Rising Commodity Prices Continue to Propel Power Prices: Midwest Power and Renewables April 2022 Short-term Outlook

Report Summary:

The second half of 2021 was marked by power prices surging on the back of strong year-on-year increases in natural gas prices. After winter 2022's excitement was confined mostly to the northeast, gas price futures have taken off over the past month, creating upside potential across the country. With natural gas prices trading near $7/mmbtu for the next few months, expect volatility risk to remain high well into 2023. Over that same time period, the stack will continue its transition towards renewables as a large swath of coal capacity retires, primarily in PJM and MISO, while wind and solar projects are slated to come online in their stead.

Features included in this short-term outlook:

• Comments on natural gas fundamentals

• Power prices impact from multiple gas price and demand scenarios

• Highlights for some of the largest incoming new generators

• Upcoming transmission projects to monitor.