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Market Research Report

Vietnam Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025

Published by Idem Est Advisory & Research Product code 928156
Published Content info 60 Pages
Delivery time: 1-2 business days
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Vietnam Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
Published: March 11, 2020 Content info: 60 Pages
Description

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE VIETNAM TELECOMS INDUSTRY REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insight on emerging trends that could support, strengthen or disrupt your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

‘The Vietnam Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025’ includes a comprehensive review of the Vietnamese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Vietnam Telecoms Industry Report at a Glance

The Vietnamese telecommunications market is a booming market with huge opportunities for local and foreign investors, amid a competitive environment and a positive economic outlook with an average growth of 6-8% GDP expected between 2020 and 2025. With already strong mobile phone penetration and emerging fixed broadband take-up in households, future growth is likely to remain solid despite an aging population over the long term.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow and increase its household penetration over the same period. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.

Mobile revenue is growing faster than mobile subscription numbers leading to ARPU growth as the market transitions from 2G & 3G to 4G mobile data services.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to grow through to 2025 after a marked slow down in 2018 and 2019 due to legacy 2G voice & SMS revenue pressure partially offset by mobile data growth.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio remained relatively stable between 2014 and 2018 but has been sliding in 2019 and is expected to remain at the same level through to 2025. Viettel, Vinaphone and Mobifone investing in line with revenue growth maintaining a sable Capex to Sales Ratio.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

In early 2020, the mobile subscriptions market just passed a tipping point with 3G and 4G subscribers exceeding 2G mobile subscriptions for the first time. Mobile network operators are facing competitive pressure with the market shifting from legacy prepaid voice and SMS to data-centric usage increasingly becoming the sole offering differentiator.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Vietnam has a competitive pricing compared to other countries while the average monthly download is slightly lower due to Vietnam's late market entry with 4G.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless

The fixed broadband market is experiencing hyper-growth mostly driven by three players, VNPT, Viettel and FPT all investing in full-fibre networks. VNPT actively migrated its MegaVNN (DSL) subscribers to its fibre FiberVNN network while Viettel and FPT are focusing on their respective fibre coverage.

VNPT, Viettel and FPT invested heavily in full-fibre networks opening opportunities for bundling IPTV and e-Commerce services leading the fastest broadband migration to full-fibre networks in the Asia-Pacific region.

Households growth and new FTTH investments by VNPT, Viettel, FPT and others will drive up the fixed-broadband subscribers.

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

The Vietnamese central role of the government in the telecommunications market with its three dominant players controlling over 90% of the market is limiting corporate activity. However, the government is also controlling sub-scale operators such as Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Saigon Post Tel, SCTV, among others which could be combined or merged. As the market matures, competition intensifies, sub-scale operators will struggle to gain share and are likely to look for outside opportunities to increase scale. Idem Est Research expects a wave of consolidation in Vietnam, as the Vietnamese market is maturing and is likely to face stiffer competition.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity with the government selling down VNPT and Mobifone by up to 50%. This is a momentous development in the market as until now, the government controls over 90% of the telecommunications market. Introduction of private investments, strategic investors or stock market listing will increase much-needed disclosure, transparency and accountability into the Vietnamese telecommunications market.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS REPORT:

CMC, FPT, Gmobile, Hanoi Telecom, Hutchison Asia Telecom, Mobifone, OCK, Saigon Post, Viettel, Vietnmaobile, Vinaphone, VNPT.

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics

  • 1.1. Vietnam Population
  • 1.2. Vietnam Households
  • 1.3. Vietnam's GDP

2. Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025

  • 2.1. Market Overview
  • 2.2. Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
  • 2.3. Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
  • 2.4. Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
    • 2.4.1. Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
    • 2.4.2. Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
    • 2.4.3. Capex to GDP Benchmark
    • 2.4.4. Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3. Telecommunications Operators Profile

