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Market Research Report

48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030

Published by IDTechEx Ltd. Product code 350435
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48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030
Published: August 23, 2019 Content info: 203 Slides
Description

48V hybrid cars will exceed 9 million unit sales in 2030, over $218 billion.

New research by IDTechEx in its report, "48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030" reveals that the 48V mild hybrid powertrain is a done deal. Launched in 2016, now a flood of car models with this modification to traditional cars will keep them legal in the face of tightening emissions laws and save fuel. Indeed, it is now clear that they improve comfort, for example by powering active suspension and in some cases improve performance too. Next year the 48V repertoire will be seen from Ferrari to Volkswagen Golf and family cars in China. The Bentley Bentaygo and RAM pickup truck has the option so its universality is well proven even before we see substantial sales in the Daimler bus version. None are electric vehicles because they never drive the wheels electrically but it is now clear that they can be developed into just that. They are 48V mild hybrids heralding another big step forward, the 48V full hybrid.

The new powertrain called the 48V full hybrid promises to beat traditional hybrid electric vehicles on price by a big margin. "70% of an engine-dominant high-voltage hybrid's benefits at 30% of the powertrain cost" is what it will achieve. That means it will, at peak sales, take around $300 billion dollars of the car business by displacing conventional vehicle business even more than traditional hybrid business.

2020 will see first sales and 2023 the first substantial sales of what is still incremental improvement, albeit more costly and time-consuming than the 48V mild hybrid fix. The big prize is silent takeoff, creep in traffic, active cruising at speed and parking all with engine off but also more comfort and features. This is a prize worth delivering in this more affordable form. The companies behind this big step forward include Skoda experimenting with them for four years and Continental and Borg Warner newly offering a full kit of parts to carmakers. Continental points out that not long ago this was thought to be impossible. 48V mild hybrids were seen as a quick fix with a limited window of opportunity and that was that. Now, 48V mild hybrids are seeing a new roadmap of great improvements discussed in the report and the 48V full hybrid could take the technology past 2030. That is possibly beyond the life in the marketplace of the traditional HEV and plug in hybrid PHEV as they get throttled between 48V full hybrids on price and pure electric cars (including solar 1000km range versions) on performance and convenience. Indeed, it is now realised that incremental improvements to 48V full hybrid powertrains may possibly extend to such exotica as solar and supercapacitor bodywork, electricity producing suspension, autonomy and other features previously reserved for a pure electric end game.

The report reflects these new realities. The Executive Summary and Conclusions is sufficient in itself for those with limited time. It explains the architecture including that of the important new 48V full hybrids. It lists primary conclusions by market, technology, vehicle manufacturers and Tier One suppliers strongly involved. The Introduction explains the ongoing incremental improvements including those producing more electricity and the large number of ways it can be used to improve emissions, comfort, performance and economy. New infographics explain how these powertrains fit in with all options and you see the four key sales propositions for 48V hybrids as they evolve. Learn where 48V opportunities in other vehicles fit in and see many examples of such vehicles but discover the curious case of Japan. Launch dates and fuel for different versions in 25 brands are tabled. There is a SOFT report for the 48V powertrain and forecasts 2020-2030 for number price and value market including geographical market. There are detailed technology roadmaps to 2030.

Chapter 3 is unique in explaining the new 48V full hybrids, the work of those involved, product positioning, technology futures including whether a 48V plug in hybrid makes sense. Chapter 4 extensively appraises 48V hybrid work by manufacturer. That is 83 pages of ghost diagrams, vehicle images and commentary. Chapter 5 addresses 48V hybrid trucks preparing for market and Chapter 6 covers the technology detail for the all-important starter-motor-generators. Chapter 7 completes the report with many new infograms revealing how batteries, supercapacitors and solar bodywork form a part of the future 48V mild and full hybrid options. 30 minutes free consultancy on the topic comes with the deal.

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Table of Contents

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

  • 1.1. Purpose of this report
  • 1.2. Basic 48V mild hybrid: cleverer motor, stronger battery are key
  • 1.3. How to make a 48V full hybrid
  • 1.4. Primary conclusions: Market 2020-2030
  • 1.5. Primary conclusions: Technology
  • 1.6. Primary conclusions: Manufacturers
  • 1.7. Primary conclusions: Tier one suppliers
  • 1.8. Many ongoing incremental improvements at modest cost
  • 1.9. Some uses for all that extra electricity
  • 1.10. Powertrain options: 48V hybrid cars in context
  • 1.11. Powertrain competition to 2030
    • 1.11.1. Hit traditional ICE and HV HEV/PHEV
    • 1.11.2. Four sales propositions for 48V cars
  • 1.12. Why cars are the main focus of 48V MH
  • 1.13. Examples and timeline for cars
  • 1.14. Examples of 48V mild hybrid models
  • 1.15. The curious case of Japan
  • 1.16. Launch dates of 48V MH and 48V FH vehicles
  • 1.17. SOFT report for 48V hybrids
  • 1.18. Market forecasts
    • 1.18.1. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by number k 2019-2030
    • 1.18.2. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by unit price $ 2019-2030
    • 1.18.3. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by market value $m 2019-2030
    • 1.18.4. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by kWh 2020-2030
    • 1.18.5. 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid car by total GWh 2020-2030
    • 1.18.6. 48V MH cars by number % sold by region
    • 1.18.7. Car manufacturer 48V hybrid thrust and demand by region
    • 1.18.8. Alternative projections for cars

