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Market Research Report

Fuel Cell Vehicles 2019-2029

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Fuel Cell Vehicles 2019-2029
Published: September 30, 2018 Content info: 533 Slides
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Title:
Fuel Cell Vehicles 2019-2029
New markets and applications.

Fuel cells have been in the making for decades. Will 2019 be their pivotal year?

A fuel cell is a device that controls a combustion process by electrochemical means. As the fuel used is not a conventional one like petrol or diesel, it possible to have no CO2 emissions if hydrogen is used as fuel. Fuel cells have long been announced to be on the brink of commercialisation, but so far, market penetration has been negligible They are commercially unsuccessful in vehicles beyond a few thousand purchased for material handling vehicles, notably forklifts, in the USA sometimes without financial assistance. A few thousand had been sold as cars by the end of 2017, mostly to institutions on a non-commercial basis. Fuel cells are commercially successful in stationary applications.

Fuel cell buses and cars are still outsold by a factor of about one hundred by pure electric buses and cars. Rather than simply follow the views of companies such as Tesla that are 100% pure electric, it is salutary to note what the formerly leading enthusiasts for on-road fuel cells have said recently.

Fuel cells in off road vehicles, marine and aircraft applications have performed quite well but are not yet adopted in volume. Overall, IDTechEx fears that those OEMs making on-road vehicles will be impeded in the now headlong race into pure electric powertrains if a significant amount of their R&D funds are devoted to FC.

This report concerns fuel cells (FC) for powering the travel of fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) whether by land, water or air. It is intended for those seeking to invest, support, develop, make, sell or use them and their materials and associated services. It will also assist those participating in the value chain of alternatives such as batteries and supercapacitors to understand the considerable opportunities for both collaborative use of their components with fuel cells and scope for common technologies. The window of opportunity for fuel cells in mainstream vehicles is now closing. Any more slipped timescales and some big fuel cell write-offs will be looming in the opinion of IDTechEx.

In this 530-page report, IDTechEx details the main market opportunities in the electric vehicle space, by analysing 9 key EV segments like cars, buses, trucks, drones, ships, and trains. The technological efforts of all major European, American, and Asian players, as well as fuel cell manufacturers and newcomers, are presented in detail, together with our signature 10-year market forecasts covering FCEV demand in terms of units, megawatt (MW), million USD, and kilograms of platinum catalyst needed.

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Table of Contents

Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • 1.1. Executive summary and conclusions
  • 1.2. The end game
  • 1.3. Assessment of best initial markets given current fuel cell limitations
  • 1.4. The most active countries and companies
  • 1.5. The most suitable countries for fuel cell road vehicles
  • 1.6. Hype curve and attitude by company
  • 1.7. Window of opportunity for road vehicles
  • 1.8. The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking
  • 1.9. Commercial and off-road technology roadmap
  • 1.10. Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 for 9 EV categories
  • 1.11. Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 ($M) for 8 EV categories
  • 1.12. Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 ($M) for trucks
  • 1.13. Fuel cell market potential 2019-2029 ($M) for 9 EV categories

2. INTRODUCTION

  • 2.1. Urban pollution
  • 2.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
  • 2.3. CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
  • 2.4. GHG emissions from transport, EU-28, 2015
  • 2.5. Final energy consumption in the EU-28 (mtoe), 2015
  • 2.6. Tackling local and global pollution
  • 2.7. Driving factors for vehicle electrification
  • 2.8. The need for electric powertrains
  • 2.9. Some reasons for adopting electric powertrains
  • 2.10. Electric car powertrain evolution
  • 2.11. The saga of the future of on-road automobile industry: new race to pure electric
  • 2.12. Enter Fuel Cells!
  • 2.13. Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells!
  • 2.14. Searching for a USP
  • 2.15. Forecasts by platinum producers
  • 2.16. Battery-powered vs. Fuel Cell Vehicles in 2017
  • 2.17. Fuel cell system costs ($/kW)

3. INDUSTRY OPINIONS ON FUEL CELLS

  • 3.1. Some positives in 2017
  • 3.2. Some FC vehicle alliances
  • 3.3. Toyota and BMW
  • 3.4. Toyota
  • 3.5. Toyota opens patents
  • 3.6. BMW
  • 3.7. Mitsubishi Motors
  • 3.8. Mercedes-Benz
  • 3.9. Suzuki
  • 3.10. Nissan
  • 3.11. Honda / General Motors
  • 3.12. Hyundai speeds up its FCV program
  • 3.13. Nikola Motor
  • 3.14. Hydrogenics
  • 3.15. Ballard Power Systems
  • 3.16. Fuel cell vehicles enter serious production

