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Market Research Report

Norwegian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

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Norwegian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024
Published: December 30, 2019 Content info: 133 Pages
Description

Norwegian military expenditure is projected to reach US$8.3 billion in 2024 with an expected CAGR of 4.67% over the forecast period. Norway aims to develop a strong and modern defense force that is capable of addressing national threats and contributing effectively to allied and international operations regarding security and peace, post the financial crisis. The country is a part of NORDEFCO (Nordic Defence Cooperation), which was established in 2009 and aims to strengthen the region's defense capabilities through cost-effective collaborations.

The Norwegian military capital expenditure is forecasted to increase from US$2.7 billion in 2020 to US$3.5 billion in 2024, at a compounded annual growth rate of 6.67%. The Norwegian Defense Ministry is expected to procure military fighter aircraft, search and rescue helicopters armored vehicles, main battle tanks, cyber security, radars, ammunition sensor systems and UAVs. The Revenue expenditure is forecasted to increase from US$4.3 billion in 2020 to US$4.9 billion in 2024, attributed to additional training and development programs that are undertaken over the forecast period.

Norwegian homeland security expenditure to be US$5.2 billion by 2024. Norwegian homeland security expenditure (HLS) stands at US$4.7 billion in 2019, reflecting a CAGR of 1.76% over 2015-2019. Over the forecast period, the budget is expected to grow from US$5.4 billion in 2020 to US$8.9 billion in 2024, driven by the government's efforts to curb the continuing problems of terrorism and cyber-crimes. The country is anticipated to spend significantly on cyber security, surveillance systems, airport security, biometric systems, video-surveillance systems, training, and cyber security software during the forecast period.

Norwegian defense imports and exports are expected to increase over the forecast period. Overall defense imports were high between 2014 and 2018, and are expected to further accelerate during the forecast period due to the modernization and procurement plans of the Norwegian MoD. European countries such as France, Germany, Italy, and the UK are expected to remain the key suppliers during the forecast period. During the forecast period, the country's defense exports are expected to grow significantly as a result of expansion into Thailand, Singapore, and South Africa, in which, demand for defense equipment is expected to be strong. Furthermore, new collaboration programs with foreign OEMs are expected to drive Norwegian defense exports over the forecast period.

The report "Norwegian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024" provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news. This report offers detailed analysis of the Norwegian defense industry with market size forecasts covering the next five years. This report will also analyze factors that influence demand for the industry, key market trends, and challenges faced by industry participants.

In particular the report "Norwegian Defense Market - Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024" provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

  • The Norwegian defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Norwegian defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country's expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter's Five Force analysis of the Norwegian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country's imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities over the next 10 years
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Norwegian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis

Companies Mentioned: Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace AS, Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt (FFI), NAMMO AS (Nordic Ammunition Group), Kitron, Thales Norway AS, Umoe Mandal, Eidsvoll Electronics AS (Eidel)

Scope

  • Norway's total defense expenditure values US$6.8 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US$6.7 billion by 2024. This can be attributed to military modernization initiatives and training programs that are expected to be executed during the forecast period. A considerable portion of the budget is anticipated to be directed towards the procurement of military aircraft such as the F-35 fighter aircraft, the Norwegian All Weather Search and Rescue Helicopter (NAWSARH) program, maritime patrol aircraft, Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missiles (AMRAAM), the soldier modernization program, cyber security, and the purchase of military tactical trucks. In addition, the defense budget is expected to be driven by the country's participation in peacekeeping initiatives.
  • Norwegian defense capital expenditure is expected to increase from US$2.7 billion in 2020 to US$3.5 billion in 2024, growing at a CAGR of 6.67%. The Norwegian Defense Ministry is expected to procure multirole fighter aircraft, search and rescue helicopters, armored vehicles, main battle tanks, cyber security, a joint strike missile (JSM) system, and submarines. Revenue expenditure is expected to increase from US$4.3 billion in 2020 to US$4.9 billion in 2024, attributed to additional training and development programs that are to be undertaken over the forecast period.
  • Norwegian homeland security expenditure (HLS) stands at US$4.7 billion in 2019, reflecting a CAGR of 1.76% over 2015-2019. Over the forecast period, the budget is expected to grow from US$5.4 billion in 2020 to US$8.9 billion in 2024, driven by the government's efforts to curb the continuing problems of terrorism and cyber-crimes. The country is anticipated to spend significantly on cyber security, surveillance systems, airport security, biometric systems, video-surveillance systems, training, and cyber security software during the forecast period.

