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Market Research Report

Turkish Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

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Turkish Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024
Published: December 30, 2019 Content info: 141 Pages
Description

Turkish military expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 18.13% over the forecast period. Turkish military stands at US$14 billion in 2019, and registered a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.04% during the historic period. The country's strained relationship with Greece, persistent threats from the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK), active participation in peacekeeping missions, and the focus on the indigenization and Turkification of defense industry drove defense expenditure during the historic period.

With this trend expected to continue, expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 18.13% over the forecast period to value US$29.8 billion in 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the country's defense expenditure will average 2.2% over the forecast period compared to an average of 1.7% recorded during the historic period.

The capital expenditure allocation, which stood at an average of 33.9% during the historic period, is projected to increase to an average of 40.4% over the forecast period. This is primarily due to the procurement of advanced defense equipment and a focus on increasing the capabilities of the country's indigenous defense industry. Various procurements that are expected to fuel the growth of capital spending over the forecast period include multi-role aircraft, missile defense systems, corvettes, and main battle tanks (MBTs).

Turkish homeland security (HLS) expenditure stands at US$5.3 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach US$7.8 billion in 2024, registering a CAGR of 10.32% over the forecast period. Expenditure is driven by the threat of separatists and extremists, illegal immigration, drug trafficking and the country's dispute with Syria.

Aircraft accounted for the largest expenditure during 2014-2018, with the US being the largest supplier. Turkish defense imports were highest in 2014 and 2018. Turkey procured Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEW&C) aircraft and in 2014 acquired 737-700 Peace Eagle Aircraft. Other significant import partners include South Korea, Spain, and Italy. Sensors, artillery, missiles, engines, naval vessels, naval weapons, armored vehicles and satellites were other key imports during 2014-2018. Similarly, arms exports recorded a gradual increase during the historic period and armored vehicles accounted for the majority of defense exports, with UAE topping the list of defense exporters during 2014-2018.

The report "Turkish Defense Industry - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024" provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news. This report offers detailed analysis of the Turkish defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular the report "Turkish Defense Industry - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024" provides an in-depth analysis of the following:

  • The Turkish defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Turkish defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: list of the top ten defense investment opportunities over the next 5 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Turkish defense industry

Companies Mentioned: Lockheed Martin, Lockheed Sikorsky, Korean Aerospace Industries, Boeing (McDonnell Douglas), Samsung Techwin, Hyundai Rotem, Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW)- Thyssenkrupp Marine Systems, BAE, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Otokar,, Roketsan, Makina ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu (MKEK), Aselsan, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI), Havelsan, Tusas Engine Industries (TEI), FNSS Defense, Systems Company, Istanbul Shipyard

Scope

  • Turkish defense expenditure stands at US$14 billion in 2019, and registered a compound annual growth rate CAGR of 4.04% during the historic period.
  • The country's strained relationship with Greece, persistent threats from the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK), active participation in peacekeeping missions, and the reduction in foreign dependency for military equipment procurement, drove defense expenditure during the historic period.
  • With this trend expected to continue, expenditure is anticipated to register a CAGR of 18.13% over the forecast period to value US$29.8 billion in 2024. As a percentage of GDP, the country's defense expenditure will average 2.22% over the forecast period, which is marginally declining compared to an average of 1.70% recorded during the historic period.

Reasons to buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Turkish defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers . This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Turkish defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Key Trends , and latest industry contracts
Table of Contents
Product Code: GDDF0611MR