4. POLICY INITIATIVES FOR FUEL CELLS

  • 4.1. Financial incentives
  • 4.2. National and regional FC vehicle initiatives
  • 4.3. Examples of Policies Supporting FCEVs and Hydrogen Infrastructure Development
  • 4.4. USA
  • 4.5. China
  • 4.6. Chinese FCEVs are several years behind BEVs
  • 4.7. Long term FCEV ambitions in China
  • 4.8. South Africa
  • 4.9. South Korea
  • 4.10. Brazil
  • 4.11. Europe
  • 4.12. UK
  • 4.13. Germany
  • 4.14. Nordic countries
  • 4.15. Other countries in Europe
  • 4.16. India
  • 4.17. Iran, Turkey, Thailand and Malaysia
  • 4.18. Japan

5. WHAT ARE FUEL CELLS?

  • 5.1. Definition of fuel cell
  • 5.2. The fuel cell option
  • 5.3. PEM fuel cell schematic
  • 5.4. What is an electric vehicle fuel cell?
  • 5.5. Cost and performance improvements of fuel cells
  • 5.6. Fuel Cells and economies of scale
  • 5.7. Bipolar plates
  • 5.8. Bipolar plate production
  • 5.9. Issues - gas contamination
  • 5.10. Fuel cells vs. Li-ion batteries vs. supercapacitors
  • 5.11. Need to go via hydrogen? Latest debate
  • 5.12. Situation today
  • 5.13. Comparison with other range extenders
  • 5.14. Fuel cells, batteries and multiple energy harvesting are allies
  • 5.15. 'Hydrogen as a vector toward the sustainable society'
  • 5.16. Classification of energy storage systems by energy form
  • 5.17. Power comparison of different energy storage technologies
  • 5.18. Special requirements: example fuel cells
  • 5.19. Fuel cell system in a 120kW bus
  • 5.20. Fuel cell electric vehicle issues lying ahead
  • 5.21. Cold performance

6. TYPES OF FUEL CELLS

  • 6.1. Cactus-inspired skin gives electric cars a spike
  • 6.2. Fuel cell types covered
  • 6.3. PEM Fuel cells
  • 6.4. Microbial fuel cells
  • 6.5. Why do fuel cells cost so much?
  • 6.6. Main fuel cell suppliers and their gross revenue
  • 6.7. Fuel cell market size (2017)
  • 6.8. Plug Power acquires American Fuel Cell

7. FUEL CELLS VS. BATTERIES

  • 7.1. Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles
  • 7.2. Honda and fuel cells + supercapacitors
  • 7.3. Suitability of different electric powertrains in replacing internal combustion traditional powertrains
  • 7.4. Fuel cell system architecture for vehicles
  • 7.5. Fuel cell system for 160 kW bus (e-net)
  • 7.6. Layout of bus fuel cell system
  • 7.7. Basic car fuel cell system
  • 7.8. PAC-carII fuel economy car fuel cell system and electricity system
  • 7.9. Battery pure electric vehicle system within vehicle energy management functions shown for comparison
  • 7.10. Battery or supercapacitor across the fuel cell?
  • 7.11. Use of battery or supercapacitor across fuel cell in vehicle
  • 7.12. How and why many add supercapacitors
  • 7.13. Configuration of fuel cell with supercapacitor
  • 7.14. The powertrain of a battery pure electric car top (Tesla S - battery as floor) of about 350 miles range compared with a fuel cell car (Toyota Mirai, extra radiator not shown) of similar range
  • 7.15. Electrification with lithium-ion battery or fuel cell system

