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Market Research Report

Taiwan Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025

Published by Idem Est Advisory & Research Product code 932111
Published Content info 66 Pages
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Taiwan Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025
Published: April 14, 2020 Content info: 66 Pages
Description

This report provides analyses of revenue and market forecasts as well as statistics of the Taiwan telecoms industry including market sizing, 5-year forecasts, market insights, key telecom trends, 5G and also features the following:

  • Overall Telecommunications Market by Major Operators
  • Telco Operators Profile, Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • Mobile Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Spectrum Holdings
  • IoT Market Overview
  • Broadband Subscribers & Revenue Market Overview and Forecasts
  • National Broadband Network Detailed Market Overview and Forecasts
  • Thematics / Opportunities relating to 5G, M&A and e-Commerce
  • Telecoms Infrastructure Review
  • Telco M&A Transaction Database

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY THE TAIWAN TELECOMS REPORT:

  • Benefit from the latest market opportunities
  • Understand the threats to your operations and investments and protect your company against future risks
  • Gain insights on emerging trends supporting, enhancing or disrupting your activities in the market
  • Get a full view of the competitive landscape to assess your market position.
  • Forecasts as a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the telecoms market
  • Target business opportunities and risks in the telecoms sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes and major deals, projects and investments
  • Assess the activities, strategy and market position of your competitors, partners and clients via our Operators Profiles

The Taiwan Telecommunications Industry Report, 2020-2025 includes a comprehensive review of the Taiwanese market dynamics, market sizing, market forecasts, analysis, insights and key trends.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Taiwan Telecoms Report at a Glance

Globally, the telecommunications sector is proving to be a core and essential infrastructure service to national economies, with data infrastructure becoming critical in a connected world and will likely increasingly attract a new class of investors such as large infrastructure funds. Idem Est Research expects the Taiwanese telecommunications industry to remain steady thanks to the defensiveness nature of the industry, amid the political uncertainties and an uncertain economic outlook due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

With already a saturated mobile phone penetration and fixed broadband take-up among households, future growth is likely to remain subdued with a declining working population and an aging population over the long term.

Idem Est Research forecasts that mobile subscriptions will continue to grow in the 2019-25 period and fixed broadband subscribers will also continue to grow but lower its household penetration over the same period due to fixed-wireless substitution. The ratio of the telecommunications sector revenue to GDP is declining from a peak in 2015, sliding down every year since then.

Following the market contraction over the last 5 years, Idem Est Research forecasts flat revenue growth to 2025, as long as data pricing stays rational amid the diminishing impact of declining legacy voice and SMS revenue.

Mobile subscriptions ares growing faster than mobile service revenue leading to ARPU decline after 3 years of intense competition with the market transitioned completely transitioned to 4G after shutting down 2G and 3G networks in 2017 and 2019 respectively.

Idem Est Research expects the overall telecoms market to remain flat through to 2025 after a marked decline from 2016 due to mobile service revenue pressure partially offset by fixed broadband and enterprise data growth.

Capex Investments

The Capex to GDP ratio peaked in 2014 and has been sliding since, to its lowest in 2019. Capex investments will increase again from 2020 through to 2025, as mobile operators invest in 5G, bolster their 4G coverage and increase capacity to fulfil strong data demand, increasing again Capex to Sales Ratio.

Operator Profiles

Most operators maintained EBITDA margins at the expense of revenue growth with Chunghwa losing the most share while Far EasTone and Taiwan Mobile also losing mobile service revenue share in the 2014-2019 period at the expense of Asia Pacific Telecom and Taiwan Star.

Mobile Subscribers and Revenue

As the rate of growth of net additions in mobile subscriptions slows, telecommunications providers are channelling their efforts into reducing their cost base and stabilising ARPU through new value-added services using mobile data and bundling fixed and mobile services. The proportion of postpaid subscriptions remained stable at about 80% between 2014 and 2019 while the postpaid segment is growing in popularity with SIM-only offerings and reducing the number of people holding multiples SIMs.

According to our benchmark study of mobile data pricing, India has the lowest rate per GB at just a few cents per GB, while Australia and China had the biggest cost reduction per GB mostly due to increased data allowance in plans while Singapore remains expensive. Taiwan mobile users pay for competitively priced data as mobile users recorded the largest monthly download in the Asia Pacific region.

Broadband Subscribers - FTTH Push and Fixed Wireless

The fixed broadband market is experiencing a subdued growth with Chunghwa Telecom losing share to HFC cable operators such as KBro, Taiwan Mobile, TBC and CNS. Chunghwa Telecom invested early in the 2010s in FTTx technologies while migrating its DSL subscribers to its HiNet network. Competing cable operators also invested in upgrading their cable networks bundling mobile, IPTV and e-Commerce services but falling short of upgrading to full-fibre networks limiting opportunities for gigabit speeds.