Table of Contents

  • LIST OF FIGURES
  • LIST OF TABLES

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About GlobalData

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Current Market Conditions
    • 3.1.1. Primary threat perception
    • 3.1.2. Military doctrine and strategy
    • 3.1.3. Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.3.1. Ongoing procurement programs
    • 3.1.3.2. Future procurement programs
    • 3.1.3.3. Top Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
    • 3.1.4. Geopolitical, Social and economic scenario
    • 3.1.5. Political and strategic alliances
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
    • 3.2.1. Turkey defense expenditure expected to grow during the forecast period
    • 3.2.2. Turkish defense expenditure to rise over the forecast period
    • 3.2.3. Military expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decline over the forecast period
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.3.1. Share of capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period
    • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period
    • 3.3.3. Key Trends in Turkish defense market
    • 3.3.4. Per capita defense expenditure to rise over the forecast period
  • 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
    • 3.4.1. Homeland security (HLS) expenditure expected to grow over the forecast period
    • 3.4.2. Threats driving homeland security expenditure
  • 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.5.1. Turkish defense expenditure expected to remain low compared to leading spenders
    • 3.5.2. The country's defense budget is high compared to its regional countries
    • 3.5.3. Turkey defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease
  • 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.6.1. Top Defense Market Categories by Value (US$ million) - Forecast-Period Projections
    • 3.6.2. Physical Security
    • 3.6.3. Multirole Aircraft
    • 3.6.4. Main Battle Tank

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. Defense imports expected to decrease over the forecast period
    • 4.1.2. The US was the primary supplier of arms to Turkey
    • 4.1.3. Aircraft were the major imported military hardware during 2014-2018
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. Turkey aims to increase defense exports over the forecast period
    • 4.2.2. UAE emerged as the largest importer of Turkish defense equipment during the period 2014-2018
    • 4.2.3. Armored Vehicles accounted for the majority of defense exports during 2014-2018

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining power of supplier: low
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining power of buyer: high
    • 5.1.3. Barrier to entry: medium
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of rivalry: high
    • 5.1.5. Threat of substitution: high

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Market Regulation
    • 6.1.1. The Turkish government encourages offsets to develop the country's domestic industrial defense base
  • 6.2. Market Entry Route
    • 6.2.1. Budgeting Process
    • 6.2.2. Procurement policy and process
    • 6.2.3. Joint venture provides market entry opportunity for foreign OEMs
    • 6.2.4. Joint research and development programs provide foreign OEMs with an opportunity for market entry
  • 6.3. Key Challenges
    • 6.3.1. Corruption poses a challenge to the success of defense deals
    • 6.3.2. The completion of military modernization plans, project delays, and cost escalation to limit new projects
    • 6.3.3. Devaluation of Turkish Lira in relation to US Dollar

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Economic Performance
    • 8.1.1. GDP per capita
    • 8.1.2. GDP, current prices
    • 8.1.3. Export of goods and services (LCU Billion)
    • 8.1.4. Import of goods and services (LCU Billion)
    • 8.1.5. Gross national disposable income (US$ Billion)
    • 8.1.6. Local currency unit per US$
    • 8.1.7. Market capitalization of listed companies
    • 8.1.8. Market capitalization of listed companies as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.9. Government cash surplus deficit as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.10. Goods Exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.11. Good imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.12. Service imports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.13. Service exports as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.14. Foreign direct investments
    • 8.1.15. Net foreign direct investment as a percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.16. Mining, manufacturing, and utilities output

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About GlobalData
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Turkey - Ongoing Procurement Programs
  • Table 2: Turkish Future Procurement Programs
  • Table 3:Turkey - Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Table 4: Turkish Defense Cooperation
  • Table 5: Turkish Military Training Exercises
  • Table 6: Turkey - Defense Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 7: Turkey - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024
  • Table 8: Turkey - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
  • Table 9: Turkey - Defense Capital Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 10: Turkey - Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
  • Table 11: Turkey - Homeland Security Expenditure (TRY Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 12: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
  • Table 13: Turkey - Top Leading Defense Market Categories by Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Table 14: Turkey - Offset Regulations (%)
  • Table 15: Turkey - Technological Cooperation, Investment, and R&D Multiplier Provision
  • Table 16: Multipliers for Export Related Systems
  • Table 17: Turkey - Budget Formation Timetable, 2017
  • Table 18: Turkey - Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies
  • Table 19: Turkey - Market Entry by Key Foreign Companies
  • Table 20: Top Defense Suppliers in the Turkish Defense Industry By Value (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Table 21: Turkey - Competitive Landscape of Defense Industry, 2019
  • Table 22: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) - Main Products
  • Table 23: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft - Alliances
  • Table 24: Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW) - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 25: Lockheed Martin - Main Products
  • Table 26: Lockheed Martin - Alliances
  • Table 27: Lockheed Martin - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 28: BAE Systems - Main Products
  • Table 29: BAE Systems - Alliances
  • Table 30: BAE Systems - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 31: Otokar - Main Products
  • Table 32: Otokar - Alliances
  • Table 33: Otokar - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 34: Roketsan - Main Products and Services
  • Table 35: Roketsan - Alliances
  • Table 36: Roketsan - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 37: Makina ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu (MKEK) - Main Products
  • Table 38: Makina ve Kimya Endustrisi Kurumu (MKEK) - Alliances
  • Table 39: Aselsan - Main Products
  • Table 40: Aselsan - Alliances
  • Table 41: Aselsan - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 42: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) - Main Products
  • Table 43: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) - Alliances
  • Table 44: Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 45: Havelsan - Main Products
  • Table 46: Havelsan - Alliances
  • Table 47: Havelsan - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 48: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Main Products
  • Table 49: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Alliances
  • Table 50: Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 51: FNSS Defense Systems Co - Main Products
  • Table 52:Tusas Engine Industries, Inc. (TEI) - Alliances
  • Table 53: FNSS Defense Systems Co - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 54: Istanbul Shipyard - Main Products
  • Table 55 Istanbul Shipyard - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

