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Market Research Report

The Polish Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

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The Polish Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024
Published: October 21, 2019 Content info: 143 Pages
Description

Polish defense expenditure is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.89% during the forecast period, with a cumulative spending of US$71.7 billion. With one of the fastest growing markets and a high-income economy, Poland aims to accelerate the modernization rate of its Armed Forces in the coming years. Poland like most of the other European countries increased its expenditure on armed forces at a CAGR of 10.82% in terms of local currency, making it one of the largest and the fastest growing defense markets in Central Europe.

Over 2015-2019, Poland's average capital expenditure allocation was 30.9% of the total defense budget, while its revenue expenditure allocation was 69.1%. The country's military hardware upgrade strategies, as outlined in the 'Modernization Plan for the Armed Forces in the Years 2015-2024' are expected to be upgraded by 2024, owing to which the average capital allocation is expected to increase to an average of 35% over the forecast period. Poland's modernization initiatives over the next 10 years are anticipated to register an increase in the demand for aircraft, helicopters, submarines, patrol crafts, coastal defense ships, missiles, radars, surveillance and unmanned aerial vehicles.

Poland's homeland security (HLS) expenditure is mainly focused on countering random acts of terrorism, foreign espionage, drug smuggling, human trafficking, organized crime, corruption and cyber-attacks. This is primarily due to the growing instances of criminal and illicit activities within the nation. The HLS expenditure, valued at US$4 billion in 2019, increased at a CAGR of 1.95% between 2015 and 2019. Over the forecast period, the budget is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2% and reach US$4.4 billion by 2024.

Poland continues to expand its arms exports to Algeria and European countries like Germany and Lithuania. Although Germany emerged as the biggest arms supplier over 2014-2018, Poland had relied largely on the US for its procurement of advanced arms and ammunitions in the past. However, the benefits of having multiple import partners have encouraged Poland to procure weaponry from other European countries as well, including Finland, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, France and the UK, Ukraine, Israel and Canada among others, a trend that is expected to continue over the forecast period.

The report "The Future of the Polish Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024" provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news. This report offers detailed analysis of the Poland's defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

  • The Poland's defense industry market size and drivers - detailed analysis of the Poland's defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges - insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to the army, navy, and air force. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the Poland's defense industry - analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics - analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Poland's defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Companies mentioned - BAE Systems, The Boeing Company (Boeing), Lockheed Martin Corporation (Lockheed Martin), CAE Inc, Sikorsky, Leonardo S.p.A, Polish Defense Holding (PHO), Polskie Zakrady Lotnicze Mielec (PZL Mielec), Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA (WZU), Huta Stalowa Wola SA (HSW), ROSOMAK S.A.

Scope:

  • With one of the fastest growing markets and a high-income economy, Poland aims to accelerate the modernization rate of its Armed Forces in the coming years. Poland like most of the other European countries increased its expenditure on armed forces at a CAGR of 10.82% in terms of local currency, making it one of the largest and the fastest growing defense markets in Central Europe. Over 2015-2019, Poland's average capital expenditure allocation was 30.9% of the total defense budget, while its revenue expenditure allocation was 69.1%. The country's military hardware upgrade strategies, as outlined in the 'Modernization Plan for the Armed Forces in the Years 2015-2024' are expected to be upgraded by 2024, owing to which the average capital allocation is expected to increase to an average of 35% over the forecast period.
  • On a cumulative basis, the country is expected to invest US$71.7 billion for defense purposes, of which US$25.3 billion is earmarked for capital expenditure to fund defense procurements. - The government's well-defined military modernization plans are expected to stimulate the expenditure over the next few years The MoD is expected to invest in land based C4ISR, Missile Defense System, Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFV), surface to air missiles, helicopters, cryptographic tools & encryption, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV), SIGINT aircraft, self-propeleld artillery systems and submarines among others.

