Retail Savings & Investments in India: Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with key markets across the world losing 20-50% of their value for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with consensus global GDP growth currently at 2.6% for 2020 and many experts predicting the potential onset of recessionary environments.

A similar trend is expected in India, as economic growth in the country is set to have dipped in the first quarter of 2020 and will decelerate further if the disease is not controlled at the earliest possible opportunity. The decline will have an adverse impact on all sectors, including wealth.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the Indian economy and the country's retail savings and investment market. It also highlights the measures adopted by the government to combat COVID-19. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot contrasts GlobalData's pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total retail bond, deposits, equities and mutual funds holdings in terms of value and growth rates. It also analyses the effects on HNW wealth, examining the importance of different industries as a contributor to HNW wealth.

Scope

• India's retail savings and investments are forecast to grow by a mere 0.2% over the course of 2020 as economic productivity has plummeted thanks to the impact of COVID-19. Retail equity and mutual fund holdings are expected to take the brunt of the economy's slowdown, with respective declines of 17.5% and 12.2% anticipated.
• Retail deposits are set to fare better than initially expected courtesy of a flight to safety away from risk assets. However, more pronounced declines in risk asset holdings mean our revised total retail holdings forecast for 2020 is 5.8 percentage points lower than before the onset of COVID-19.
• HNW wealth is forecast to grow by a mere 0.5% during 2020. However, we expect healthcare - the sector with the largest contribution to HNW wealth - to hold up more robustly than others. This will aid a rapid recovery, with HNW wealth growth forecast to bounce back to 13.9% in 2021.
• Also working in India's favor is the low contribution to HNW wealth of industries expected to be strongly hit by COVID-19, such as hotels, restaurants, and leisure as well as transport and logistics.

Reasons to Buy

• Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Indian retail savings and investments industry.
• Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Indian retail savings and investments industry.
• Receive a comprehensive insight into the retail liquid asset holdings in India, including deposits, mutual funds, equities, and bonds.

Table of Contents

• COVID-19 Update
• Impact Assessment
• Retail Savings and Investments
• Retail Bond Holdings
• Retail Deposit Holdings
• Retail Equity Holdings
• Retail Mutual Fund Holdings

Appendix

• Supplementary Data
• Definitions
• Methodology
• About GlobalData
• Contacts