8. HYDROGEN GENERATION AND REFUELLING

  • 8.1. Developing Hydrogen Refuelling Infrastructure
  • 8.2. Federal Highway Administration's Hydrogen Refueling Map
  • 8.3. Alternative fuels generation - 2030 vs. 2050
  • 8.4. How bio-waste generates hydrogen
  • 8.5. Standards collaboration
  • 8.6. Fuel price and diversity of supply issues
  • 8.7. Analysis of energy issue as presented by Honda in 2015
  • 8.8. Participants and achievements
  • 8.9. Sustainable society with strong hydrogen involvement
  • 8.10. Floating solar fuels rig for seawater electrolysis
  • 8.11. Objectives for energy sources and fuels, appropriate powertrains
  • 8.12. Objectives for energy sources and fuels, appropriate powertrains
  • 8.13. Hydrogen plans
  • 8.14. Floating solar fuels rig for seawater electrolysis
  • 8.15. Regenerative fuel cell system for vehicles and HRS
  • 8.16. Storage of hydrogen in vehicles
  • 8.17. Sources of hydrogen, progress towards green hydrogen
  • 8.18. Toyota view of potential sources of hydrogen
  • 8.19. H2 refuelling global network
  • 8.20. Solar hydrogen stations
  • 8.21. FC Vehicle to house emergency power
  • 8.22. 'Hydrogen as a vector toward the sustainable society'
  • 8.23. Green hydrogen
  • 8.24. Honda promotion of the hydrogen cycle for vehicles
  • 8.25. Energy and work synchronization
  • 8.26. Situation today
  • 8.27. Hydrogen refuelling station schematics
  • 8.28. Hydrogen refuelling station example
  • 8.29. CapEx required to set up an HRS
  • 8.30. Cost of Hydrogen at the nozzle
  • 8.31. Compressed vs. Liquid Hydrogen
  • 8.32. Hydrogen: HRS deployment, viable green sources, price trends
  • 8.33. Hydrogen: HRS deployment, viable green sources, price trends
  • 8.34. Comparison of efficiencies
  • 8.35. Comparison between pure electric battery power trains and fuel cell + battery ones (1/2)
  • 8.36. Comparison between pure electric battery power trains and fuel cell + battery ones (2/2)
  • 8.37. Energy density (Wh/kg) - fuel cell vs. battery
  • 8.38. Energy density (Wh/L) - fuel cell vs. battery
  • 8.39. Cost per kWh - fuel cell vs. battery
  • 8.40. Refuel/recharge time - fuel cell vs. battery
  • 8.41. Conference comment
  • 8.42. New water-splitting method could open path to hydrogen economy
  • 8.43. Scientists harness solar power to produce clean hydrogen from biomass
  • 8.44. Hydrogen infrastructure headed for adequate levels but FC vehicle output badly behind plan - news in 2017

9. FUEL CELL CARS

  • 9.1. Hyundai Motor, Audi join hands for fuel cell technology
  • 9.2. Fuel cell cars in Germany
  • 9.3. Honda Clarity fuel cell car exhibited at EVS29 Montreal Canada June 2016
  • 9.4. 2015 Toyota Mirai schematic
  • 9.5. 2018 Toyota Mirai schematic
  • 9.6. Cost reduction of the Toyota Mirai 2008-2015
  • 9.7. Current status and potential
  • 9.8. Progress towards success
  • 9.9. Lessons from mass market over-optimism in the past
  • 9.10. Lessons from mass market over-optimism in the past
  • 9.11. Value proposition
  • 9.12. FC car manufacturers and integrators
  • 9.13. Belenos Clean Power Holding
  • 9.14. BMW
  • 9.15. Daimler
  • 9.16. Extracts of Daimler presentation on fuel cell cars 2014-5
  • 9.17. Daimler next gen Fuel Cell Cars
  • 9.18. Daimler FC performance improvement
  • 9.19. Daimler reduction of Platinum content
  • 9.20. Ford
  • 9.21. GM
  • 9.22. GreenGT
  • 9.23. Honda
  • 9.24. Hyundai
  • 9.25. Hyundai next-generation hydrogen fuel cell system
  • 9.26. ITM Power
  • 9.27. Nissan
  • 9.28. Michelin
  • 9.29. Riversimple
  • 9.30. Riversimple fuel cell car
  • 9.31. Toyota
  • 9.32. Toyota view of positioning of fuel cell vehicles
  • 9.33. Toyota Mirai
  • 9.34. Toyota Mirai
  • 9.35. Mirai possible price reduction based on cost reduction.
  • 9.36. Toyota FCV history
  • 9.37. Toyota fuel cell system and Mirai architecture
  • 9.38. Pocket Mirai
  • 9.39. VW Group including Audi
  • 9.40. Volkswagen presentation in Taiwan
  • 9.41. Other approaches
  • 9.42. Plans for launch of fuel cell cars.
  • 9.43. Honda fuel cell vehicles

