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Market Research Report

North America Wind Power Outlook 2019

Published by Greentech Media Inc. Product code 735764
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North America Wind Power Outlook 2019
Published: August 30, 2019 Content info:
Description

This report studies the key drivers and barriers for new wind power installations in North America, including sub-regional market dynamics. The analysis focuses on macro conditions and regulatory frameworks, which underpin the 10-year market outlook and three forecast scenarios (bull, base and bear) for each market. Market models are illustrated, demonstrating the critical forces that are shaping demand for new wind power generation assets. Our Power & Renewables reports and data provide deep insight into the current and future state of electricity generation.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

  • 1. United States - Market outlook
  • 2. United States - Supply-side constraints
  • 3. United States - Commercial and industrial demand
  • 4. United States - Utility demand
  • 5. United States - Project economics and financing
  • 6. Offshore wind
  • 7. Canada - Market overview
  • 8. Canada - Provincial analysis

List of Figures

  • Installation forecast through 2023
  • Post-PTC installation forecast
  • Current installed wind capacity, capacity with interconnection agreements and active/withdrawn interconnection requests by ISO
  • Announced offtake agreements by offtakertype, 2019 to 2021
  • Announced US onshore firm turbine orders, Q1/2017 to present
  • US outlook scenarios: bear, base and bull, 2019 to 2028
  • Supply-demand availability for blades and tower sections with impact of delivery schedule levelization, 2019 and 2020
  • Evolution of turbine component transport equipment requirements on a quarterly basis, 2012 to 2021
  • Project timelines and IRS qualification requirements for 100% and 80% PTC
  • Excusable disruptions to project schedules per IRS Notice 2016-31
  • Pros and cons of a PTC extension in 2020 or 2021
  • Number of states transitioning from wind to solar net favorability by year, 2019-28e
  • Wind turbine CAPEX breakdown and China-specific tariff impact
  • Share of US major component imports by country, 2017, 2018 and H1/2019
  • Wind turbine CAPEX breakdown and tariff impact
  • Average US finished steel costs and sales prices, 2016 to 2022e
  • Queue activity of projects after likely one-year COD delay from queue timeline changes
  • MISO assigned network upgrade costs of projects by queue study phase with average upgrade costs of selected study groups
  • Transmission congestion on key existing wind export avenues, 2019 to 2028
  • Estimated current F1000/Private power demand as a share of total US C&I electricity demand, and current renewable share thereof, 2018
  • Estimated annual renewable energy demand opportunity from F1000 companies
  • Average wholesale power price forecast for US ISOs, 2019 to 2040
  • Utility and C&I contracts by term length, COD and size, 2012 to 2018
  • Average US ISO on-peak wholesale pricing and on-peak wholesale prices for zones with high wind penetration, 2019 to 2040
  • ERCOT West average wholesale price and wind output during sample high and low wind weeks in 2022
  • PJM (AEP) average wholesale price and wind output during sample high and low wind weeks in 2022
  • Average C&I demand scenario by technology and wind share of C&I installations by region, 2019e to 2028e
  • Diverging wholesale price captured margins steer buyers to solar in 2020s
  • Anticipated coal retirements by region and reason, 2018 to 2028
  • Key load and generation metrics during* 2019 polar vortex event in MISO Central/North
  • Utility offtake methods in the current US wind installed base and stage at which utilities take ownership of projects by year of COD, 2016 to 2022
  • State portfolio standards with wind-focused multi-state transmission proposals and 2018 US power demand by present policy status
  • US LCOE range & medians by technology, 2010 to 2040
  • Revenue gaps of wind and solar PV installations by zone, 2022 to 2028
  • Capacity factor versus hub height sensitivities
  • ERCOT West wind* net CONE and cumulative ERCOT West wind/solar installations, 2019 to 2028
  • ERCOT West solar PV net CONE and Texas cumulative wind/solar installations, 2019 to 2028
  • Agricultural use and wind v. solar economics in traditional “wind” states
  • Post-outlook ERCOT West wind net CONE and cumulative Texas wind/solar installations, 2029 to 2038
  • US Eastern Interconnect net loads during key months in two potential RE100 compliance scenarios
  • Turbine installation volumes* segmented by likely 80-20 repowering candidates with additional details on candidate models, 2008 to 2012
  • Net energy for load growth by region and total electric vehicle electricity demand, US, 2014 to 2028
  • US offshore wind forecast with alternative scenarios, 2019 to 2028
  • US offshore wind forecast by procuring state, 2019 to 2028
  • State offshore wind favorability indicators and key developments since YE/2018
  • 2019e to 2022 anticipated electricity imports to regions anticipating new offshore wind interconnection
  • 2019e to 2022 anticipated transmission congestion into regions anticipating new offshore wind interconnection
  • Offshore wind revenue details assuming 2024 projects are able to successfully claim the final-year ITC, by zone, 2024 to 2028
  • Canada wind power installation forecast and key drivers/barriers, 2019e to 2028e
  • Canada outlook scenarios: bear, base and bull, 2019e to 2028e
  • Alternate case sensitivities, 2019e to 2028e
  • Canada near-term development pipeline: capacity under construction and contracted, 2019 to 2021
  • Canada near-term wind power outlook by province, 2019 to 2021
  • Anticipated coal retirements by province and type, 2019e to 2028e
  • Anticipated Alberta natural gas production and demand with local gas price versus Henry Hub, 2019e to 2028e
  • Alberta first-year net CONE by average capacity factor, 2019e to 2028e
  • Anticipated hourly output by generation type and hourly AESO pool price during a sample peak wind season week, 2023
  • Outstanding US RPS requirements under various scenarios, 2028
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