Energy Storage for Electric Buses and Trucks 2019-2029

The new IDTechEx report, "Energy Storage for Electric Buses and Trucks 2019-2029" is for all in the value chains from investors and material suppliers to systems integrators. It reflects the fact that the requirement for energy storage in buses and trucks is similar and these markets are growing rapidly. In a series of waves, the storage demand is powering upwards to over $200 billion in 2029 with buses and delivery vans already well into electrification, even to the point of pure electric versions with large batteries dominating. Now trucks are a focus and their potential is largest of all. The world has ten times as many trucks as buses. However, the report reveals over 1.5 million school buses being electrified last of all. Reflecting the preferences emerging, the report looks particularly at pure electric versions, the end game, but the much smaller energy storage for hybrids losing market share are also covered.

Yes, it finds that lithium-ion batteries will continue to dominate but appraise ongoing safety and supply risks not least because of rapid redesign of every part. Uniquely, the report surfaces the two radical advances in supercapacitors which will make them more like ideal batteries able to take more market share and why. Learn how fuel cells are succeeding best in the largest trucks and how all these technologies combine and improve over the coming decade, as clarified in new infograms, technology roadmaps and detailed forecasts for many types of bus and truck.

As usual, the research is carried out by globally travelled multi-lingual IDTechEx analysts who interview in local languages. Updating is continuous so you always get the latest; this report was entirely written in late 2018-2019 using inputs from research and industry leaders, privileged databases and other sources including IDTechEx conferences on the subject. IDTechEx analysts are recognised as global experts themselves: we are part of the community so we have the inside track. We are also free of evangelising: indeed we reveal six ways the capacity and cost of the energy storage will be reduced in later years while retaining vehicle performance.

The report starts with a detailed Executive Summary and Conclusions for those in a hurry needing the essence of the findings and predictions, the bad news and good. The dynamics of the industry is clarified such as when vehicle technology achieves the killer blow of lower up-front price of ever larger bus and truck EVs as measured in kWh. Typical battery and supercapacitor parameters are compared including for the versions emerging in robot micro-buses. See the statistics, even for school buses, and the forecasts of battery and supercapacitor energy density improvement, penetration of different lithium-ion chemistries into the many vehicle sub-sectors and so on.

The Introduction then looks at the fundamentals of EVs, emissions, powertrain options by cost over the years and progress of the battle between fuel cell and battery large trucks, embracing costs, performance relativities and more. Chapter 3 gives the detail on actual buses and their energy storage and chapter 4 does the same for trucks. Chapter 5 is a deep dive into lithium-ion batteries but this is no party line or academic treatise. We explain why massive scale up while changing anode, cathode, electrolyte and format, or most of these, is risky. Learn why each is happening.

Chapter 6 of "Energy Storage for Electric Buses and Trucks 2019-2029" will be a surprise as it reveals that there are now two credible routes in research to supercapacitors with energy density approaching that of early lithium-ion batteries yet superb cycle life, deep discharge, safety, poison avoidance and power density. Will an urban bus with no battery charge only at depot and take only minutes to do so? We have done the interviews and calculations to find out. Understand how such supercapacitors can transform adoption including in combination with fuel cells or batteries. Chapter 7 analyses the changing tradeoff of the good and bad about fuel cells and here, as elsewhere in the report, the subject is brought alive by detail of many actual fuel cell vehicles. Chapter 8 compares technical and commercial details of 140 sources of lithium-ion batteries. Throughout, the advice is to watch what is achieved, the trends and the theory rather than what people say: that way, the future winners and losers are revealed.

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Table of Contents

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

• 1.1. Purpose of this report
• 1.2. Overall conclusions
• 1.3. Urban vs inter-city: buses vs trucks
• 1.4. Powertrain options for buses and trucks
• 1.5. Pure electric vehicle viability vs energy storage kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040
• 1.6. Battery parameters in pure electric buses and trucks 2019
• 1.7. China - extra $1 billion battery market for school buses?
• 1.8. Choosing energy storage for buses and trucks: lithium-ion batteries dominate
• 1.9. Energy density improvement of energy storage systems by storage type 2019-2029
• 1.10. Battery replacement: supercapacitor viability vs capacity kWh in bus/truck 2010-2040
• 1.11. Less battery: supercapacitor, fuel cell combinations
• 1.12. Less battery: dynamically charged then energy independent electric buses and trucks
• 1.13. Less battery: the Class 8 truck battle between fuel cells and batteries
• 1.14. Market forecast 2019-2029
  • 1.14.1. Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: numbers (thousand) 2019-2029
  • 1.14.2. Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: unit (kWh) 2019-2029
  • 1.14.3. Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: gross (million kWh) 2019-2029
  • 1.14.4. Hybrid and pure electric buses and trucks: total battery market value ($ billion) 2019-2029
  • 1.14.5. LDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) 2019-2029
  • 1.14.6. LDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2019-2029
  • 1.14.7. MDV/HDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) 2019-2029
  • 1.14.8. MDV/HDV truck - Market forecasts (GWh) by battery chemistry 2019-2029
  • 1.14.9. E-truck forecasts by powertrain in California
  • 1.14.10. China commercial vehicle sales EV vs ICE 2008-2017
  • 1.14.11. North America bus sales breakdown 2009-2017