Reasons to buy

  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Norwegian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Norwegian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter's Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts
Table of Contents
Product Code: GDDF0613MR

Table of Contents

  • LIST OF FIGURES
  • LIST OF TABLES

1. Introduction

  • 1.1. What is this Report About?
  • 1.2. Definitions
  • 1.3. Summary Methodology
  • 1.4. About GlobalData

2. Executive Summary

3. Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities

  • 3.1. Current Market Scenario
    • 3.1.1. Primary Threat Perception
    • 3.1.2. Military Doctrine and Strategy
    • 3.1.3. Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.4. Ongoing Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.5. Future Procurement Programs
    • 3.1.6. Top Procurement Programs By Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
    • 3.1.7. Geopolitical, Social and Economic Scenario
    • 3.1.8. Political and Strategic Alliances
  • 3.2. Defense Market Size, Historical and Forecast
    • 3.2.1. Norwegian defense budget will grow at a CAGR of 4.67% over 2020-2024
    • 3.2.2. Modernizing the armed forces, participating in international peacekeeping operations, and an interest in the Arctic region are the main factors driving the Norwegian defense industry
    • 3.2.3. Defense expenditure as a percentage of GDP is expected to average 1.75% during the forecast period
  • 3.3. Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
    • 3.3.1. Capital expenditure allocation is expected to increase over the forecast period
    • 3.3.2. Capital expenditure to increase at a CAGR of 6.67% over 2020-2024
    • 3.3.3. Key Trends in Norwegian defense market
    • 3.3.4. Expenditure on the 'Others' segment expected to be the largest during the forecast period
    • 3.3.5. 'Others' segment to continue accounting for the largest share of the Norwegian defense budget
    • 3.3.6. Per capita defense expenditure set to increase over the forecast period
  • 3.4. Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
    • 3.4.1. Norwegian homeland security expenditure is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.48% over the forecast period
    • 3.4.2. Counter-terrorism and enhanced cyber security are expected to drive homeland security expenditure
  • 3.5. Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
    • 3.5.1. Norwegian defense budget expenditure expected to increase over the forecast period
    • 3.5.2. Norway has one of the fastest-growing defense industries in Europe
    • 3.5.3. Norwegian defense budget as a percentage of GDP is expected to grow over the forecast period
  • 3.6. Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Growth Stimulators
    • 3.6.1. Top ten Defense market sectors by value (US$ Million) - Projections over period 2019-2024
    • 3.6.2. Fighters and Multirole aircraft
    • 3.6.3. Land-based C4ISR
    • 3.6.4. Physical Security

4. Defense Procurement Market Dynamics

  • 4.1. Import Market Dynamics
    • 4.1.1. Norwegian defense imports are expected to increase over the forecast period
    • 4.1.2. US is the largest arms supplier to Norway
    • 4.1.3. Aircraft accounted for the largest percentage share of overall defense imports
  • 4.2. Export Market Dynamics
    • 4.2.1. Norway was among the top 20 countries with the highest volume of defense exports
    • 4.2.2. Exports to European countries are expected to increase over the forecast period
    • 4.2.3. The air defense systems category accounted for the majority of Norway's defense exports during 2014-2018