Reasons to buy:

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Polish defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Polish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
Table of Contents
Product Code: GDDF0596MR

Table of Contents

  • LIST OF FIGURES
  • LIST OF TABLES

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About GlobalData

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Current Market Scenario
    • 3.1.1. Primary threat perception
    • 3.1.2. Military Doctrine & Strategy
    • 3.1.3. Procurement Programs
  • Ongoing procurement programs
  • Future procurement programs
  • Top Procurement Programs By Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
    • 3.1.4. Geopolitical, Social and Economic Scenario
    • 3.1.5. Political & Strategic Alliances
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
    • 3.2.1. Polish defense expenditure is expected to reach US$15.9 billion by 2024
    • 3.2.2. The Ukrainian crisis, military modernization initiatives and peacekeeping missions to fuel defense expenditure over the forecast period
    • 3.2.3. Polish defense budget to average at 1.96% of GDP over 2020-2024
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation expected to increase during the forecast period
    • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 15.06% over 2020-2024
    • 3.3.3. The majority of the defense budget is allocated to military intelligence services and crisis response operations, which are anticipated to increase over the forecast period
    • 3.3.4. 'Others' segment to continue accounting for the largest share of the Polish defense budget
    • 3.3.5. Per capita defense expenditure is expected to increase during the forecast period
  • 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
    • 3.4.1. Polish homeland security market to increase at a CAGR of 2% over the forecast period
    • 3.4.2. Homeland security expenditure to be triggered by the country's efforts to counter drug smuggling, human trafficking and cyber attacks
  • 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.5.1. Poland's defense growth rate is expected to remain modest over the forecast period
    • 3.5.2. Poland's defense spending is low compared to other European nations
    • 3.5.3. Poland allocates the expected NATO share of GDP for defense expenditure
  • 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.6.1. Top Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2019-2024
    • 3.6.2. C4ISR-Land Based
    • 3.6.3. Missile Defense System
    • 3.6.4. Infantry Fighting Vehicle (IFV)

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. Defense imports fluctuated during the period 2014-2018
    • 4.1.2. Poland sourced the majority of its arms imports from Germany
    • 4.1.3. Missiles and armored vehicles are the major military hardware imports
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. Polish defense exports expected to increase over the forecast period
    • 4.2.2. Poland exports the majority of its defense goods to Algeria
    • 4.2.3. Aircraft and missiles constitute Polish defense exports

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: medium
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: medium
    • 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
    • 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Market Regulation
    • 6.1.1. Polish government introduces new Offset Act for defense equipment procurements
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
    • 6.2.1. Budgeting Process
    • 6.2.2. Procurement Policy & Process
    • 6.2.3. Joint ventures and acquisitions of domestic companies are the preferred entry routes
    • 6.2.4. Foreign OEMs gain industry access through joint research and development programs
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
    • 6.3.1. Dominance of EU defense companies impede the progress of non-European firms
    • 6.3.2. Lack of transparency in the public procurement process proves a major challenge

7. Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights

  • 7.1. Competitive landscape Overview
    • 7.1.1. Poland Market Share Analysis, 2018
  • 7.2. Key Foreign Companies
    • 7.2.1. BAE Systems: overview
    • 7.2.2. BAE Systems: main products and services
    • 7.2.3. BAE Systems: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.4. BAE Systems: alliances
    • 7.2.5. BAE Systems: recent contract wins
    • 7.2.6. BAE Systems: financial analysis
    • 7.2.7. The Boeing Company: overview
    • 7.2.8. The Boeing Company: main products
    • 7.2.9. The Boeing Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.10. The Boeing Company: alliances
    • 7.2.11. Boeing: financial analysis
    • 7.2.12. Lockheed Martin: overview
    • 7.2.13. Lockheed Martin: main products and services
    • 7.2.14. Lockheed Martin: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.15. Lockheed Martin: alliances
    • 7.2.16. Lockheed Martin: recent contract wins
    • 7.2.17. Lockheed Martin Corp.: financial analysis
    • 7.2.18. CAE: overview
    • 7.2.19. CAE: main products and services
    • 7.2.20. CAE Inc.: alliances
    • 7.2.21. CAE Inc.: recent contract wins
    • 7.2.22. CAE Inc.: financial analysis
    • 7.2.23. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: overview
    • 7.2.24. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: main products and services
    • 7.2.25. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.26. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: alliances
    • 7.2.27. Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins
    • 7.2.28. Leonardo S.p.A.: overview
    • 7.2.29. Leonardo S.p.A.: main products and services
    • 7.2.30. Leonardo S.p.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.2.31. Leonardo S.p.A.: alliances
    • 7.2.32. Leonardo S.p.A.: recent contract wins
    • 7.2.33. Leonardo S.p.A.: financial analysis
  • 7.3. Key Public Companies
    • 7.3.1. Polish Defense Holding: overview
    • 7.3.2. Polish Defense Holding: main products
    • 7.3.3. Polish Defense Holding: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.3.4. Polish Defense Holding: alliances
    • 7.3.5. Polish Defense Holding: recent contract wins
    • 7.3.6. PZL Mielec: overview
    • 7.3.7. PZL Mielec: products
    • 7.3.8. PZL Mielec: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.3.9. PZL Mielec: alliances
    • 7.3.10. PZL Mielec: recent contract wins
    • 7.3.11. Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA: overview
    • 7.3.12. Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA: main products and services
    • 7.3.13. Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.3.14. Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA: alliances
    • 7.3.15. Huta Stalowa Wola: overview
    • 7.3.16. Huta Stalowa Wola: main products and services
    • 7.3.17. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.3.18. Huta Stalowa Wola: alliances
    • 7.3.19. Huta Stalowa Wola: recent contract wins
    • 7.3.20. ROSOMAK S.A.: overview
    • 7.3.21. ROSOMAK S.A.: main products and services
    • 7.3.22. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent announcements and strategic initiatives
    • 7.3.23. ROSOMAK S.A.: recent contract wins