2. INTRODUCTION

• 2.1. Electric buses and light electric EVs: future urban mobility
• 2.2. Upcoming restrictions for commercial vehicles push electrification
• 2.3. Transport of people 2025
• 2.4. Urban pollution
  • 2.4.1. Types
  • 2.4.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
  • 2.4.3. CO2 emission from road transport
  • 2.4.4. CO2 emission limits enacted worldwide to 2025
• 2.5. Why go electric? Drivers of truck electrification
• 2.6. Battery choices:
  • 2.6.1. Comparison of specific energy and energy density of various battery systems
• 2.7. Cost projections in selected countries for various powertrains
• 2.8. Economic viability of several zero-emission technologies
• 2.9. Powertrain cost comparison
  • 2.9.1. China
  • 2.9.2. Europe
  • 2.9.3. USA
• 2.10. Advantages and disadvantages of electric vs. fuel cell trucks
• 2.11. Battery capacity vs gross vehicle weight
• 2.12. Battery capacity vs passenger-range
• 2.13. Passenger capacity vs e-bus weight
• 2.14. Battle between fuel cell and battery
  • 2.14.1. Overview
  • 2.14.2. Nikola fuel cell hybrid or Tesla battery truck?
  • 2.14.3. Are Li-ion batteries viable for long-haul?
  • 2.14.4. Short haul Class 8 pure electric trucks
  • 2.14.5. Some medium sized fleets of fuel cell vehicles deployed
  • 2.14.6. Primary problems between battery and fuel cell on-road vehicles
  • 2.14.7. Batteries vs fuel cells - cost
  • 2.14.8. Batteries vs. fuel cells - efficiency

3. BUSES AND THEIR ENERGY STORAGE

• 3.1. Focus of this chapter
• 3.2. Types of bus
• 3.3. Population rises, cities dominate, parking unsustainable
• 3.4. Why adopt buses?
• 3.5. Why go electric?
  • 3.5.1. Drivers of bus electrification
  • 3.5.2. Emissions cause much more injury than previously realised
  • 3.5.3. Benefits of pure electric bus powertrains and to some extent hybrid
• 3.6. Examples of leadership: focus on pure electric now
• 3.7. Bus powertrain trend, value chain rewritten
  • 3.7.1. Powertrain trend
  • 3.7.2. Value chain rewritten
• 3.8. Buses 2010-2030: an industry reborn
• 3.9. Market drivers
  • 3.9.1. Prosperity collides with urbanisation
  • 3.9.2. Changes in society and technology feed off each other
• 3.10. Traction batteries
• 3.11. Traction supercapacitors for hybrid buses
• 3.12. Traction supercapacitors for pure electric buses
• 3.13. Charging the battery
  • 3.13.1. Overview
  • 3.13.2. Example: ABB TOSA:
  • 3.13.3. Contactless charging
• 3.14. Towards energy independence: increasing bus range
• 3.15. Energy Independent Electric Vehicles EIV
  • 3.15.1. Disruptive
  • 3.15.2. Energy independent electric bus: NFH-H microbus China
  • 3.15.3. Energy positive large buses will come
• 3.16. League table of EV manufacturers 2018 $ billion: winners make buses
• 3.17. China buses go global: cost advantages
  • 3.17.1. China cost advantage plotted
  • 3.17.2. How can bus manufacturers outside China compete?
• 3.18. Cheaper to buy is the killer blow for adoption of pure electric buses 2022 onwards
• 3.19. Technologies important for
• 3.20. Bus technology timeline 2018-2040
• 3.21. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2019
• 3.22. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2020
• 3.23. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2021
• 3.24. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2022
• 3.25. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2023/2024
• 3.26. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2025/2026
• 3.27. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2027/2028
• 3.28. Hybrid and pure electric bus orders, intentions and manufacturing initiatives 2030
• 3.29. Proliferations of bus types and crossovers
• 3.30. Record bus range