5. Industry Dynamics

  • 5.1. Five Forces Analysis
    • 5.1.1. Bargaining Power of Supplier: Low
    • 5.1.2. Bargaining Power of Buyer: High
    • 5.1.3. Barrier to Entry: Medium
    • 5.1.4. Intensity of Rivalry: High
    • 5.1.5. Threat of Substitution: High

6. Market Entry Strategy

  • 6.1. Budgeting Process
  • 6.2. Procurement Policy and Process
  • 6.3. Market Regulation
    • 6.3.1. The Norwegian defense industry is largely driven by government regulation and offset policy
    • 6.3.2. The Norwegian government supports FDI
  • 6.4. Market Entry Route
    • 6.4.1. Entry through Joint Development Programs
    • 6.4.2. Foreign Military Sales (FMS) to Norway
    • 6.4.3. Collaborations provide market entry opportunities
  • 6.5. Key Challenges
    • 6.5.1. The Norwegian government prefers Scandinavian and European countries for defense trade
    • 6.5.2. The Norwegian export policy poses a challenge for domestic defense companies

7. Competitive Landscape and Strategic Insights

8. Business Environment and Country Risk

  • 8.1. Economic Performance
    • 8.1.1. GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices
    • 8.1.2. GDP at Current Prices (US$)
    • 8.1.3. Exports of Goods and Services (current LCU Bn)
    • 8.1.4. Imports of Goods and Services (current LCU bn)
    • 8.1.5. Gross National Disposable Income (US$ billion)
    • 8.1.6. LCU per US$
    • 8.1.7. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ billion)
    • 8.1.8. Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP)
    • 8.1.9. Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (LCU billion)
    • 8.1.10. Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU)
    • 8.1.11. Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.12. Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.13. Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.14. Service Exports as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.15. Foreign Direct investment, Net (BoP, current US$ billions)
    • 8.1.16. Net Foreign Direct Investment as a Percentage of GDP
    • 8.1.17. Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion)

9. Appendix

  • 9.1. About GlobalData
  • 9.2. Disclaimer

List of Tables

  • Table 1: Norwegian Ongoing Procurement Programs
  • Table 2: Norwegian Future Procurement Programs
  • Table 3: Top Norwegian Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million) 2019-2024
  • Table 4: Norwegian Defense Cooperation
  • Table 5: Turkish Military Training Exercises
  • Table 6: Norwegian Defense Expenditure (NOK billion & US$ billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 7: Norwegian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
  • Table 8: Norwegian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
  • Table 9: Norwegian Defense Capital Expenditure (NOK Billion and US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 10: Expected and Future Projects - Land Systems
  • Table 11: Expected and Future Projects - Naval Systems
  • Table 12: Expected and Future Projects - Air Systems
  • Table 13: Norwegian Defense Expenditure Breakdown (%), 2015-2024
  • Table 14: Norwegian Defense Budget in NOK Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Table 15: Norwegian Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Table 16: Norway Per-Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
  • Table 17: Norwegian Homeland Security Expenditure (NOK Billion & US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Table 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024
  • Table 19: Top ten Norwegian Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) - 2019-2024
  • Table 20: Offset Multiplier Categories
  • Table 21: Market Entry Strategies by Key Foreign Companies
  • Table 22: FMS deals to Norway
  • Table 23: Competitive Landscape of the Norway Defense Industry
  • Table 24: Kongsberg Defense Systems - Product Focus
  • Table 25: Kongsberg Defense Systems - Alliances
  • Table 26: Kongsberg Defense Systems - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 27: Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt - Product Focus
  • Table 28: Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt - Alliances
  • Table 29: Forsvarets ForskningsInstitutt - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 30: NAMMO AS - Product Focus
  • Table 31: NAMMO AS - Alliances
  • Table 32: NAMMO AS - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 33: Kitron - Product Focus
  • Table 34: Kitron - Alliances
  • Table 35: Kitron - Recent contract wins
  • Table 36: Thales Norway AS - Product Focus
  • Table 37: Thales Norway AS - Alliances
  • Table 38: Thales Norway AS - Recent Contract Wins
  • Table 39: Umoe Mandal - Product and Services Focus
  • Table 40: Umoe Mandal - Alliances
  • Table 41: Eidsvoll Electronics AS - Product Focus
  • Table 42: Eidsvoll Electronics - Alliances
  • Table 43: Eidsvoll - Recent Contract Wins