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Economic Performance
    • 8.1.1. GDP Per Capita
    • 8.1.2. GDP, Current Prices
    • 8.1.3. Exports of goods and services, current prices
    • 8.1.4. Imports of goods and services, current prices
    • 8.1.5. Gross National disposable income (US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.6. Local Currency Unit per US Dollar
    • 8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies
    • 8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.9. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.10. Goods exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.11. Goods imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.12. Service Imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.13. Service Exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.14. Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP
    • 8.1.16. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About GlobalData
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Polish Ongoing Procurement Programs
  • Table 2: Polish Future Procurement Programs
  • Table 3: Top Polish Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
  • Table 4: Polish Defense Cooperation
  • Table 5: Polish Military Training Exercises
  • Table 6: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 7: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
  • Table 8: Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2015-2024
  • Table 9: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 10: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share), 2015-2024
  • Table 11: Polish Defense Budget in PLN Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Table 12: Polish Defense Budget in US$ Million - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Table 13: Polish Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
  • Table 14: Polish Homeland Security Expenditure (PLN Billion & US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 15: Benchmarking with Key Markets: 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024
  • Table 16: Top Polish Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2019-2024
  • Table 17: Polish Budget Formation Timetable:
  • Table 18: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies
  • Table 19: Top Defense Suppliers in Polish Defense Industry - By Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
  • Table 20: Competitive Landscape of the Polish Defense Industry
  • Table 21: BAE Systems, Main Products
  • Table 22: BAE Systems, Alliances
  • Table 23: BAE Systems - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 24: The Boeing Company, Main Products
  • Table 25: The Boeing Company, Alliances
  • Table 26: Lockheed Martin, Main Products
  • Table 27: Lockheed Martin, Alliances
  • Table 28: Lockheed Martin, Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 29: CAE, Main Products and Services
  • Table 30: CAE Inc., Alliances
  • Table 31: CAE, recent contract wins
  • Table 32: Sikorsky, a Lockheed martin Company Main Products and Services
  • Table 33: Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company Alliances
  • Table 34:Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin Company: recent contract wins
  • Table 35: Leonardo S.p.A., Main Products and Services
  • Table 36: Leonardo S.p.A., Alliances
  • Table 37: Leonardo S.p.A., Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 38: Polish Defense Holding, Major Products
  • Table 39: Polish Defense Holding, Alliances
  • Table 40: Polish Defense Holding, Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 41: PZL Mielec - Main Products
  • Table 42: PZL Mielec, Alliances
  • Table 43: PZL Mielec, Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 44: Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA, Main Products and Services
  • Table 45: Wojskowe Zakrady Uzbrojenia SA, Alliances
  • Table 46: Huta Stalowa Wola, Main Products and Services
  • Table 47: Huta Stalowa Wola, Alliances
  • Table 48: Huta Stalowa Wola, Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 49: ROSOMAK S.A.: Main Products and Services
  • Table 50: ROSOMAK SA., Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 : Polish Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
  • Figure 2 : Polish Defense Imports/Exports: 2014 and 2018
  • Figure 3 : Poland's Top Three Prospective Procurements/Developments
  • Figure 4: Polish National Security Threat
  • Figure 5: Poland's Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
  • Figure 6: Polish Defense Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 7: Polish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 8: Polish GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
  • Figure 9:Polish Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%),2015-2024
  • Figure 10: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (PLN Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 11: Polish Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 12: Polish Defense Expenditure Allocation (% Share) Breakdown by Defense Services, 2015-2024
  • Figure 13: Polish Defense Budget in PLN Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Figure 14: Polish Defense Budget in US$ Million - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Figure 15: Poland Per Capita Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
  • Figure 16: Polish Homeland Security Budget (PLN Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 17: Polish Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024
  • Figure 19: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
  • Figure 20: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019
  • Figure 21: Land Based C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 22: Missile Defense System Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 23: IFV Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 24: Polish Defense Procurements In Terms Of Their Supplier Relationships
  • Figure 25: Polish Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 26: Polish Defense Imports by Country (%),2014-2018
  • Figure 27: Polish Defense Imports by Category (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 28: Polish Defense Exports by Value (US$ Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 29: Polish Defense Exports by Country (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 30: Polish Defense Exports by Category (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 31: Industry Dynamics: Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 32: Key Challenges in Polish Defense Market
  • Figure 33: Poland Market Share Analysis, 2018
  • Figure 34: BAE Systems - Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 35: BAE Systems - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 36: BAE Systems - Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 37: Boeing - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 38: Boeing - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ milliom), 2014-2018
  • Figure 39: Boeing - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 40: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Revenue Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2014-2018
  • Figure 41: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017
  • Figure 42: Lockheed Martin Corp. - Net Profit Trend Analysis (US$ billion), 2013-2017
  • Figure 43: CAE Inc. - Revenue Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2015-2019
  • Figure 44: CAE Inc. - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2015-2019
  • Figure 45: CAE Inc.- Net Profit Trend Analysis (CAD Million), 2015-2019
  • Figure 46: Leonardo S.p.A. - Revenue Trend Analysis (EUR Billion), 2014-2018
  • Figure 47: Leonardo S.p.A.- Operating Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017
  • Figure 48: Leonardo S.p.A.Net Profit Trend Analysis (EUR Million), 2013-2017
  • Figure 49: Polish GDP Per Capita, 2015-2025
  • Figure 50: Polish GDP, Current Prices (In US$ Billions), 2015-2025
  • Figure 51: Polish Exports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014
  • Figure 52: Polish Imports of goods and services, current prices (LCU Billion), 2005- 2014
  • Figure 53: Polish Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005- 2012
  • Figure 54: Local Currency Unit per US$- Exchange Rate , 2015-2024
  • Figure 55: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
  • Figure 56: Polish Market Capitalization of Listed Companies as percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
  • Figure 57: Polish Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2012
  • Figure 58: Poland's Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 59: Poland's Goods Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 60: Poland's Service Imports as a percentage of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 61: Poland's Service Exports as % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 62: Poland's Foreign direct investment, net (BoP, current US$ Billion), 2005-2013
  • Figure 63: Poland's Net foreign direct investment as % of GDP, 2005-2013
  • Figure 64: Poland's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
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