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. What is an electric vehicle?
  • 2.2. Powertrain competition for 48V hybrids and peak car hitting everything
  • 2.3. Hybrid options by functionality: 48V MH in context
  • 2.4. Surprisingly future proof: 48V hybrid improvement continues through 2030
    • 2.4.1. Overview
    • 2.4.2. Option of replacing turbocharger with electric supercharger for efficiency
    • 2.4.3. Overstated mild hybrid benefits against HV HEV
  • 2.5. 48V hybrid technology improvements ahead
    • 2.5.1. Functions vs architectures
    • 2.5.2. Summarised interviews on abandoning dual 12V + 48V car systems
    • 2.5.3. Windows of opportunity for launch of 48V MH car variants
  • 2.6. VW SUV roadmap , IDTechEx comment
  • 2.7. Second generation 48V mild hybrid cars 2021-5 VW, Delphi

3. 48V FULL HYBRIDS

  • 3.1. Design of a 48V full hybrid vehicle
    • 3.1.1. Market positioning and technology choices
    • 3.1.2. Primitive 48V full hybrid: Skoda
    • 3.1.3. 48V full hybrid with maximum benefits
  • 3.2. Continental 48V full hybrid car
  • 3.3. Borg Warner 48V full hybrid car
  • 3.4. 48V Plug-in PHEV?
  • 3.5. Eaton 48V full hybrid truck

4. 48V MH CARS BY MANUFACTURER

  • 4.1. Alfa Romeo Italy
  • 4.2. Aston Martin Lagonda UK
  • 4.3. Audi Germany
  • 4.4. Bentley UK
  • 4.5. BMW Germany
  • 4.6. Buick USA
  • 4.7. Cadillac USA
  • 4.8. Chang'an Motors China
  • 4.9. FAW China
  • 4.10. FCA USA/ Italy
  • 4.11. Ferrari Italy
  • 4.12. Ford USA
  • 4.13. Geely China
  • 4.14. General Motors USA
  • 4.15. Honda Japan
  • 4.16. Hyundai Korea
  • 4.17. Jaguar Land Rover UK
  • 4.18. Jeep USA
  • 4.19. Kia Korea
  • 4.20. Mahindra & Mahindra India
  • 4.21. Mazda Japan
  • 4.22. Mercedes-Benz Germany
  • 4.23. MG Morris Garages India
  • 4.24. Mitsubishi Motors Japan
  • 4.25. Nissan Japan
  • 4.26. Porsche Germany
  • 4.27. PSA France
  • 4.28. RAM USA
  • 4.29. Renault France
  • 4.30. SAIC-GM China
  • 4.31. Subaru Japan
  • 4.32. SsangYong Korea
  • 4.33. Skoda Czech Republic
  • 4.34. Suzuki Japan
  • 4.35. Tata Motors India
  • 4.36. Toyota Japan
  • 4.37. Volkswagen Germany
  • 4.38. Volvo Motors Sweden

5. 48V MH TRUCKS

  • 5.1. Volvo Group
  • 5.2. Class 8 trucks: Nikola fuel cell left or Tesla battery right?
  • 5.3. US DOE Supertruck program
  • 5.4. AVID first 48V hybrid truck
  • 5.5. Renault

6. MOTOR GENERATORS

  • 6.1. Rotating electric machines REM: e-machines
    • 6.1.1. Technology choices
    • 6.1.2. Great improvements needed and possible
  • 6.2. Evolution to multifunctional rotating machines
  • 6.3. Ssangyong, Bosch, Federal Mogul CPT and other views
  • 6.4. Bosch "E-Machine"
  • 6.5. Federal Mogul Powertrain CPT
  • 6.6. Delphi 48V MH motor generator
  • 6.7. Mercedes
  • 6.8. Borg Warner
  • 6.9. Volabo

7. BATTERIES, SUPERCAPACITORS, PHOTOVOLTAICS

  • 7.1. Overview
  • 7.2. Better batteries and supercapacitors coming: W/kg vs Wh/kg
  • 7.3. Geely and Maxwell announcements
  • 7.4. Some benefits of supercapacitors
  • 7.5. Supercapacitors in the automotive sector: examples
  • 7.6. Supercapacitors in the on-road automotive sector 2010-2030
  • 7.7. Powertrain penetration by supercapacitors
  • 7.8. Supercapacitors and their derivatives: device physics
  • 7.9. Structural supercapacitors ZapGo, Lamborghini, MIT, Imperial College
  • 7.10. Photovoltaic bodywork
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