Mexico Gas, Power and Renewables Strategic Planning Outlook

Report Summary:

As post-pandemic recovery became apparent, energy loads in the SIN grew 4.5% compared to 2020. Furthermore, elevated oil and gas prices will incentivize more supply to come back to the market and pressure Henry Hub prices to the downside in the near-term. Following Mexico's power sector dependence on gas-based generation, LMPs will stay, on average, 4.9% below our previous forecast. However, in the current high volatility scenario context, Mexico cannot disappoint. While Congress rejected the Constitutional Reform that sought to modify existing regulations in favor of CFE, the Supreme Court ruling leaves a grey area and questions unanswered about what to expect in the future. In this latest forecast, we investigate key dynamics of Mexico's energy market evolution.