Retail Banking in United Arab Emirates (UAE) - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with most countries around the world registering declines in their economic growth for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts as a number of countries have already officially slipped into recession.

The ongoing pandemic has affected the UAE's economy, resulting in a fall in tourism and in the domestic consumption of goods and services. According to the central bank, the country's economy shrank by 1% year on year in Q1 2020, and expects a contraction of 3.6% for the full year. However, economic activity is expected to recover in the second half of the year, supported by government stimulus measures and a rise in consumer spending, with several lockdown restrictions now eased.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the economy and the retail banking industry in the UAE. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot provides a detailed comparison between pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total mortgage, consumer, credit card loan balances as well as deposit balances in terms of value and growth rates. It also offers information on measures taken by the government to combat Coronavirus.

Scope

• The UAE faces a dual economic shock from the impact of COVID-19 as well as the collapse of the oil price.

• During the course of March the benchmark Brent crude oil price roughly halved to $22 a barrel, and figures from the World Bank indicate that prices are not expected to normalize until 2022, when they are forecast to reach $45 per barrel.

• This will put significant strain on government income, further aggravating the impact of the ongoing disruptions to economic activity as a result of COVID-19. However, conservative underwriting and supportive government measures - including stimulus packages targeting retail consumers and SMEs - should help cushion the economy and the banking sector.

Reasons to Buy

• Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the UAE's retail lending and deposit industry.

• Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the UAE's retail lending and deposit industry.

• Receive a comprehensive insight into the total consumer loans in the UAE, including mortgages, personal and credit card loans as well as retail deposits balances.

Table of Contents

• COVID-19 Update
• Impact Assessment
• Retail Deposits
• Total Consumer Loans
• Mortgage Loans
• Credit Card Loans
• Other Consumer Loans
• Job Analysis

Appendix

• Supplementary Data
• Definitions
• Methodology
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