10. FUEL CELL BUSES

  • 10.1. Several purposes
  • 10.2. Gaps in market: future prospects
  • 10.3. Battery bus is rival or complementary?
  • 10.4. Window of opportunity: necessary actions
  • 10.5. Commercial fuel cell buses
  • 10.6. FC buses around the world
  • 10.7. Structure of Toyota FC bus
  • 10.8. Fuel Cell Electric Buses in Operation in Europe
  • 10.9. The JIVE Project
  • 10.10. Fuel Cell Electric Buses in Operation in the United States
  • 10.11. SunLine Transit - new long-range fuel-cell range-extended electric bus
  • 10.12. Fuel cell electric bus schematic
  • 10.13. Ambitious timelines, disappointing results
  • 10.14. Daimler's old technology roadmap for new bus technologies
  • 10.15. US Targets
  • 10.16. US evaluations
  • 10.17. Daimler view of work ahead
  • 10.18. Daimler view of work ahead
  • 10.19. Tremendous advances: Daimler examples
  • 10.20. Technical advances past and future of Daimler fuel cell vehicles
  • 10.21. Modular fuel cell strategy of Daimler
  • 10.22. Hydrogen fuelling stations according to Daimler
  • 10.23. Hydrogen infrastructure in Germany
  • 10.24. Daimler program 2015-2025
  • 10.25. Daimler fuel cell buses into production by 2018
  • 10.26. Smaller fuel cells in buses: fewer trials needed
  • 10.27. Fuel cell bus trials 1991-2014 showing power kW by project. Record year shown green; largest power shown orange.
  • 10.28. Scepticism to overcome
  • 10.29. Percentage interest in different powertrains by bus operators
  • 10.30. Fuel cell powered Hyundai bus on trial in Australia
  • 10.31. Trials 2011-2015
  • 10.32. Commitment in Europe
  • 10.33. Daimler Citaro bus
  • 10.34. Mercedes-Benz Citaro Fuel Cell Hybrid Bus
  • 10.35. Commitment in the USA
  • 10.36. Flint MTA testing Proterra hydrogen fuel cell bus prototype for one year
  • 10.37. Commitment in China

11. FUEL CELL TRUCKS

  • 11.1. Differences between e-car and e-truck
  • 11.2. Fuel cell trucks
  • 11.3. The need for long range beyond range extenders
  • 11.4. Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
  • 11.5. FedEx
  • 11.6. Loop Energy
  • 11.7. Delivery trucks
  • 11.8. Renault H2 Maxity Electric truck powered by batteries and Symbio fuel cell
  • 11.9. What fuel cell vans used to look like
  • 11.10. What fuel cell vans look like today
  • 11.11. Fuel cell trucks in China
  • 11.12. Fuel cells and trucks today
  • 11.13. Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - driving range
  • 11.14. Are batteries viable for long-haul?
  • 11.15. Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - cost
  • 11.16. Batteries vs. Fuel Cells - efficiency
  • 11.17. Guide to Hydrogen Truck Refuelling
  • 11.18. Hydrogen refuelling station
  • 11.19. Fuel cell-battery hybrid systems
  • 11.20. Anheuser-Busch Makes Record Order of 800 Nikola Trucks
  • 11.21. Ballard and Kenworth
  • 11.22. Ballard Fuel Cell Module to Power Hybrid UPS Delivery Van Trial Program in California
  • 11.23. Ballard and Hyster-Yale
  • 11.24. Transpower
  • 11.25. ULEM Co
  • 11.26. Nikola and Bosch partnership - hydrogen fuel cell
  • 11.27. DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans
  • 11.28. Keyou
  • 11.29. Fuel Cell vehicle demonstration projects
  • 11.30. How many km do trucks travel in a year and in a day
  • 11.31. Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies
  • 11.32. Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks
  • 11.33. Hydrogen-powered trucks at Battery Japan 2018

12. FUEL CELLS FOR AVIATION

  • 12.1. News from the aviation industry
  • 12.2. The HY4 fuel cell aircraft
  • 12.3. Aircraft
  • 12.4. Lange aviation fuel cell aircraft trialled in Germany
  • 12.5. Cost comparison by NASA
  • 12.6. NASA cost comparison of a gasoline and fuel cell plane.
  • 12.7. Fuel cell surveillance airship
  • 12.8. Fuel cell jet aircraft
  • 12.9. Airport GSE
  • 12.10. University of Sydney
  • 12.11. Fuel cell aircraft trial: Boeing and partners
  • 12.12. Airliner becomes an electric vehicle when on the ground
  • 12.13. New Airbus autonomous aircraft
  • 12.14. DLR project for HY4 four-passenger fuel cell aircraft
  • 12.15. Hybrids should have been first
  • 12.16. Hybrids: running before you can walk
  • 12.17. Ballard - drones and hydrogen fuel cells
  • 12.18. Ballard - drones and high power energy harvesting
  • 12.19. Intelligent Energy - drones and fuel cells
  • 12.20. Intelligent Energy 1.6 kW UAV fuel cell module
  • 12.21. Intelligent Energy 650W UAV fuel cell module
  • 12.22. Fuel cells vs. batteries for aviation
  • 12.23. Fuel cell military drones
  • 12.24. How to optimise fuel cells for aviation purposes
  • 12.25. Fuel cell with on-board reformer
  • 12.26. Lange Research - Antares E2
  • 12.27. Intelligent Energy - planes and fuel cells
  • 12.28. Energy storage cost comparison for drones
  • 12.29. Energy storage cost comparison for drones
  • 12.30. Flight time with fuel cells
  • 12.31. Flight time with batteries vs. fuel cells

