Market Research Report
Rheumatoid Arthritis - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029
|Rheumatoid Arthritis - Global Drug Forecast and Market Analysis to 2029|
Published: December 31, 2020
Content info: 228 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disease that, due to the complex interplay of environmental, immunological, and genetic factors, causes chronic inflammation and progressive deformity of the joints over time. In 2019, the diagnosed prevalence of RA in the 8MM averaged 0.7% in adults 18 years of age and older and 1.4% in adults aged 60 and older. Early RA typically presents as a bilateral inflammatory joint condition, usually beginning in the smaller joints such as the fingers and toes and eventually progressing to the larger joints. Patients can experience flare-ups early in disease onset, which are typically worse in the morning. Over time, pain and swelling may become constant, ultimately leading to deformity.
GlobalData projects that the global RA marketplace - which, for the purposes of this report, comprises eight major pharmaceutical markets (8MM) (US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, and Australia) - will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.0% over the 10-year forecast. Global revenues from RA drug sales are expected to grow from $26.2B in 2019 to $29.1B in 2029. Global growth in the RA market will be driven by continued uptake of new products in the IL-6 and JAK inhibitor classes along with the anticipated approval and launch of four pipeline therapies. This growth will be slackened by sales erosion from biosimilars and generic tofacitinib. Over 70% of sales will come from the US; the US has a large population of RA patients (estimated 1.8M diagnosed prevalent cases in 2029) and high price tags for biologic and targeted synthetic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (DMARDs).
Biosimilar erosion will temper the growth of the RA market during the forecast period; between 2019 and 2029, biosimilars sales will increase from 5% to 28% of global sales. Due to favorable local regulations and increased access, biosimilar uptake is expected to be the highest in the 5EU; by 2029, GlobalData projects that biosimilar sales in 5EU will represent over 45% of its total sales -60% of which will come from sales of adalimumab and etanercept biosimilars.
GlobalData expects that despite biosimilar erosion, Pfizer/Amgen's Enbrel and AbbVie's Humira will remain the global sales leaders during the forecast period, amassing combined sales of $12.6B in 2019 and $9.0B in 2029. Sales of Enbrel and Humira are more likely to be protected from biosimilar erosion than Remicade (negative CAGR of 6.8%) mainly due to a lack of biosimilar availability in the US, the largest RA market in the 8MM. Etanercept and adalimumab biosimilars will not be available in the US until 2028 and 2023, respectively.
Although biosimilars may temper the impact of blockbuster biologics, GlobalData expects that the growth of the small molecule Janus kinase (JAK) inhibitor class will powerfully shape the RA market of the future. GlobalData projects that the JAK inhibitor class will continue to grow significantly over the forecast period, increasing at a CAGR of 7.2%. This growth is expected to be strongest in the 5EU, where the first JAK inhibitors, Pfizer's Xeljanz and Eli Lilly's Olumiant, only became available starting in 2017. The recent global launch of AbbVie's JAK1 inhibitor, Rinvoq, is expected to significantly expand JAK inhibitor market share, bringing in $2.2B in sales by 2029.
The late-stage pipeline for RA consists of three subcutaneously delivered biologics (the TNF inhibitor ozoralizumab, the interleukin 6 [IL-6] inhibitor olokizumab, and the granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor [GM-CSF] inhibitor otilimab) and one oral kinase inhibitor (the BTK inhibitor fenebrutinib). Key opinion leaders (KOLs) expressed measured enthusiasm for these agents-they welcomed the potential availability of new mechanisms of action but did not think that any of them would be more or even equally effective as JAK inhibitors. Of these agents, KOLs were the most enthusiastic about GSK's GM-CSF inhibitor, otilimab, expected to achieve global sales of $626.8M by 2029. All together, these four pipeline agents are expected to claim less than 5% of the RA market in 2029, equivalent to about $1.1B.
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