Fixed broadband penetration is forecasted to decline as fixed-wireless substitution is increasing supporting a rising number of lone-occupancy households.

Thematics - Telecoms Infrastructure / 5G / M&A / Infrastructure

Infrastructure funds, pension funds and government funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure.

Investment funds are assigning high valuation multiples to telecommunications infrastructure assets such as mobile towers, data centres, submarine cable and fibre infrastructure. This report outlines some real market examples of how investors view and value these investments with real industry examples and EV/EBITDA comparatives and benchmarks.

However, in the medium term, the telco sector is likely to experience some corporate activity. Subdued growth due to ARPU pressure compounded by low population growth is pushing telcos to look for outside opportunities to increase scale. Idem Est Research expects a wave of consolidation in Taiwan in both the mobile and fixed broadband market, after some failed merger of cable operators.

The arrival of 4G moved the Internet off our desktops into our palms and pockets, 5G could transform the network from something we carry around to something taking us around either virtually (augmented reality or virtual reality) or in reality (autonomous vehicles), the 5G outcome and benefits beyond fast connectivity remain largely unknown in terms of business models, investments required and timeline.

KEY COMPANIES MENTIONED IN THIS TAIWAN TELECOMS REPORT:

Asia Pacific Telecom (APT), China Network Systems (CNS), Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone, Kbro, National Communications Commission (NCC), Taiwan Mobile, Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC), Taiwan Star (T Star).

Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. Key Statistics

  • 1.1. Taiwan Population
  • 1.2. Taiwan Households
  • 1.3. Taiwan's GDP

2. Overall Telecommunications Market, 2014-2025

  • 2.1. Market Overview
  • 2.2. Historical Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2014-2019
  • 2.3. Overall Telecommunications Market Forecast, 2018-2025
  • 2.4. Telecommunications Market Capital Expenditure, 2014-2025
    • 2.4.1. Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
    • 2.4.2. Capex to Revenue Country Benchmark
    • 2.4.3. Capex to GDP Benchmark
    • 2.4.4. Telecommunications Capex Spend Forecast, 2018-2025

3. Telecommunications Operators Profile

  • 3.1. Chunghwa Telecom Profile
    • 3.1.1. Chunghwa Telecom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.2. Far EasTone Profile
    • 3.2.1. Far EasTone Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.1. Taiwan Mobile Profile
    • 3.1.1. Taiwan Mobile Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.2. Asia Pacific Telecom Profile
    • 3.2.1. Asia Pacific Telecom Revenue and EBITDA Mix
  • 3.3. OTher Operators Profile
    • 3.3.1. Taiwan Star
    • 3.3.2. KBro
    • 3.3.3. China Network Systems (CNS)
    • 3.3.4. Taiwan Broadband Communications (TBC)

4. Mobile Market

  • 4.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.1.1. Mobile Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.2. Mobile Subscribers Market Share, 2014-2019
    • 4.1.3. Taiwan Smartphone Share, 2019
    • 4.1.4. Taiwan Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2019-2025
  • 4.2. Mobile Revenue Historical and Forecast, 2014-2025
    • 4.2.1. Historical Taiwan Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
    • 4.2.2. Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
    • 4.2.3. Mobile Subscribers ARPU, 2014-2019
  • 4.3. Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.1. Existing Spectrum Holdings
    • 4.3.2. 5G Trials and 5G Auctions Results
    • 4.3.3. Mobile Frequencies Portfolios Analysis
    • 4.3.1. Spectrum Depth Benchmark by Country
  • 4.4. Mobile Download Data and Pricing Trends
  • 4.5. Mobile Speed Tests
    • 4.5.1. Ookla Mobile Speed Tests
  • 4.6. Internet of Things (IoT)

5. Broadband Market

  • 5.1. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Historical, 2014-2019
  • 5.2. Fixed Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025

6. Telecommunications Infrastructure Investments

  • 6.1. Fixed Infrastructure
    • 6.1.1. Government Plans and Policies
    • 6.1.2. Submarine Cables
  • 6.2. Mobile Tower Infrastructure Landscape
    • 6.2.1. Getting Ready for 5G
  • 6.3. Telco Infrastructure Comparative