13. FUEL CELLS FOR MARINE VEHICLES

  • 13.1. Early work on fuel cells for waterborne vehicles
  • 13.2. Recent news from the marine EV sector
  • 13.3. Underwater
  • 13.4. GGZEM Set to Build First Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vessel in US
  • 13.5. Echandia Marine: The Fastest Fuel Cell Ferry
  • 13.6. ABB: Fuel Cell Systems For Shipping
  • 13.7. On water
  • 13.8. Energy Observer (France)
  • 13.9. Fiskerstrand (Norway)
  • 13.10. Brodrene (Norway)
  • 13.11. Viking Cruises (Norway)

14. FUEL CELLS IN OTHER VEHICLES

  • 14.1. Material Handling Equipment
  • 14.2. ICE vs. battery vs. fuel cell in forklifts
  • 14.3. Fuel cells vs. lead acid batteries
  • 14.4. Fuel cell forklifts: the first volume success
  • 14.5. Forklift classifications
  • 14.6. Forklift companies' market share
  • 14.7. Market analysis
  • 14.8. A look at many FC forklifts across the world
  • 14.9. Jungheinrich
  • 14.10. Still - fuel cells and supercapacitors
  • 14.11. Still and Hamburg Airport
  • 14.12. Linde
  • 14.13. Toyota
  • 14.14. Toyota
  • 14.15. Hyster Yale
  • 14.16. Plug Power transforms the industry
  • 14.17. Asia Pacific Fuel Cell Technologies APFCT
  • 14.18. Fuel cells to replace diesel trains in Germany
  • 14.19. Alstom - Hydrogen train first successful run
  • 14.20. Alstom electrifies trains for rural regions using fuel cells
  • 14.21. Coradia iLint
  • 14.22. Hydrogen train in Norway
  • 14.23. Motor scooters
  • 14.24. Fuel cell scooters in Taiwan
  • 14.25. Charging scooter with hydrogen
  • 14.26. Ballard presentation
  • 14.27. Hydrogenics
  • 14.28. Intelligent Energy
  • 14.29. Intelligent Energy 100 kW fuel cell for vehicles such as buses
  • 14.30. Intelligent Energy - Suzuki
  • 14.31. Intelligent Energy - London Taxi
  • 14.32. Nuvera - NACCO Materials Handling USA
  • 14.33. Transition to cars
  • 14.34. Nuvera - NACCO Materials Handling
  • 14.35. Proton Motor Fuel Cell
  • 14.36. Fuel Cell Vehicles for the Military Segment

15. MARKET FORECASTS 2019-2029

  • 15.1. Platinum Group Metal (PGM) catalyst forecasts 2019-2029
  • 15.2. Platinum Group Metal (PGM) catalyst forecasts 2019-2029
  • 15.3. Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029
  • 15.4. Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.5. Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.6. Fuel cells in forklifts 2019-2029 ($M)
  • 15.7. Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029
  • 15.8. Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.9. Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.10. Fuel cells in cars 2019-2029 ($M)
  • 15.11. Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029
  • 15.12. Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.13. Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.14. Fuel cells in buses 2019-2029 ($M)
  • 15.15. Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029
  • 15.16. Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.17. Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.18. Fuel cells in trucks 2019-2029 ($M)
  • 15.19. Fuel cells in drones and airplanes 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.20. Fuel cells in drones and airplanes 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.21. Fuel cells in drones and airplanes 2019-2029 ($M)
  • 15.22. Fuel cells in boats and ships 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.23. Fuel cells in boats and ships 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.24. Fuel cells in boats and ships 2019-2029 ($M)
  • 15.25. Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029
  • 15.26. Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029 (000's units)
  • 15.27. Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029 (MW)
  • 15.28. Fuel cells in trains 2019-2029 ($M)
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