Power Prices Take a Step Back After a Volatile 2022: North America Power and Renewables October 2022 Short-term Outlook

Report Summary:

Rising commodity prices combined with coal supply issues have driven up energy prices through most of 2022. Everywhere except for ERCOT and SPP should settle higher in 2022 than 2021, due to these bullish factors. After forward natural gas curves peaked around early September, they have since trended downwards, particularly for the end of 2022 and beginning of 2023. While Henry Hub should easily clear $6/mmbtu on average this year, current expectations are for prices to average below $5/mmbtu in 2023 and below $4/mmbtu in 2024. As a result, energy prices are also expected to decline each of the following two years. This is even the case as coal supply issues are expected to continue to be a bullish factor for energy prices through the forecast horizon. In terms of the supply stack, little change from the previous outlook as natural gas, solar and wind projects dominate the interconnection queues, while about 24 GW of coal capacity is scheduled to shut down by the beginning of 2025.