7. Thematics / Opportunities

  • 7.1. Going for Scale
  • 7.2. Going for Scope
    • 7.2.1. e-Commerce
    • 7.2.2. Digital Payments
  • 7.3. New Telecoms Operating Model
    • 7.3.1. The Attraction of Infrastructure Multiples
  • 7.4. 5G versus Fixed
    • 7.4.1. 5G Overview
    • 7.4.2. 5G - Relative Capex Investments and Frequency Range
    • 7.4.3. Fixed Broadband Networks Doing the Heavy Lifting Long Term

8. Telco M&A Transaction Database

9. Methodology

10 Copyright Notice

List of Figures

  • Figure 1 - Telco sector revenue as % of GDP in Taiwan
  • Figure 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2019
  • Figure 3 - Telecommunications Market EBITDA, 2019
  • Figure 4 - Telecommunications Revenue & EBITDA pool Share Estimates, 2019
  • Figure 5 - Capex to Revenue Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 6 - Capex to GDP Ratio Benchmark, 2014-2019
  • Figure 7 - Telecommunications Capital Expenditure Spend, 2000-2025
  • Figure 8 - Chunghwa Telecom Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 9 - Chunghwa Telecom Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (TWD bn)
  • Figure 10 - Far EasTone Service Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 11 - Far EasTone Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (TWD bn)
  • Figure 12 - Taiwan Mobile Revenue Mix, 2014-2019
  • Figure 13 - Taiwan Mobile Historical Revenue Mix, 2014 - 2019 (TWD bn)
  • Figure 14 - Mobile Subscribers by Technology (000's), 2014-2019
  • Figure 15 - Mobile Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 16 - Mobile Subscriber Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 17 - Mobile Number Porting Total (m), 2013-2019
  • Figure 18 - Mobile Net Adds/Loss (000's) Comparison, 2015-2019
  • Figure 19 - Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2014-2025
  • Figure 20 - Mobile Service Revenue Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 21 - Mobile Subscribers ARPU (TWD), 2018-2025
  • Figure 22 - Subscriptions per MHz of Spectrum, Asia-Pacific Countries, 2019
  • Figure 23 - Mobile Handsets Monthly Download Data (GB), 2017-2019
  • Figure 24 - Data Pricing Trends in Asia-Pacific (US$ per GB per month), 2017-2019
  • Figure 25 - Ookla Mobile Speedtest Speed and Ranking Comparison
  • Figure 26 - Spectrum available for IoT in Taiwan
  • Figure 27 - Broadband Subscribers Share Comparison, 2014-2019
  • Figure 28 - Taiwan Broadband Net-Adds (000's) by Operators, 2015-2019
  • Figure 29 - Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Figure 30 - Taiwan Base Stations Market Share, 2019
  • Figure 31 - Telecoms Providers EV/EBITDA Ranges
  • Figure 32 - 5G Network Slices Structure
  • Figure 33 - Effect of Frequency on Range
  • Figure 34 - 5G Capacity and Coverage Layers
  • Figure 35 - Relative Capex Required for 5G Network Infrastructure Investment
  • Figure 36 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019

List of Tables

  • Table 1 - Taiwan - Key Statistics
  • Table 2 - Telecommunications Market Revenue by Operators, 2014-2019
  • Table 3 - Total Telecommunications Market Revenue, 2018-2025
  • Table 4 - Historical Telecommunications Capex Spend, 2014-2019
  • Table 5 - Total Telecommunications Capex Investments Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 6 - Historical Chunghwa Telecom Revenue, EBITDA and Capex, FY14-FY19
  • Table 7 - Historical Far EasTone Revenue, EBITDA and Capex Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 8 - Historical Taiwan Mobile Corporation Revenue and EBITDA Mix, 2014-2019
  • Table 9 - Historical APT Revenue, EBITDA & Capex, 2014-2019
  • Table 10 - Historical Mobile Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 11 - Taiwan Mobile Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 12 - Historical Mobile Service Revenue, 2014-2019
  • Table 13 - Historical Monthly Mobile ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 14 - 5G Auction Results, 2020
  • Table 15 - Mobile Frequencies by Operators and by Band (MHz)
  • Table 16 - Historical Broadband Subscribers, 2014-2019
  • Table 17 - Historical Broadband Monthly ARPU, 2014-2019
  • Table 18 - Taiwan Broadband Subscribers Forecast, 2018-2025
  • Table 19 - International Submarine Cable Systems with Landing Stations in Taiwan
  • Table 20 - Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone, Taiwan Mobile, T Star, Asia Pacific Telecom, Telco Infrastructure Landscape
  • Table 21 - Technology Specifications (ADSL, FTTN, Fibre, 4G/LTE, 4G/LTE-A and 5G)
  • Table 22 - Australia - Volume of Data Downloaded Mix (Terabytes/month), 2010-2019
  • Table 23 - Telco Transaction Database, 2001-2019
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