Digital Europe 2030: Are Traditional Sector Leaders Coming to the Rescue of Digital Europe?

Table of Contents

1. Summary

• 1.1. Background and approach
  • 1.1.1. European groups are leaders in some traditional sectors
  • 1.1.2. Europe lagging behind in the digital sector
  • 1.1.3. Why use foresight to create development scenarios?
• 1.2. Four future scenarios for digital Europe
• 1.3. Determinants identified

2. Four scenarios for digital Europe in 2030

• 2.1. "Low Cost" scenario
  • 2.1.1. Consumers seeking the lowest prices
  • 2.1.2. A dynamic digital services market dominated by OTT players
  • 2.1.3. European vertical leaders, relegated to their core business, face the threat of OTT players encroaching on customer-related functions
  • 2.1.4. A regulatory framework that is ultimately not very restrictive
• 2.2. "Hunting in Packs" scenario
  • 2.2.1. A favourable economic and regulatory environment for European leaders
  • 2.2.2. European champions form an alliance and position themselves in the digital market
  • 2.2.3. Data sharing is fundamental to the alliance
  • 2.2.4. A new healthy balance for all players
• 2.3. "Sovereignty" scenario
  • 2.3.1. Crisis of confidence
  • 2.3.2. Public authorities work to protect the system
  • 2.3.3. A secure, less open future environment
• 2.4. "Start-up Continent" scenario
  • 2.4.1. Tech-savvy citizens want personalised services that they control
  • 2.4.2. Start-ups drive this scenario by collaborating with vertical leaders and championing openness
  • 2.4.3. A more open Europe supporting the ecosystem

3. Methodology

• 3.1. General principles
• 3.2. The three steps of the process
  • 3.2.1. Defining the foresight system
  • 3.2.2. Exploring the hypotheses
  • 3.2.3. Drawing up scenarios
• 3.3. Acknowledgements

List of tables and figures

Tables

• Table 1: European groups that are global leaders
• Table 2: European leaders by global ranking

Figures

• Figure 1: Digital markets by region, 2017
• Figure 2: Digital companies and their ranking
• Figure 3: Car2go member growth
• Figure 4: Four scenarios for digital Europe in 2030
• Figure 5: Evolving trust and use of social media, 2010-2017
• Figure 6: Willingness to share personal data in exchange for rewards, Europe
• Figure 7: OTT platform share in hotel room reservations, Europe
• Figure 8: C-V2X use cases
• Figure 9: World's top 10 media groups by turnover, 2017
• Figure 10: World market share of container shipping companies
• Figure 11: Cyberattacks worldwide
• Figure 12: Feelings towards European certification among wary consumers
• Figure 13: Feelings towards personalised services
• Figure 14: Integration of the carpooling service on Oui.sncf
• Figure 15: Retail solution by Dunnhumby, a Tesco subsidiary
• Figure16: Three steps of the foresight process
• Figure17: Six dimensions of the foresight system for the scenarios of Digital Europe 2030