4. TRUCKS AND THEIR ENERGY STORAGE

• 4.1. The worldwide freight transport industry
  • 4.1.1. Multi-modal
  • 4.1.2. Freight transport on roads
  • 4.1.3. Truck classifications
  • 4.1.4. Different segments of goods transportation by land
  • 4.1.5. Characteristics of popular on-road trucks
• 4.2. Electrification of trucks
  • 4.2.1. Market dynamics
  • 4.2.2. Electric powertrain options for trucks
  • 4.2.3. Benefits from truck and van electrification
  • 4.2.4. More carrot, more stick
  • 4.2.5. Value chain rewritten
  • 4.2.6. Ramping up electric trucks
  • 4.2.7. Pure electric vehicle adoption dynamics
  • 4.2.8. TEVA / JAC example of hybrid
  • 4.2.9. 48V mild hybrid
  • 4.2.10. Small trucks / vans go straight to pure electric
  • 4.2.11. Specialty vehicle electrification
• 4.3. Need for a systems approach
• 4.4. Hybrid upfit system for trucks
• 4.5. Design issues: battery minimisation
• 4.6. Top truck manufacturers 2017

5. LITHIUM-ION BATTERIES

• 5.1. Basic operation of a Li-ion cell
• 5.2. Current challenges facing automotive Li-ion batteries
• 5.3. The main components of a battery cell
• 5.4. Lithium-ion battery components, functions, and main materials
• 5.5. Lithium-ion battery cell, module and pack
• 5.6. Cost analysis for automotive Li-ion batteries
• 5.7. Mapping: top electric bus manufacturers and Li-ion battery pack suppliers
• 5.8. Examples of top electric buses, battery type and performance
• 5.9. LIB cell cost ($/kWh) forecasts according to IDTechEx
• 5.10. The world is building gigafactories
  • 5.10.1. LIB production forecasts (GWh/year)
  • 5.10.2. LIB production forecasts - electric vehicles
  • 5.10.3. LIB production forecasts - other markets
• 5.11. LIB market forecasts ($B/year)
• 5.12. LIB standard chemistries in 2018, 2023, and 2028
• 5.13. What does 1 kilowatthour (kWh) look like?
• 5.14. Commercial battery packaging technologies
  • 5.14.1. Comparison of commercial battery packaging technologies
• 5.15. Cooling systems for LIBs
• 5.16. Push and pull factors in Li-ion research
• 5.17. The battery trilemma
• 5.18. A quote from Thomas Edison on batteries
• 5.19. Performance goes up, cost goes down
• 5.20. Li-ion raw materials in perspective
• 5.21. LTO - Toshiba
• 5.22. Anode alternatives - silicon, tin and alloying materials
• 5.23. Cathode recap
• 5.24. Li-ion battery cathode recap
• 5.25. Inactive materials negatively affect energy density
• 5.26. Comparison between inorganic and polymer electrolytes
• 5.27. Lithium-ion batteries vs. Solid-State batteries
• 5.28. Critical aspects of solid electrolytes
• 5.29. Solid electrolytes - Toyota Motors
• 5.30. Ways to get above 250 Wh/kg
• 5.31. LGChem's view of future batteries
• 5.32. Li-ion vs. future Li-ion vs. beyond Li-ion
• 5.33. A family tree of batteries - Li-ion
• 5.34. Benchmarking of theoretical battery performance
• 5.35. Benchmarking of practical battery performance
• 5.36. Battery technology benchmark - Comparison chart
• 5.37. Battery technology benchmark - open challenges
• 5.38. Rapid scale-up with rapid change of product spells trouble
• 5.39. Safety
• 5.40. EVs catching fire get media attention, but ICEs are not immune to that either
• 5.41. Battery choices at MAN Truck & Bus
• 5.42. Bosch and batteries for trucks
• 5.43. GVI - battery packs for delivery trucks
• 5.44. EnerDel - battery packs for trucks

6. SUPERCAPACITORS

• 6.1. Types of capacitor
• 6.2. Supercapacitors
• 6.3. Nomenclature and benefits
• 6.4. Improvements that will create large new markets
  • 6.4.1. Prioritisation
  • 6.4.2. Device active structures and gaps in the market
  • 6.4.3. The dream for supercapacitors and their derivatives: power & energy
  • 6.4.4. Other planned benefits
  • 6.4.5. Better supercapacitors a real prospect from 2019 research
  • 6.4.6. Electrolyte-electrode routes to desirable supercapacitor parameters
• 6.5. Example of supercapacitors in heavy trucks
• 6.6. Iveco and supercapacitors - a cost perspective
• 6.7. Structural electronics: load bearing supercapacitors

7. FUEL CELLS

• 7.1. Fuel cell vehicles will never be mainstream
• 7.2. Status in 2019
• 7.3. Fuel cells are dead. Long live fuel cells!
• 7.4. The need for long range beyond range extenders
• 7.5. Nikola Trucks
  • 7.5.1. Winning the zero emission Class 8 orders
  • 7.5.2. Nikola and Bosch partnership
• 7.6. Ballard
  • 7.6.1. Ballard and Kenworth
  • 7.6.2. Ballard in UPS Delivery Van Trial California
• 7.7. DHL/Streetscooter also trials fuel cell delivery vans
• 7.8. Keyou

8. ANALYSIS OF OVER 140 LITHIUM-BASED RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MANUFACTURERS