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 : Norwegian Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
  • Figure 2 : Norwegian Defense Imports: 2014 and 2018
  • Figure 3 : Norway's Top Three Prospective Procurements/Developments
  • Figure 4: Norway National Security Threats
  • Figure 5: Norway's Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
  • Figure 6: Norwegian Defense Expenditure (NOK Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 7: Norwegian Defense Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 8: Norwegian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP, 2015-2024
  • Figure 9: Norwegian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015-2024
  • Figure 10: Norwegian Defense Capital Expenditure (NOK Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 11: Norwegian Defense Capital Expenditure (US$ Billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 12: Norwegian Defense Expenditure Share - (%) Split by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others), 2015-2024
  • Figure 13: Norwegian Defense Budget in NOK Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Figure 14: Norwegian Defense Budget in US$ Billion - Breakdown by Services (Army, Navy, Air Force and Others) 2015-2024
  • Figure 15: Norwegian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015-2024
  • Figure 16: Norwegian Homeland Security Expenditure (NOK billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 17: Norwegian Homeland Security Expenditure (US$ billion), 2015-2024
  • Figure 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets - 2015-2019 vs. 2020-2024
  • Figure 19: Benchmarking with World's Largest Defense Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
  • Figure 20: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019
  • Figure 21: Fighters and Multirole Aircraft (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 22: Land based C4ISR (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 23: Physical Security (US$ Million), 2019-2024
  • Figure 24: Norwegian Defense Procurements In Terms Of their Supplier Relationships
  • Figure 25: Norwegian Defense Import Trend, 2014-2018 (TIV values*)
  • Figure 26: Norwegian Defense Import by Country, 2014-2018 (TIV values)
  • Figure 27: Norwegian Defense Imports by Category (%),2014-2018
  • Figure 28: Norwegian Defense Exports Trend, 2014-2018 (TIV values*)
  • Figure 29: Norwegian Defense exports by Country (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 30: Norwegian Defense Exports by Category (%), 2014-2018
  • Figure 31: Industry Dynamics - Porter's Five Forces Analysis
  • Figure 32: Norway Budgeting Process
  • Figure 33: Norwegian Market Challenges
  • Figure 34: Norwegian GDP Per Capita at Constant Prices (US$), 2015-2025
  • Figure 35: Norway GDP at Current Prices (US$ Billion), 2015-2025
  • Figure 36: Norwegian Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Bn), 2005-2014
  • Figure 37: Norwegian Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Bn), 2005-2014
  • Figure 38: Norwegian Gross National Disposable Income (US$ billion), 2005-2013
  • Figure 39: Norway LCU per US$, 2015-2024
  • Figure 40: Norwegian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ billion), 2005-2012
  • Figure 41: Norwegian Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% of GDP), 2005-2012
  • Figure 42: Norwegian Total Government Cash Surplus/Deficit (LCU billion), 2003-2012
  • Figure 43: Norwegian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a % of GDP (LCU), 2005-2012
  • Figure 44: Norway Goods Exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
  • Figure 45: Norway Goods Imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
  • Figure 46: Norwegian Services Imports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
  • Figure 47: Norwegian Service Exports as a % of GDP (%), 2005-2013
  • Figure 48: Norway Foreign Direct Investment, net (BoP, current US$ billion), 2005-2013
  • Figure 49: Norwegian Net Foreign Direct Investment as a % of GDP, 2005-2014
  • Figure 50: Norwegian Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (US$ billion), 2005-2014
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