 30: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe 32
  • Figure 31: Euro Sentiments In Europe, May 2018 33
  • Figure 32: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe 34
  • Figure 33: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe 34
  • Figure 34: Market Sentiments in Euro Area 35
  • Figure 35: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key European Nation 36
  • Figure 36: Key Regional Indices 36
  • Figure 37: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Europe 38
  • Figure 38: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Europe 38
  • Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe 39
  • Figure 40: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe 39
  • Figure 41: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe 40
  • Figure 42: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe 40
  • Figure 43: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe 41
  • Figure 44: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe 41
  • Figure 45: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 44
  • Figure 46: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018 45
  • Figure 47: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 46
  • Figure 48: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas 47
  • Figure 49: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas 47
  • Figure 50: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas 49
  • Figure 51: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas 49
  • Figure 52: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key American Nations 50
  • Figure 53: Key Regional Indices 52
  • Figure 54: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas 53
  • Figure 55: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas 53
  • Figure 56: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas 54
  • Figure 57: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas 54
  • Figure 58: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas 55
  • Figure 59: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas 55
  • Figure 60: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas 56
  • Figure 61: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas 56
  • Figure 62: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 59
  • Figure 63: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017 60
  • Figure 64: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018 61
  • Figure 65: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA 62
  • Figure 66: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA 62
  • Figure 67: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA 64
  • Figure 68: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA 64
  • Figure 69: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Nations in MEA 65
  • Figure 70: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA 66
  • Figure 71: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA 66
  • Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA 67
  • Figure 73: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA 67
  • Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA 68
  • Figure 75: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA 68
  • Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA 69
  • Figure 77: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA 69
  • Figure 78: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe 72
  • Figure 79: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas 73
  • Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific 74
  • Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa 75
  • Figure 82: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index 77
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