  • 3.1. Viettel Profile
    • 3.1.1. Viettel Revenue and Profit Mix
  • 3.2. VNPT Profile
    • 3.2.1. VNPT Revenue and Profit Mix
  • 3.1. Mobifone Profile
    • 3.1.1. Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix
  • 3.2. FPT Profile
    • 3.2.1. FPT Revenue and Profit Mix
  • 3.3. CMC Corporation Profile
    • 3.3.1. CMC Corp Revenue and Profit Mix
  • 3.4. Other Players Profile
    • 3.4.1. Vietnamobile
    • 3.4.2. Other Telecoms Operators

4. Mobile market

  • 4.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.1.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.2. Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.3. Vietnam Smartphone Share, 2019
    • 4.1.4. Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
  • 4.2. Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.2.1. Historical Vietnam Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
    • 4.2.2. Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
    • 4.2.3. Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
  • 4.3. Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.1. Existing Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.2. 5G Trials and Upcoming 5G Auctions
    • 4.3.3. Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
    • 4.3.1. Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
  • 4.4. Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
  • 4.5. Mobile Speed Tests
    • 4.5.1. Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
  • 4.6. Internet of Things (IoT)

5. Broadband Market

  • 5.1. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
  • 5.2. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

6. Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments

  • 6.1. Fixed Infrastructure
    • 6.1.1. Government Plans
    • 6.1.2. Submarine Cables
  • 6.2. Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
    • 6.2.1. Getting Ready for 5G
  • 6.3. Telco Infrastructure Comparative

7. Thematics / Opportunities

  • 7.1. Going for Scale
  • 7.2. Going for Scope
    • 7.2.1. e-Commerce
    • 7.2.2. Digital Payments
  • 7.3. New Telecoms Operating Model
    • 7.3.1. The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
  • 7.4. 5G versus Fixed
    • 7.4.1. 5G Overview
    • 7.4.2. Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8. Telco Transaction Database

9. Methodology

10. Copyright Notice

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Vietnam
  • Figure 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018
  • Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market Pre-Tax Profits, 2018
  • Figure 4 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA Share Estimates, 2019e
  • Figure 5 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 6 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 7 - Telecommunications Capital & Operational Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
  • Figure 8 - Viettel Service Revenue Mix, FY14-FY18
  • Figure 9 - Viettel Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (VND bn)
  • Figure 10 - VNPT Revenue and Profit (VND tn), 2014-2019
  • Figure 11 - VNPT Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019
  • Figure 12 - Mobifone Revenue and Profit Margin (VND tn), 2014-2019
  • Figure 13 - FPT Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2014-2019
  • Figure 14 - CMC Revenue and Profit Margin (VND bn), 2014-2019
  • Figure 15 - Vietnamobile Revenue and Growth Profit (VND bn), 2014-2019
  • Figure 16 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 17 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 18 - Mobile Prepaid & Postpaid Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 19 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
  • Figure 20 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 21 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (RM), 2014-2019
  • Figure 22 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Emerging Asia-Pacific Countries, 2019
  • Figure 23 -Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data, 2017-2019
  • Figure 24 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
  • Figure 25 - Ookla Mobile Speedtest Ranking Comparison
  • Figure 26 - Spectrum available for IoT in Vietnam
  • Figure 27 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 28 - Vietnam Broadband Services by Access Technology
  • Figure 29 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 30 - Estimated Tower Market Share, 2019
  • Figure 31 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
  • Figure 32 - 5G Network Slices Structure
  • Figure 33 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

List of Tables

  • Table 1 - Vietnam - Key Statistics
  • Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators
  • Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019-2025
  • Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
  • Table 5 - Historical Viettel Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit, FY14-FY19
  • Table 6 - Historical VNPT Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 7 - Historical Mobifone Revenue and Profit Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 8 - Historical FPT Revenue, Pre-Tax Profit & Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 9 - Historical CMC Corp Revenue, Pre-Tax-Profit, 2014-2019
  • Table 10 - Historical Vietnamobile Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 11 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 12 - Vietnam Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 13 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 14 - Historical Mobile Market Blended Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 15 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (Mhz)
  • Table 16 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 17 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 18 - Vietnam Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 19 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Vietnam
  • Table 20 - Viettel, VNPT, Mobifone, FPT, CMC Telco Infrastructure Landscape
  • Table 21 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
  • Table 22 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
  • Table 23 - Telco M&A Transaction Database, 2001-2019
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