  • Figure 1: Turkish Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
  • Figure 2: Turkish Defense Imports: 2014 and 2018
  • Figure 3: Turkey's Top Three Prospective Procurements/Developments
  • Figure 4: Turkey's Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
  • Figure 5: Turkey - Defense Expenditure (TRY Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 6: Turkish Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 7: Turkey - GDP Growth vs Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015-2024
  • Figure 8: Turkey - Defense Budget Split by Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
  • Figure 9: Turkey - Defense Capital Expenditure (TRY Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 10: Turkey - Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 11: Turkish Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
  • Figure 12: Turkey - Homeland Security Budget (TRY Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 13: Turkish Homeland Security Budget (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 14: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs 2020-2024
  • Figure 15: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
  • Figure 16: Defense Expenditure According to Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019
  • Figure 17: Turkey - Physical Security Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 18: Turkey - Multirole Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 19: Turkey - Main Battle Tank Market Size (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 20: Turkey - Defense Imports Trend (US$ Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 21: Turkey - Defense Imports by Country (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 22: Turkey - Defense Imports by Category (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 23: Turkey - Defense Exports Trend, 2014-2018
  • Figure 24: Turkey - Defense Exports by Country (US$ Million), 2014-2018
  • Figure 25: Turkey - Defense Exports by Category (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 26: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 27: Turkish Market Challenges
  • Figure 28: Turkish Market Share Analysis, 2019-2024
  • Figure 29: Lockheed Martin - Revenue Trend Analysis (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 30: Lockheed Martin - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 31: Lockheed Martin - Net Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 32: BAE Systems - Revenue Trend Analysis (GBP Billion / %), 2014-2018
  • Figure 33: BAE Systems - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion / %), 2014-2018
  • Figure 34: BAE Systems - Net Profit Trend Analysis (GBP Billion / %), 2014-2018
  • Figure 35: Otokar - Revenue Trend Analysis, FY2014-2018
  • Figure 36: Otokar - Operating Profit Trend Analysis, FY2014-2018
  • Figure 37: Otokar - Net Profit Trend Analysis, FY2014-2018
  • Figure 38: Aselsan - Revenue Trend Analysis (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 39: Aselsan - Operating Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 40: Aselsan - Net Profit Trend Analysis (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 41: Turkey - GDP Per Capita (US$), 2015-2025
  • Figure 42: Turkey - GDP Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
  • Figure 43: Turkey - Export of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 44: Turkey - Import of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 45: Turkey - Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
  • Figure 46: Turkey - LCU per US$, 2015-2024
  • Figure 47: Turkey - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005-2012
  • Figure 48: Turkey - Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (Percentage of GDP), 2005-2012
  • Figure 49: Turkey - Cash Surplus Deficit as (Percentage of GDP), 2008-2012
  • Figure 50: Turkey - Good Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 51: Turkey - Good Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 52: Turkey - Service Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 53: Turkey - Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 54: Turkey - Foreign Direct Investments (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005-2014
  • Figure 55: Turkey - Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 56: Turkey - Mining, Manufacturing, and Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005-2014
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