Quantum Computing: A Seven-year Market Forecast

This report is the first publicly available forecast of quantum computers in volume and value terms. The report examines the current activities of quantum computer companies around the world around the world and builds a forecast of both production and install base in both volume and value terms with breakouts by technology, end-user type and vendor nationality. There are also forecasts of cloud access revenues and software.

The report begins with a survey of the evolution of quantum computing technologies and products. The focus is on today's "supercomputer class" quantum computers. However, the report also briefly discusses the likelihood of the evolution of "desktop quantum computers." The report also surveys around 30 end-user companies that are already trialing quantum computers for internal use.

Table of Contents

Chapter One: Introduction

• 1.1 Background to this Report
  • 1.1.1 The Current State of Quantum Computers
  • 1.1.2 What to Expect after "Quantum Advantage"
  • 1.1.3 Emerging Potential Market Applications
• 1.2 Quantum Computing: Market Inflection Points
  • 1.2.1 The Next Three Inflection Points for Quantum Computing
• 1.3 Methodology of this Report
• 1.4 Plan of this Report

Chapter Two: Quantum Computing Technologies and Products

• 2.1 Hardware: Quantum Machines versus Annealers versus Classical Machines
• 2.2 Quantum Annealers
  • 2.2.1 Two Types of Annealers
  • 2.2.2 Annealing Process
  • 2.2.3 Applications for Annealers
  • 2.2.4 The Future of Annealing
• 2.3 Superconducting Qubits
• 2.4 Trapped Ion Computers
  • 2.4.1 How Trapped Ion Computers Work
  • 2.4.2 Trapped Ion Computers: Vendors and Future in the Marketplace
• 2.5 Spin Ion Computers
• 2.6 Topological Quantum Computers
• 2.7 Photonic Quantum Computers
  • 2.7.1 Photonics and Qubits
  • 2.7.2 The Future of Photonic Quantum Computers
• 2.8 Software for Quantum Computers: Algorithms, Programming and Error Protection
• 2.9 Factors Retarding the Market for Quantum Computing Applications and Software
  • 2.9.1 Limitations due to Core Technologies
  • 2.9.2 Timeframe for Quantum Advantage
  • 2.9.3 The Role of Error Correction
• 2.10 Performance Measures for Quantum Computers
  • 2.10.1 Key Milestones Achieved by Quantum Computers in Recent Years
  • 2.10.2 Work at Oak Ridge (ORNL)
  • 2.10.3 How Important is the Number of Qubits?
  • 2.10.4 Quantum Volume
• 2.11 Commercialization Models and Potential Clients
  • 2.11.1 Direct Purchase
  • 2.11.2 Cloud Access
• 2.12 Key Points from this Chapter

Chapter Three: Markets for Quantum Computers

• 3.1 Quantum Computing Applications
  • 3.1.1 Simulations
  • 3.1.2 Optimization Problems
  • 3.1.3 Artificial Intelligence
• 3.2 Of Hype and Business Cases
• 3.3 Financial Industry Use of Quantum Computing
  • 3.3.1 Barclays
  • 3.3.2 BBVA
  • 3.3.3 Citigroup
  • 3.3.4 Commonwealth Bank of Australia
  • 3.3.5 Goldman Sachs
  • 3.3.6 HSBC
  • 3.3.7 JPMorgan Chase
  • 3.3.8 NatWest
  • 3.3.9 Nomura Securities
  • 3.3.10 Standard Chartered
  • 3.3.11 UBS
  • 3.3.12 Wells Fargo
• 3.4 Aerospace and Defense
  • 3.4.1 Airbus
  • 3.4.2 Boeing
  • 3.4.3 Lockheed Martin
  • 3.4.4 NASA
  • 3.4.5 Raytheon
• 3.5 Quantum Computing for Transportation and the Automotive Industry
  • 3.5.1 BMW
  • 3.5.2 Daimler-Benz
  • 3.5.3 Ford
  • 3.5.4 Quantum Computing at Toyota and DENSO
  • 3.5.5 Volkswagen
• 3.6 Materials and Pharmaceutical Design
  • 3.6.1 Drug Discovery
  • 3.6.2 Toxicity Studies
  • 3.6.3 Neuromedicine
  • 3.6.4 Protein Folding Simulation
  • 3.6.5 Novel Superconducting Materials
  • 3.6.6 Biogen and Accenture
  • 3.6.7 DowDuPont
  • 3.6.8 IBM
  • 3.6.9 Menten AI
  • 3.6.10 WuXi NextCODE Genetics
• 3.7 Quantum Computing in Planning and General Management
  • 3.7.1 Save-on-Foods
  • 3.7.2 Web Searching
• 3.8 Quantum Computing in Healthcare
  • 3.8.1 Bayer and Atos
• 3.9 Government and Military
• 3.10 Quantum Computing by Region
  • 3.10.2 Europe
  • 3.10.3 China
  • 3.10.4 Japan

Chapter Four: Quantum Computer Manufacturers and Other Notable Companies

• 4.1 Firms to Watch in the Quantum Computer Hardware Space
• 4.2 Alibaba (China)
• 4.3 D-Wave (Canada)
  • 4.3.1 D-Wave Qubits
  • 4.3.2 Real Customers and Cloud Access
• 4.4 Google (United States)
  • 4.4.1 Sycamore
  • 4.4.2 Google AI
  • 4.4.3 Google's Future in Quantum Computing
• 4.5 Hitachi
• 4.6 Honeywell (United States)
  • 4.6.1 The Honeywell Quantum Computer
  • 4.6.2 Honeywell Quantum Software
• 4.7 IBM (United States)
  • 4.7.1 IBM Research and Development
• 4.8 Intel (United States)
  • 4.8.1 Quantum Development Timeline
  • 4.8.2 Collaborations
• 4.9 IonQ (United States)
  • 4.9.1 The IonQ Computer
• 4.10 Microsoft (United States)
  • 4.10.1 Microsoft's Distinctive Approach
• 4.11 PsiQuantum
• 4.12 QuTech
• 4.13 Rigetti Computing (United States)
  • 4.13.1 Aspen-7 and Ancestor Machines
  • 4.13.2 Current Partnerships
  • 4.13.3 QxBranch Acquisition
• 4.14 Xanadu (Canada)

List of Exhibits

• Exhibit 1-1: Milestones and Timeframe in Quantum Computing Future History
• Exhibit 1-2: Key Inflection Points for Quantum Computing Applications
• Exhibit 2-1: Quantum Machines versus Annealers versus Classical Machines
• Exhibit 2-2: Types of Qubit versus Firms Building Computers Based on Them
• Exhibit 2-3: Key Milestones Achieved by Quantum Computers
• Exhibit 3-1: Uses of Quantum Computers by End-User Group and Applications
• Exhibit 3-2: Quantum Computer Functionality by Type of End User
• Exhibit 3-3: Potential Uses for Quantum Computers in Aerospace and Defense
• Exhibit 4-1: Ten Firms to Watch in the Quantum Computing Space

SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST APPENDIX (Excel Spreadsheet)

Tab 1: Companies - Forecasts of quantum computer install base, computer produced and hours of cloud access provided by leading vendors

Tab 2: Hardware - Forecasts of quantum computers by technology type and end-user industry

Tab 3: Access (Cloud Services) - Forecasts of cloud services by technology type and end-user industry

Tab 4: Software (Third-party) - Forecasts of third-party software by type of computer and end-user industry

Tab 5: Countries - Forecasts of quantum computers, software, and cloud services by major countries and regions

Tab 6: Forecast Summary